Welcome to September 2 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 2 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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September 2 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
10:38 First Base
14:11 Second Base
17:37 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
September 2 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
We’ve got three big dogs at the SP position tonight, and all in favorable spots – Max Scherzer (WAS), Yu Darvish (LAD), and Chris Archer (TB). Scherzer has a matchup against a Brewers team that is striking out 25.8% Darvish gets a Padres team that represents one of the most favorable matchups in all of DFS. Archer has a negative park shift, but the White Sox lineup against RHP is so pitiful, the 3.5 IRTA is right in line with Scherzer’s. You can make a strong case for each option, but with some expensive bats we’re enticed by, price is a driving factor. That leads us to anchoring cash games on DK with Archer and on FD with Darvish.
On DK it’s really difficult to double up on the top tier starting pitchers. We finally get Carlos Rodon (CHW) in a decent spot, facing a Rays team that is 22nd in wRC+ against LHP with a 25.8 K% that is second in MLB in that split. The game is at home leading to a still high 4.5 IRTA for Rodon, but Rodon has mixed and matched elite K rates and elite GB rates against tough opponents all season. The K rates are certainly volatile (last six starts he has three below 15.5% and three above 33%).
If you want to exchange some K upside for some safer run prevention, Jameson Taillon (PIT) is a -142 home favorite with just a 3.9 IRTA the Reds. However, we’ve been frustrated with Taillon’s recent BB rate issues (averaging four walks his last three starts), which has cost him longevity in starts. That’s tough to swallow given a K rate that is just above average. Still, at just $6,600 on FD he’s also the best cheap SP on that site to make expensive tournament stacks around.
We’re surprised by the 4.9 IRTA for Marcus Stroman (TOR). It’s a tough spot against a hot hitting Baltimore team in Baltimore, but his solid all-around skill set and a sub-$8k price tag makes him a tournament target. Dan Straily (MIA) is more expensive but does carry more K upside. Straily has a better matchup against Philly in his spacious home park, and as we’ve mentioned before, his up and down K rate leads to a wide range of outcomes, which is fine in tournaments (seven games over a 30% K rate).
Yasmani Grandal (LAD) represents the top projected scorer at the catcher position and he holds a nice lead over Wilson Ramos (TB), who’s our second projected scorer at the position. Grandal has the better matchup (Jordan Lyles) and we’re expecting the Dodgers to have an IRT of around five runs with good weather in San Diego. Grandal has a good price around the industry, but if you need salary relief Ramos is fine with the platoon edge in a good hitting environment.
The cash game conversation is largely between Grandal and Ramos in this slate, but in tournaments you can expand the player pool to include Coors Field catchers, Chris Iannetta (ARI) and Jonathan Lucroy (COL), and Chris Gimenez (MIN) as a punt on FD if he gets a decent lineup spot vs. a weak LHP.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) is the top projected scorer at first base, but Cody Bellinger (LAD) is right behind him and he’s way cheaper than Goldy on FD ($1,600 price difference). Bellinger has a matchup against Jordan Lyles, who’s allowed a .391 wOBA to LHBs since 2015. Where priced similarly (DK), we’ll give the edge to Goldy who’s in Coors Field. The latter is the best hitting environment in all of baseball, and it’ll be hot in Coors tonight (high 80s).
If you can’t quite get up to Goldy or Bellinger but want some upside, Mark Reynolds (COL) is a fine alternative on both sites. His HHR over the L15 is sitting at 41.7% and he’ll have the platoon edge tonight.
Eric Thames (MIL) projects well for us from at cheap price tags around the industry as he leads off and has plenty of power upside with the platoon edge, but this will be a more boom or bust matchup vs. Max Scherzer. We prefer to attack this one in GPPs. Albert Pujols (LAA) is in Texas facing an extreme fly ball pitcher with a home run problem (A.J. Griffin), and he’s also cheap. He’s likely a better cash game fit than Thames given the discrepancy in matchup. Teammate Luis Valbuena (LAA) is also viable on DK where he’s $3,600. Griffin is more vulnerable to LHBs. Justin Smoak (TOR) has missed the L3 games, but he’s just $3,300 on FD. He represents a nice value on that site if he can get back in the lineup.
Brian Dozier (MIN) represents the top projected scorer at second base. He’ll have the platoon edge, and in this split we have a .245 ISO baseline for him. Jose Altuve (HOU) is right behind Dozier in projection, and if he’s in the lineup for game two he can be deployed in tournaments.
