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September 24 MLB DFS: KKKKershaw
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September 24 MLB DFS  Show Outline: 

00:46 Starting Pitchers
06:15 Catchers
08:17 First Base
10:51 Second Base
13:00 Shortstops
15:40 Third Base
18:17 Outfield
23:58 Cash Game Roster Construction and Stacks


September 24 MLB DFS PRO TIP

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

2) Madison Bumgarner (SF)

Tier Two

3) Jose Quintana (CHW)

4) Dan Straily (CIN)

5) Joe Ross (CHW)

6) Wei-Yin Chen (MIA)

Tier Three

7) Robbie Ray (ARI)

8) Ivan Nova (PIT)

In his fourth start back from the DL, we’re expecting a full workload for Clayton Kershaw (LAD), who certainly wasn’t rusty coming back off the DL (17 Ks, 1 BB in 14 IP). The undisputed best pitcher in the game is in an excellent situation at home against the Colorado Rockies who are 25th in wRC+ against LHP with a higher than average 22.6 K percentage. With Kershaw underpriced due to the shortness of his previous three starts and with a gigantic gap in our SP rankings after the first tier, he’s a lock in cash games for us.

While we prefer Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner (SF) finds himself in a near perfect situation in San Diego against the Padres, a team that has fallen to 20th in wRC+ against LHP (were fifth around the halfway mark) and will strike out a ton (25.3 percent of the time). He’s a fine pivot in tournaments or if you want to diversify in cash games (would recommend more exposure to Kershaw, but a 2:1 ratio isn’t unreasonable).

If we get guys in the right lineup spots, you might actually be able to pair Kershaw and Bumgarner together in cash games, ensuring yourself a really high floor. If that doesn’t happen or you feel you leave yourself too short on the offensive side of things, you’ll have to take a risk on one of the tier two options. Dan Straily (CIN) possesses the most upside given the K potential against a heavily right handed Brewers team. However, he’s definitely a run prevention risk and the price isn’t discounted. That might push you all the way down to Wei-Yin Chen (MIA), who has limited upside but likely doesn’t hurt you against Atlanta for just $5,500.

Robbie Ray (ARI) has our highest projected K rate outside of the tier one options and is a great tournament play on both sites.

Catcher Rankings

1) Welington Castillo (ARI)

2) Buster Posey (SF)

3) Matt Wieters (BAL)

4) Yasmani Grandal (LAD)

5) Evan Gattis (HOU)

For the second straight night we’re focused on the BAL-ARI game for value. Welington Castillo (ARI) should hit cleanup against a really bad LHP in Wade Miley (4.25 xFIP, 14.8 hard minus soft hit rate). He’s very affordable on FanDuel. He’s still usable on DraftKings, but Matt Wieters (BAL), who is a secondary play on both sites, offers a lot of cap relief on that particular site. Robbie Ray has allowed a ridiculous amount of hard contact to RHBs for the third straight season.

First Base Rankings

1) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

2) Joey Votto (CIN)

3) David Ortiz (BOS)

4) Chris Davis (BAL)

5) Albert Pujols (LAA)

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) is by far the top rated first basemen and trails only Mike Trout in our overall hitter rankings. He’s one of the best hitters against LHP in all of baseball, possesses and awesome power/speed combination, and faces Wade Miley, who has allowed a .346 wOBA and .170 ISO to RHBs since 2015. On FanDuel he’s practically a free square given the ease you can fit him in alongside top tier pitching. On DraftKings it’s a binary decision. If not pairing Kershaw/Bumgarner, he’s likely your man. If you do pair the two stud pitchers, you need to look elsewhere, Albert Pujols (LAA) (plus park shift in Houston against the underwhelming Brad Peacock) and Lucas Duda (NYM) (has returned from the DL and possesses cheap power upside against a RHP projected to allow lots of power). Some guys with multiple position eligibility that pop as pure punts include Yulieski Gurriel (HOU) and Josh Bell (PIT).

Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve (HOU)

2) Dee Gordon (MIA)

3) Robinson Cano (SEA)

4) Brian Dozier (MIN)

5) Jean Segura (ARI)

The absurd pricing of Dee Gordon (MIA) on FanDuel continues as he’s once again sub-$3k against a bad Atlanta RHP who struggles with LHBs (Aaron Blair). With their inability to control the running game, he’s in a great spot. Over on DraftKings, Gordon is usable but priced appropriately. There’s not a single value at the position on that site standing head and shoulders above the rest. It’s sort of a position to fill out last where you can go up to Jose Altuve (HOU) if not spending on pitching or go down to a Kelly Johnson (NYM) or Jonathan Schoop (BAL) type if needing to punt.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Carlos Correa (HOU)

3) Jonathan Villar (MIL)

4) Corey Seager (LAD)

5) Jose Peraza (CIN)

On DraftKings, Manny Machado (BAL) possesses shortstop eligibility and wipes the floor with the other options from both a raw total and value perspective, making him the ideal choice. If cost ends up being an issue, it’s easy to pivot downwards to Francisco Lindor (CLE) who is a bit underpriced relative to his skill set. On FanDuel the dynamic is different. Without Machado, Carlos Correa (HOU) is a reasonable spend at home against Jhoulys Chacin (4.30 xFIP, 14.6 hard minus soft hit rate, bad bullpen behind him), while Chris Owings (ARI) grants you really cheap exposure to a Diamondbacks offense in a great spot.

Third Base Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Miguel Sano (MIN)

3) Justin Turner (LAD)

4) Jonathan Villar (MIL)

5) Maikel Franco (PHI)

On FanDuel it’s easier to pay up, allowing you to either use Machado or save a little more money on Justin Turner (LAD), who provides reverse splits (.400 wOBA and .245 ISO against RHP since 2015) against a reverse splits pitcher in Chad Bettis (.352 wOBA and .200 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015). The price tag is so nice on Machado on DraftKings that we’d really like to use him either here or at shortstop, but there are several cap relief candidates here: Maikel Franco (PHI) (priced to face Syndergaard but instead gets a LHP who has struggled as a reliever), Yunel Escobar (LAA) (road leadoff hitter in a plus park against a bad pitcher), and Yulieski Gurriel (HOU) (hitting second for an offense with an IRT of 4.9, tied for highest on the slate).

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Bryce Harper (WAS)

3) Ryan Braun (MIL)

4) Mark Trumbo (BAL)

5) Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)

6) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

7) Miguel Sano (MIN)

8) George Springer (HOU)

9) Adam Jones (BAL)

10) Rajai Davis (CLE)

11) Jay Bruce (NYM)

12) Gregory Polanco (PIT)

13) Mookie Betts (BOS)

14) Curtis Granderson (NYM)

15) Kole Calhoun (LAA)

Mike Trout (LAA) pops as our top ranked hitter overall as Brad Peacock has struggled in 254 MLB innings, including a .359 wOBA and .198 ISO allowed to RHBs in 2014 when he logged his most MLB innings in a single season (54, just 13.1 since). Bryce Harper (WAS) is the next ranked outfielder before a big gap exists. The pricing on him is solid, but with news that he’s not 100 percent and Ivan Nova pitching better than expected with the trade to Pittsburgh, he’s not a priority for us. The price on FanDuel is pretty compelling, but there’s lots of upside with options below Harper’s cost on both sites. Mark Trumbo (BAL) (.228 ISO and 6.1 HR rate against LHP since 2015) and Miguel Sano (MIN) (Ariel Miranda has been extremely fly ball oriented while allowing a 23.4 hard minus soft hit rate) offer plenty of power upside. A pure punt power option on FanDuel is Adam Duvall (CIN) (31 HRs, home versus Taylor Jungmann, who has been a disaster this season everywhere above AA). In terms of affordable speed upside, Rajai Davis (CLE) pops on FanDuel (great hitter versus LHP) and Roman Quinn (PHI) on DraftKings. Some site specific options who are simply underpriced relative to their context include Kole Calhoun (LAA) on DraftKings and Yasmany Tomas (ARI) on FanDuel. Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) is our favorite tournament play.

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Baltimore Orioles

Tier Two

2) Seattle Mariners

3) Minnesota Twins

4) Houston Astros

5) New York Mets

6) Miami Marlins

7) Arizona Diamondbacks

8) Los Angeles Angels

We think the power of the Orioles helps to separate them a bit, and we love picking on the Diamondbacks in general. On DraftKings, a mini stack of Orioles makes sense in cash. Sticking in that same game, pricing on FanDuel makes a mini stack of Diamondbacks a smart play. Outside of that we’re not forcing any stacks in cash games.

With no teams currently possessing a run total of 5 or greater, we’re left with a large second tier of stacks that are all clustered tightly together. The Mariners may go underowned as we haven’t hit on any individual hitters, yet they face Tyler Duffey, who has now remarkably allowed 4 or more runs in 17 of 24 starts. In that same game, the Twins pop as a contrarian stack. They are fourth in ISO against LHP, and as mentioned above, Miranda has a skill set that will accentuate the power of his opponents.

MLB Daily Analysis

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