Welcome to September 24 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 24 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
September 24 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
Reminder: There is no podcast to accompany today’s cliff notes.
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
The Sunday main slate includes the 8 games beginning with NYY at TOR at 1:07 PM ET.
Max Scherzer (WAS) tops the SP rankings with the lowest IRTA on the slate (3.1), the largest favorite (-164), and the second highest strikeout projection (7.7). Scherzer has faced 27, 30, and 27 batters his last three starts, so we’re not too concerned about a short outing despite not much to play for. On a shorter slate with some bats likely to rest on Sunday, it makes sense to pay up to Scherzer in cash games.
Jacob deGrom (NYM) and Chris Archer (TB) top our second tier of SPs. Our projection on Archer is on the optimistic side, given some shorter recent outings that have been shaky post forearm injury. Still, he was strong last time out, and the tough schedule is at least partially responsible for the recent results. Overall on the year Archer has a 29.6 K%, which makes him underpriced on DK on a slate where you can afford to get him in as your second SP alongside Scherzer.
The best tournament pivot off of Scherzer in tournaments is Jose Quintana (CHC), who has significant strikeout upside against a Brewers team that has struck out 25.6% of the time in this split this season. Quintana offers savings off of Scherzer and doesn’t carry the recent risk results that Archer does.
There’s not much in the way of plus mid-tier values on this slate, meaning you’re likely going expensive or cheap. We prefer expensive over cheap in cash games. However, if you’re uncomfortable with Archer’s recent performances on DK, you may not have the funds to get all the way up to Quintana.
The three cheap pitchers we’re looking at are Jameson Taillon (PIT), Ian Kennedy (KC), and Luiz Gohara (ATL). All three have strikeout projections in the mid-5s. Taillon is the safest of the bunch, both in terms of skill set and environment (PNC Park). Kennedy receives a large negative park shift, but has an easy matchup against the White Sox. Gohara has pitched much better than his ERA indicates, and posted a K% approaching 30 in the Minors.
Marcus Stroman (TOR) could emerge as the lone good mid-tier play if the Yankees lineup ends up watered down the day after clinching a postseason berth (this is likely why there is currently no line on this game).
It’s difficult to prep too much at the C position on Sunday’s, which are often a day of rest across baseball, particularly at this position. Willson Contreras (CHC) has the best mix of raw total projection and value if he’s in the lineup. Contreras is the rare catcher in a great lineup spot (4th). He’ll get a nice park upgrade playing in Milwaukee, and brings in a positive 15-day Hard% delta into his matchup against Chase Anderson, who has historically struggled with same handed batters.
Salvador Perez (KC) is the best alternative to Contreras for a lot of the same reasoning: good power baseline, plus park shift, good lineup spot.
Gary Sanchez‘s (NYY) power keeps him tournament viable at a scarce position, but we’d rather take a fade stance given his price, the opportunity cost (may prevent you from paying up at SP), and a below average R/R matchup with Marcus Stroman.
Make sure to monitor lineup alerts tomorrow for potential cap relief plays.
Top plays at the position are Anthony Rizzo (CHC) and Freddie Freeman (ATL) facing power prone RHPs in plus hitting environments.
However, the cash game target here is Lucas Duda (TB), and his .247 ISO against RHP since 2015. Duda brings that power bat into Camden Yards, a large positive park shift, to face Dylan Bundy, who has allowed 1.41 HR/9 to LHBs over his MLB career. Teammate Logan Morrison (TB) is also underpriced. We prefer Duda, but a case could be made for Morrison on FD where he’s actually $100 cheaper than Duda.
A value pivot off of the Rays options is Mitch Moreland (BOS). He’s in hitter friendly Cincinnati, facing Jackson Stephens. Stephens has had HR issues in a very small MLB sample (2.40 HR/9, 15 IP). Both ZiPS and Steamer expect him to struggle with the long ball.
Rookie Yoan Moncada (CHW) has quickly elevated to top 2B status on this slate. Moncada’s 15-day Hard% of 34.2 is impressive, and the White Sox have a higher than usual IRT at 4.7 against the power prone Ian Kennedy (5.65 FIP, 1.94 HR/9). He’s an excellent cash game option on DK, but his elevated FD price tag makes him tough to fit alongside an expensive SP.
