DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his September 22 Daily Fantasy MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft – where they put players first – Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight’s action.
Where to Focus?
In the absence of any elite run scoring environment, my attention for tonight’s slate has been thrown in multiple directions. First and foremost I’m looking to take advantage of Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Adam Morgan. Morgan has been kind to opposing offenses this year, allowing a 4.43 xFIP, 34.7% hard contact and 1.83 HR/9. While the Mets don’t traditionally stand out as an offense to target, the matchup and their ability to get right-handed (Morgan has allowed a .385 wOBA to right-handers) represent a solid pool of value. Yoenis Cespedes ($9,900) has posted a .367 wOBA and a .248 ISO against southpaws since 2015 and Jose Reyes ($8,100) and Asdrubal Cabrera ($8,800) represent strong value plays just ahead of him. This trio stands out as the primary targets, but even options like TJ Rivera ($6,000) warrant cash game consideration with a solid lineup spot.
After the Mets, my attention is turning to the Cleveland Indians and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Indians have quietly posted the 12th best wRC+ in the league against left-handers and their matchup with Jason Vargas presents plenty of opportunity. With an implied run total above five runs the Indians aren’t home to the most valuable price tags, but individual values such as Francisco Lindor ($8,700) and Rajai Davis ($9,200) are worth mentioning.
The Pirates are still taking advantage of the park shift to Miller Park and tonight they have a matchup with Chase Anderson. Anderson is reverse splits by nature, putting right-handed Pirates at a bit of an advantage, but the way pricing has been attributed to the Pirates bats, I’m more inclined to stay away from the expensive options like Andrew McCutchen ($10,200). Instead, I’m still going to look to Adam Frazier ($7,500) and Josh Bell ($6,400). Frazier and Bell have occupied the top two spots in the order with notable frequency in the last two weeks and against the right-hander they should fit in again.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox for tournaments. The Tigers draw a matchup at Target Field with right-hander Ervin Santana. Santana quietly goes about his business and doesn’t often warrant stacking against, but the Tigers have posted the sixth best wRC+ in the league against right-handers and are a deep power team for daily fantasy purposes. Couple accessible price tags with high upside and you’ve found yourself a solid tournament stack. Miguel Cabrera ($10,200) is priced fully, but JD Martinez ($8,100), Justin Upton ($7,200) and company are easy to fit.
The Red Sox are never easy to fit, but they draw another matchup with a right-handed pitcher today. The Sox have built the league’s best wRC+ against right-handers and the move from Fenway to Camden Yards is actually beneficial for the Red Sox left-handers. Fitting Big Papi ($11,100) is probably out of the question but cheaper options like Travis Shaw ($8,400) or Andrew Benentendi ($6,000) emerge as ways to get exposure to a potentially lethal offense.
On the Bump..
Despite talking up Camden Yards as a great place for hitters, I’m looking at David Price ($20,800) as the top option tonight. Price faces an Orioles team that has produced the 26th best wRC+ against left-handers this year, posting a strikeout rate of 22.1%. While they can get fairly right-handed, let me remind you that over the past two seasons, Price has actually faired much better against right-handers in terms of strikeout rate (26.7%). Run prevention might not be his best attribute tonight (opposing implied run total of 3.9) but the discount over Justin Verlander coupled with a decent strikeout upside put him at the top of the list.
Verlander ($24,000) should definitely be on your radar against the Twins (middle of the pack in terms of wRC+, 21.9% k-rate) but again he doesn’t represent a lock-down option tonight. Much like Price, the implied run total against Verlander stands at 3.9 runs and since they possess similar upsides in terms of strikeout, I’m looking at taking the discount and making Price my top option.
When looking to pair a guy with him things get a little bit more tricky. Jeff Samardzija ($18,300) draws a matchup with the San Diego Padres but he is fair from a model of consistency. Samardzija does get the advantage of facing the league’s worst team in terms of wRC+ against right-handers and despite a strikeout rate under seven per nine innings, an absurd team strikeout rate for the Padres (24.9%) actually provides him with some decent upside. He’s a notable road favorite as the Padres hold an implied run total of just 3.6 runs tonight. You might not feel “safe” but the matchup makes him a strong option tonight.
Things get even more unpredictable after Samardzija. You can look to Seth Lugo ($13,200) who draws a matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies who will be experiencing a notable negative park shift away from Citizens Bank Park. Lugo has been fairly solid since joining the Mets rotation, but he’s only posted a 5.65 K/9 in his time on the bump. The Phillies have posted the league’s third worst wRC+ against right-handers and their 23% strikeout rate should give a slight boost to Lugo’s strikeout projection. It’s not necessary to completely drop down in price to pay up for one particular offensive environment, but grabbing Lugo will allow you go wherever you want on offense.
If you’re interested in completely taking on variance and accepting risk, Jose Urena ($10,400) and Blake Snell ($12,600) should be considered. Urena doesn’t possess a ton of upside, but his matchup with the Atlanta Braves is always an exploitable one. The Braves have been frustrating daily fantasy owners who continue to target them, but they still have the league’s sixth worst wRC+ against right-handers. Snell draws a matchup with a Yankees team that is taking on a big negative park shift, but the strikeout upside you dream of (9.74 K/9) takes a big cut against a Yanks team that doesn’t strikeout (second to last in strikeout percentage against southpaws). These two guys are tournament fliers only, but options you’ll sadly have to think about on a slate void of many arms.