Dozier is pricey though, and in a Coors Field slate with plenty of offense elsewhere it’s fine to look elsewhere in cash games. Daniel Murphy (WSH) is $3,400 on FD, which strikes us as underpriced. Since 2015, Murphy has generated a .376 wOBA and .223 ISO vs. RHP and he’s in Milwaukee, which is an upgrade in hitting environment. Even that price tag might be difficult to fit in a Coors slate, so Rougned Odor (TEX) can be used as a salary relief target. Odor doesn’t get good lineup spots anymore, but he carries strong power upside (.229 ISO vs. RHP since 2015). Odor is just $3,200 on DK.
Robinson Cano (SEA) will have the platoon edge and he’s just $3,100 on FD. We like him in tournaments. Neil Walker (MIL) looks like a relevant option (top three value on DK) with a good price tag, but we don’t want to attack Scherzer in cash games. Walker has also been a bit cold lately.
Nolan Arenado (COL) is the second highest projected scorer in this slate in a Coors game that will have temperatures reaching the high 80s. Patrick Corbin has been pitching very well lately, but we’re expecting the Rockies to have an IRT over six runs and Arenado has generated a .267 ISO vs. LHP since 2015. He’s pricey, but Arenado is viable across all formats.
We’re more likely to deploy Josh Donaldson (TOR) (platoon edge, Wade Miley sucks) or Evan Longoria (TB) (huge park shift, will also have platoon edge) on FD where Arenado might be out of reach in cash games. If shooting for salary relief on DK, Longoria is a fine route as well. Luis Valbuena (LAA) is another fine source of salary relief around the industry at the position. His context is very strong (Griffin in Arlington).
Jake Lamb (ARI) will have the platoon edge in Coors, and he’s generated a .365 wOBA and .237 ISO vs. RHP since 2015. He’s a fine alternative around the industry but the price tag feels less appropriate on DK (sub $5,000).
Trea Turner (WSH) is the top projected scorer at the shortstop position, but he’s priced out of cash game consideration. Trevor Story (COL) is a better reach in cash games given his context and the price tag feels like quite a bargain on DK ($3,500). Story is priced more appropriately on FD, where Jean Segura (SEA) is a better cash game fit. Segura is $2,700 and he’s a leadoff hitter with some speed upside.
Alex Bregman (HOU) is $4,100 on DK, and if he ends up with a good lineup spot he can be considered in cash games. Bregman has 16 HRs and 15 SBs this season.
Elvis Andrus (TEX) is a viable tournament target around the industry, but we prefer him on FD where he’s cheaper than Turner and Story.
Mike Trout (LAA) headlines a loaded OF position in this slate. Trout is the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position and the context is perfect. Trout is in Texas facing A.J. Griffin, who’s allowed a 2.42 HR/9 mark this season backed up by a 59.4% FB rate (that’s not a typo). If you can fit Trout in cash games, go for it. If you can’t, roster his teammates, Justin Upton and Kole Calhoun (LAA). The latter two are clearly underpriced on DK and rank as top four values for us on FD. If you’re looking for the Coors angle on DK, David Peralta (ARI) is the road leadoff hitter there with the platoon edge and a $4,300 price tag.
Curtis Granderson (LAD), George Springer (HOU), Josh Reddick (HOU), Jose Bautista (TOR) and Steve Pearce (TOR) represent our next tier of values. Springer’s price tag is excellent on FD ($3,700) while Granderson will have the platoon edge against the underwhelming Jordan Lyles and his HHR is up to 40% over the L15. Bautista and Pearce will have the platoon edge against Wade Miley and they carry cheap price tags around the industry. Andrew McCutchen (PIT) sticks out on FD as well given the cheap price tag ($2,700). All in all, it feels like living in the mid-tier on FD is the best route in cash games.
Cody Bellinger (LAD) and Eric Thames (MIL) have OF eligibility on DK. We prefer Bellinger, but an appropriate price tag will make it difficult to roster him in cash games on that site.
1) Colorado Rockies
2) Los Angeles Angels
The Angels may carry less ownership than Colorado because they lack the Coors allure, but as a road team they’re guaranteed nine full innings and start off against one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in all of baseball while receiving a significant positive park shift. Meanwhile the Rockies play Patrick Corbin, who we’re not staying away from but recent performances do give you a reason to fade a popular stack in tournaments (along with pricing).
3) Arizona Diamondbacks
4) Houston Astros
5) Los Angeles Dodgers
6) Washington Nationals
7) Minnesota Twins
The Nationals are one of our favorite contrarian stacks. They could get overlooked with all the huge IRTs on this slate. They receive a large positive park shift as the road team in Milwaukee. On the surface, rookie Brandon Woodruff has been impressive through three starts (1.62 ERA). A closer look shows he’s been wild and hasn’t missed enough bats, but both of those skills have been overshadowed by luck – a 92.9% LOB% and 5.6 HR/FB%.