September 19 CFB DFS Picks- Don’t Get Fancy. Just Chubb.
Welcome to Saturday’s late edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
If there’s something you’d like to see added or have any questions, please email us at email@example.com.
*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
Luke Falk (Washington State vs. Wyoming) – Get used to seeing Falk at the top of our quarterback rankings on a weekly basis. Washington State creates the most passing opportunities of any team in the country. Since 2012, Washington State leads all CFB teams in passing attempts (over 700 passing attempts in each of the last two seasons). Luke Falk and his core of receivers are already benefitting from these opportunities in 2015. In the first two games of the 2015 season, Falk has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s thrown the football no less than 41 times in both of those games. He threw 66 passing attempts last week, which is exactly the type of volume that we’re expecting moving forward. In the last two seasons, Washington State quarterbacks are averaging around 64 passing attempts per game. This sort of volume combined with Falk’s accuracy (69 percent completion percentage) has led to massive per game production (over 300 yards/three touchdowns per game since 2014). Falk draws Wyoming, a team that boasts a defensive unit that can’t stop the pass (ranked 98th in Def. Passing S&P+/defensive backs ranked 124th in Havoc Rate). It’s difficult to pay up for Falk on a tight pricing site like DraftKings, but there’s no need to force him there (there’s another quarterback that makes a bit more sense on that particular site). Falk is an elite option across all formats Saturday tonight.
Trevone Boykin (TCU vs. SMU) – Like Falk, we love Boykin’s usage. In 2014, Boykin averaged 38 passing attempts and 12 carries per game. He turned those 40 touches per game into Heisman-like production (300 passing yards/three touchdowns per game). He’s a bit better than average from an accuracy standpoint (61 percent completion percentage) and he’s explosive (7.9 yards per attempt). As a runner, he’s skilled as well (4.7 yards per carry). Boykin’s strong, well-rounded skill set should lead to a big night against SMU (ranked 127th and 120th in Def. Passing and Rushing S&P+, respectively), a team that gives up an alarming amount of explosive plays (ranked 125th in IsoPPP+ in 2014).