On FD you can hover around the $3k range, give or take $300-400. Jonathan Schoop (BAL) is an excellent source of cheap power, even if the R/R matchup with Archer is one you’d normally avoid. Dustin Pedroia (BOS) is easy access to a second hitter on the road for a team with one of the highest IRTs (5.2). Scooter Gennett (CIN) costs the most but has some of Schoop’s power upside with some of Pedroia’s safety (good matchup/park/lineup spot).
Ben Zobrist (CHC) is a cheaper cash game alternative to Moncada on DK.
On both sites, Brad Miller (TB) is a punt play with power upside that you can use in GPPs.
Kris Bryant (CHC) has massive upside in Milwaukee against Chase Anderson who has allowed a .351 wOBA and .201 ISO to RHBs since 2015. The cost is better for tournaments than cash games.
Mike Moustakas (KC) is a phenomenal cash game play on FD, providing you with power upside (37 HRs, .254 ISO) in a large park shiftin Chicago with the platoon edge.
On DK you can save nearly $1,000 off Moustakas by dropping down to Hernan Perez (MIL), who has surprising pop in this split since 2015: .177 ISO. Throw in a projected leadoff spot and this is a surprisingly strong cap relief option in cash games. At $600 more, Evan Longoria (TB) is receiving a large park shift and facing Dylan Bundy (4.78 xFIP).
Josh Donaldson (TOR) is a phenomenal tournament play. He gets lost in the shuffle a bit, lagging behind Bryant as a top play but not offering the cap relief or per dollar value of the above mentioned cash game targets. Still his mid-tier price tag does not reflect the upside he holds versus a southpaw at home.
Even in a difficult matchup against Jacob deGrom, we’d really like to get up to Trea Turner (WAS) on FD where the $3,500 tag is way too cheap for his skill set. If you can’t quite get there in cash games or are playing on DK, it’s not a bad position to full on punt.
Dansby Swanson (ATL) is in a horrible lineup spot (8th at home), but is near minimum salary on DK, which really opens up a lot. Atlanta has a stellar 5.1 IRT against Nick Pivetta and the Phillies.
The punt options are more difficult to find on FD (another reason to try to get to Turner). Freddy Galvis (PHI) hitting second on the road in Atlanta is the best sub-$3k option. Ideally, though someone else emerges when lineups are released.
Mookie Betts/Andrew Benintendi (BOS) are two of the more event-oriented Boston players and top our raw projected outfielders with a high team total in Cincinnati. Opposing pitcher Jackson Stephens had a 4.92 AAA ERA.
Aaron Judge (NYY) and Ryan Braun (MIL) round out our top five overall OFs. Braun has the most cash game appeal given a much lower price tag. While he’ll face a quality pitcher in Jose Quintana, Braun’s studly splits (.402 wOBA, .250 ISO) keep him in play in all formats.
Corey Dickerson (TB), like teammate Lucas Duda, provides cheap Rays power. He’s our top OF value on both sites. Teammate Kevin Kiermaier (TB) is a safer raw total play out of the leadoff spot, but doesn’t carry the same price discount as Dickerson.
Another mid-tier OFer with upside that can be used in cash games on this slate is Matt Kemp (ATL). Opposing pitcher Nick Pivetta has a 5.03 FIP and 1.84 HR/9 in 24 starts this season.
Tournament plays include Brandon Moss (KC) (power upside) and the Brewers OFers (event oriented in a good park and good hitters versus LHP). Nick Delmonico (CHW) is tournament viable with the platoon edge at homer against a homer prone RHP, and the cheap $2,500 tag brings him into the cash game conversation on FD as a way to help you fit in Scherzer and Turner at other positions.
1) Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are a great tournament stack as expensive starting pitching could keep their ownership reduced despite the strong spot – road team with a big park shift. Their deep and powerful offense will face Chase Anderson. He’s pitched well this season, but the 4.50 xFIP is more indicative of his skills than the 2.74 ERA.
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Tampa Bay Rays
As they have been for most of this series, the Rays are a phenomenal value stack to pair alongside expensive starting pitching. They get a huge park shift in their favor, have cheap power LHBs, and face Dylan Bundy, whose name recognition does not match the performances. Bundy has allowed 5 or more ERs in two of his last three starts.
4) Kansas City Royals
5) Cincinnati Reds
6) Atlanta Braves
Nick Pivetta can miss bats but his wildness and homer prone nature in front of a bad bullpen make him a good pitcher to stack against in tournaments.