September 24 CFB DFS Picks: If We Had a McNichols For Every TD
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
If there’s something you’d like to see added or have any questions, please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
Cincinnati @ Memphis
Game Total: o/u 66.5
Cincinnati Team Total: o/u 28.5
Memphis Team Total: o/u 38.5
Spread: Memphis -9.5
This game has the highest game total of the slate (65) and the highest team total (37) as well. The Memphis Tigers are fresh off of a big win against Bowling Green State, a game in which they scored 44 points. In their two previous outings they put up 63 against Missouri State and 55 against Kansas. This is an offense to target, but the way they spread out their touchdowns can be frustrating for DFS players. Memphis’ best athlete is Paxton Lynch, a 6’7 quarterback with a great arm. He has been incredibly accurate in 2015 (76.6% completion rate) with 818 yards, but thus far, has recorded just six touchdowns in three games. He might not throw many touchdowns (two per game so far in 2015), but he is a safe target on DraftKings with his 300+ yard passing potential. Lynch has thrown for 354 and 386 yards in his two FBS matchups this season. Lynch may be difficult to into your roster on a short slate, but he is an extremely safe option given his floor. If you’re trying to gain exposure to the Tigers’ passing game, but not break the bank, target Memphis’ receivers. Mose Frazier is the top target for Lynch. He leads the team in receptions (17), targets (23), and yardage (232). The Tigers’ offense spreads the ball around (nine different players involved on 20 touchdowns in 2015), so we consider Frazier to be an elite cash play across the industry, but with little upside as a result. Beyond Frazier, there is some debate as to who the number two option is in the offense, but target stats point to Phil Mayhue. Mayhue has been targeted 14 times in FBS action. And, while he has yet to reach the end zone, he has solid PPR numbers (four catches, seven targets per FBS game in 2015). Mayhue is best utilized on DraftKings for cash games and should be considered a great value option for DFS players, given the Tigers’ Thursday night matchup with the Bearcats (Cincinnati had the 87th best passing S&P+ last season). Tevin Jones has been targeted just six times and is a high upside player with a 23.8 yards per catch and two touchdowns on his five receptions this season. While Jones is a big play performer, he faces a Cincinnati defense that was average at yielding big plays (ranked 74th in ISOPPP+ last season). Thus far in 2015, Memphis has been committed to a running back by committee approach, with four different players carrying the ball 25+ times. This makes rostering Tigers’ backs a risky proposition, but if you must have Memphis exposure in the ground game, consider Doroland Dorceus. Dorceus recorded the most carries last game (16 compared to Sam Craft’s 11) and has a reached pay dirt in each game this season. At tight end, you have two options to target: Alan Cross (28/373/4 in 2014) and Daniel Montiel (5/39/2 in 2015).