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September 25 MLB DFS: Dylan Is A Bundy of Joy
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September 25 MLB DFS  Show Outline: 

jose1600:45 Starting Pitchers
06:05 Catchers
07:16 First Base
8:31 Second Base
9:36 Shortstops
11:13 Third Base
12:19 Outfield
15:04 Cash Game Roster Construction and Stacks

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September 25 MLB DFS PRO TIP

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Dylan Bundy (BAL)

Tier Two

2) Julio Teheran (ATL)

3) Taijuan Walker (SEA)

4) Tyler Glasnow (PIT)

Tier Three

5) Brandon Finnegan (CIN)

6) Michael Pineda (NYY)

7) Carlos Rodon (CHW

8) Joe Musgrove (HOU)

9) Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS)

Jose Fernandez was supposed to start this afternoon, but his start has been pushed to Monday. As a result, expect ownership to flood to Dylan Bundy (BAL). Bundy is the Vegas darling today, as he’s the highest favorite (-208) with an IRTA of 3.9 runs. Bundy gets a home start against a Diamondbacks offense that that’s ranked 26th in wRC and are striking out 22.5 percent of the time vs. RHP. His price tag is very cheap on both sites, and it doesn’t accurately reflect his skills (8.51 Ks per 9 this season) and his strong context. Bundy is our anchor in cash games at the starting pitcher position.

Finding a second starter to complement Bundy on DraftKings is a bit tedious. We’d love to use Michael Pineda (NYY) due to his awesome strike out skills (27.4 K rate), but the matchup against the Blue Jays is very poor and the hitting environment (Rogers Centre) won’t help him. Pineda is a great tournament option, but the risk you have to take on the run prevention side (IRTA of 4.9 runs) is too big for cash game purposes. Without anyone calling our attention in the mid-tier, we’re dropping down to the likes of Joe Musgrove (HOU) (IRTA is at 3.9 runs – his biggest weakness is allowing hard hit contact but this Angels offense struggles to hit for power) and perhaps even Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) (his run prevention has been much better on the road and he gets to pitch in Tropicana Field in a matchup against a Rays offense that’s striking out a league high 25.2 percent of the time vs. LHP; IRTA is 3.7 runs). Tyler Glasnow (PIT) is exceptionally cheap on FanDuel ($4,400), but he’s a good fade in cash games since he tends to be wild (14.2 percent walk rate at AAA this season) and doesn’t pitch deep into games. We’re intrigued by the strikeouts (30.4 percent K rate at AAA this season), but we’re only willing to use him in tournaments. Brandon Finnegan (CIN) saw his fastball velocity come down a little bit during his last start, and that could be a result of the workload (career high 167 IP – has never pitched above 50 IP) catching up to him. He’s another pitcher that we like in tournaments due to his strikeout skills and a matchup against the Brewers, but it’s difficult to trust him in cash games after his last start was cut short.

Catcher Rankings

1) Gary Sanchez (NYY)

2) Victor Martinez (DET) – where eligible

3) Brian McCann (NYY) – if hitting cleanup

4) Salvador Perez (KC)

5) Russell Martin (TOR)

Without any expensive SPs in play this afternoon, it’s very easy to pay up for hitters. Unfortunately, the catcher position doesn’t have an expensive hitter we’d play in cash games. As a result, we’re looking to use a mid-tier option like Brian McCann (NYY) (only if he hit cleanup) or a cheapo like Salvador Perez (KC) (will have the platoon edge against a home run prone pitcher and he’s just $2,800 on DraftKings). If you’re paying up for a catcher in tournaments, Gary Sanchez (NYY) (19 home runs in 45 games) is our preferred target in that format.

First Base Rankings

1) Chris Davis (BAL)

2) Joey Votto (CIN)

3) David Ortiz (BOS)

4) Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ)

5) Chris Carter (MIL)

6) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

Chris Davis (BAL) is our second overall hitter in our model this afternoon, and he’s not priced accordingly around the industry ($4,100 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel). Davis will hit cleanup for an Orioles offense that has the highest implied team total in this slate (5.6 runs – 0.5 runs higher than our next ranked offense), and he has a perfect matchup for his power stroke (Braden Shipley has allowed a massive .284 ISO to LHBs this season, and he doesn’t miss bats – 14.4 K rate vs. LHBs). Shipley’s inability to miss bats is important for Davis, since that’s his biggest weakness as a hitter (32.7 percent K rate this season and he’s historically struggled with making contact). Davis is our primary target at first base, but don’t be afraid to use any of our ranked options at the position in tournaments (they all carry power upside).

Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve (HOU)

2) Dee Gordon (MIA)

3) Ian Kinsler (DET)

4) Devon Travis (TOR)

5) Derek Dietrich (MIA) – if top 5

Dee Gordon (MIA) remains a free square on FanDuel, where he’s still just $2,700. Julio Teheran is a good pitcher, but he struggles vs. LHBs (.359 wOBA allowed to LHBs since 2015) and we love picking on Braves catchers since they’re terrible at controlling the running game. Gordon is $4,000 on DraftKings, which is still a discounted price relative to his speed upside in this particular context. Jose Altuve (HOU) remains underpriced on FanDuel and while he’s a great value in a vacuum, it’s difficult to pass up Gordon’s value there. Gordon’s teammate, Derek Dietrich, could emerge as a potential pivot on DraftKings if he can get a top five lineup spot.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL) – where eligible

2) Carlos Correa (HOU)

3) Jonathan Villar (MIL) – where eligible

4) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

5) Jose Reyes/Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM)

Manny Machado (BAL) is so good even when he doesn’t have the platoon edge (.381 wOBA, .244 ISO vs. RHP 2015), and Braden Shipley represents a favorable matchup (.424 wOBA, .211 ISO allowed to RHBs). Machado is ranked inside our top five hitters today and you can fit him with ease in cash games on both sites. The alternatives to Machado are Francisco Lindor (CLE) (on DraftKings) and Carlos Correa (HOU) (on FanDuel, where Machado doesn’t have SS eligibility). Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) is our favorite tournament target at the position (+0.7 change in our well-hit tool over the last two weeks).

Third Base Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

3) Jonathan Villar (MIL) – where eligible

4) Jose Reyes (NYM) – where eligible

5) Maikel Franco (PHI)

Manny Machado (BAL) has third base eligibility on both sites and he’s the top ranked third baseman in this slate. He’s our favorite cash game value at the position, but there are viable alternatives on both sites. Josh Donaldson (TOR) is priced accurately in a matchup vs. Michael Pineda, but when Pineda is struggling he tends to allow a healthy amount of power (.183 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015). Donaldson is in play in cash games on DraftKings where the price is a bit friendlier and Maikel Franco (PHI) is the cheaper alternative to Machado on FanDuel. You might not need Franco’s salary relief in cash games but he’s been on fire lately (+0.8 change in our well-hit tool over the last two weeks).

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Ryan Braun (MIL)

3) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

4) Bryce Harper (WSH)

5) Rajai Davis (CLE)

6) Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)

7) Jose Bautista (TOR)

8) Hyun Soo Kim (BAL)

9) George Springer (HOU)

10) Adam Jones (BAL)

11) Mookie Betts (BOS)

12) Franklin Gutierrez (SEA)

Before Jose Fernandez was scratched, our thoughts at the position were to go cheap with at least two outfield spots. However, Fernandez’s start got pushed to Monday and the pitchers we’re using in cash games are cheap, so there’s plenty of salary relief to grab a couple of pricey outfielders. Mike Trout (LAA) (top ranked hitter in our model), Ryan Braun (MIL) (.420 wOBA, .255 ISO vs. LHP since 2015) and Nelson Cruz (SEA) (+0.5 change in our well-hit tool over the last two weeks and it doesn’t include the 493 ft. home run he hit last night) all rank inside our top 10 and represent our favorite expensive targets at the position. If you need to go the mid-tier route or cheap with one OF spot, there are plenty of options to choose from. Rajai Davis (CLE) (speed), Jose Bautista (TOR) (power), George Springer (HOU) (power and speed) and Hyun Soo Kim (BAL) (leadoff hitter for the Orioles, the team with the highest implied team total in this slate) are in play, but if we had to narrow it down to the two we like most, Davis and Kim would be our preference. In tournaments, you can continue to rely on Mark Trumbo (BAL) (+0.4 change in our well-hit tool over the last two weeks; .220 ISO vs. RHP since 2015) and Justin Upton (DET) (nine home runs this month).

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Baltimore Orioles

Tier Two

2) Houston Astros

3) Toronto Blue Jays

4) Seatttle Mariners

5) New York Mets

6) Detroit Tigers

With cheap pitching on deck and a high upside offense (Baltimore) facing a weak pitcher, grabbing exposure to at least a couple of Orioles in cash games makes the most sense. There are five teams in our second tier and while they’re not as high in our priority list, you can pick apart cash game value wherever you see it with any of those teams. Our second tier also consists of our favorite tournament stack (New York Met, facing Jake Thompson – 5.62 ERA/5.43 FIP and most of the Mets are hot according to our well-hit tool) and offenses with plenty of power (like the Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers) that might not have individual hitters with great ratings in our model due to the way they’re priced. We’re taking advantage of situations like these in tournaments.

Contrarian Stack

Milwaukee Brewers – (Brandon Finnegan has turned a corner during the second half of the season, but his last start was cut short and his fastball velocity waned a bit; we often pick against the Brewers when they face RHP, but they’re a better offense vs. LHP since their lineup is full of RHBs and behind Finnegan is the worst bullpen in baseball).