September 27 MLB DFS: Make David a PriOrtiz

September 27 MLB DFS  Show Outline: 

 

September 27 MLB DFS PRO TIP

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Max Scherzer (WAS)

Tier Two

2) Chris Sale (CHW)

Tier Three

3) Noah Syndergaard (NYM)

4) Jose de Leon (LAD)

5) David Price (BOS)

6) Justin Verlander (DET)

7) Julio Teheran (ATL)

Tier Four

8) Adam Wainwright (STL)

9) John Lackey (CHC)

10) Ian Kennedy (KC)

11) Felix Hernandez (SEA)

Tuesday’s 15 game slate includes a very deep set of starting pitching options that presents a variety of ways to attack pitching. Max Scherzer (WAS) is clearly ahead of the pack with a favorable matchup against the strikeout prone Diamondbacks (22.5 percent against RHP) that ranks 26^th in wRC+ against RHP. Scherzer’s expensive but the strikeout floor is tremendous as we’re projecting a nearly 36 percent K Rate. Scherzer has struck out at least seven batters in 24 of his 32 starts (75 percent). Scherzer’s price tag is hefty, but viable, on both sites. The challenge is the depth of starting pitching at the position makes utilizing him a legitimate decision. On FanDuel, the pricing gap between Scherzer and the next tiers of elite starters is narrow, making Scherzer a preferred target. On DraftKings, Noah Syndergaard (NYM) is $3,500 cheaper which makes the price count a legitimate decision. Syndergaard faces a Marlins’ lineup that has strengthened over the last few weeks adding Derek Dietrich and Giancarlo Stanton back into the mix which increases their potency but also their expected K Rate. The Marlins implied run total opened at just 3.3 runs and Syndergaard has dominated them in two previous starts this season (14 IP, 13 H, 3 BB, 3 ER, and 21 K). On DraftKings, if you’re not paying up for Scherzer, Syndergaard is your primary target.

Our preferred pairing with an elite starter is Jose de Leon (LAD) who faces a Padres’ offense that ranks 30^th in wRC+ against RHP and has the league’s second highest K Rate against RHP (25 percent). Jose de Leon was dominant in AAA this season (32.5 K Rate, 2.61 ERA) and he struck out nine Padres in his major league debut in six innings. He’s struggled with the long ball at the big league level but the batted ball peripherals are pretty good (4.5 hard hit minus soft hit rate, 42.5 percent fly ball rate) and he wasn’t homer prone in the minors. Vegas opened with a 3.6 implied run total for the Padres and de Leon is a solid -155 favorite. Of the cheap options, de Leon has the best combination of strikeout projection (28-30 percent) and run prevention. Adam Wainwright (STL) is similarly cheap and a viable cash game target as the Cardinals fight for their playoff lives and their bullpen was extended the night before. Wainwright’s projected K Rate leaves a lot to desire (22 percent) but he’s the largest favorite on the slate (-230) with just a 3.4 implied run total against. The upside with Wainwright isn’t significant but if concerned about de Leon’s acclimation to the big league level, Wainwright is a viable cash game alternative. With most of the third tier starters a bit overpriced, they represent fine tournament targets as ownership gets spread out among all the deep options.

If looking for contrarian GPP targets, Ricky Nolasco‘s (LAA) recent success coupled with a AAA level Athletics’ offense has yielded an unexpected 3.9 implied runs against. With pitching so deep on this slate, he’ll come with almost no ownership. Similarly, A.J. Griffin (TEX) is a risky starter with fly ball and thus homer-prone tendencies but he’s better against RHBs (.291 wOBA, 21.7 K Rate, and 32.3 hard hit rate allowed – still elevated) and faces a Brewers’ offense that strikes out a ton against RHP (nearly 26 percent of the time). Cheap exposure to the Brewers, even in an awful park environment, makes sense in tournaments; particularly on DraftKings ($5,700). Those are extreme contrarian targets. More traditional contrarian targets include Julio Teheran (ATL), John Lackey (CHC), and Matt Moore (SF) who have flashed big strikeout upside at different points in the season and are getting watered down September offenses as opponents.

Catcher Rankings

1) Buster Posey (SF)

2) Victor Martinez (DET) – where eligible

3) Gary Sanchez (NYY)

4) Yasmani Grandal (LAD)

5) Stephen Vogt (OAK)

6) Russell Martin (TOR)

The catcher position is deep with viable options, but no one has a particularly compelling price tag. Buster Posey (SF) is our top offensive catcher taking on German Marquez who has struggled at the big league level and doesn’t project to go deep into the game opening up tons of bullpen innings for the Giants to feast on. Posey’s accessible on both sites, but not a must. Russell Martin (TOR) is cheap on both sites ($2,900 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings) and provides access to the middle of the Blue Jays lineup with an implied run total at 4.7 runs. Martin hits fifth, has been hitting the ball hard (4.4 well hit rating), and Gausman has reverse splits (.358 wOBA, .206 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015). Gausman has been much better of late (.314 wOBA, .075 ISO allowed over last 100 RHBs faced) but was knocked around last time and pushed back due to a rib issue. Yasmani Grandal (LAD) and Yadier Molina (STL) are viable price play alternatives if they earn strong lineup spots.

First Base Rankings

1) David Ortiz (BOS)

2) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

3) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

4) Miguel Cabrera (DET)

5) Chris Davis (BAL)

6) Freddie Freeman (ATL)

7) Chris Carter (MIL)

8) Eric Hosmer (KC)

9) Brandon Belt (SF)

10) Victor Martinez (DET) – where eligible

David Ortiz (BOS) is our top ranked overall hitter on this slate as the Red Sox get a big park shift for LH power playing in Yankee Stadium. Luis Cessa has allowed a ton of power to LHBs (.346 wOBA, .275 ISO as a big leaguer) and Ortiz has posted an absurd .426 wOBA and .334 ISO against RHP since 2015. First base is typically a deep position, but we’d love to get exposure to Ortiz if you can. If you can’t afford Ortiz, Chris Davis (BAL) and Matt Adams (STL) look like the best alternatives as both are priced down on each site. Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) is a site-specific value on DraftKings where he’s priced down ($4,100) for the matchup with Kevin Gausman.

Second Base Rankings

1) Matt Carpenter (STL)

2) Jose Altuve (HOU)

3) Robinson Cano (SEA)

4) Ian Kinsler (DET)

5) Rougned Odor (TEX)

6) Trea Turner (WAS) – where eligible

7) Ben Zobrist (CHC)

8) Devon Travis (TOR)

Matt Carpenter (STL) got the night off on Monday but remains our top ranked second base option. Robert Stephenson has struggled mightily at the big league level (.383 wOBA, .273 ISO allowed since 2015) and the Cardinals have the second highest implied run total at 5.1 runs. Carpenter has struggled of late (-0.7 well hit rating) but a depressed price tag on DraftKings ($4,000) makes him a fine target despite the recent struggles. On FanDuel, the price tag isn’t discounted which makes Robinson Cano (SEA) a fine alternative at $3,200 with the platoon advantage against a fly ball prone starter.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Corey Seager (LAD)

2) Carlos Correa (HOU)

3) Jonathan Villar (MIL) – where eligible

4) Brandon Crawford (SF)

5) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

6) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

7) Manny Machado (BAL)

Corey Seager (LAD) leads off our shortstop rankings but is priced appropriately around the industry, which makes him a difficult spend in cash games. This is a position we’d like to get some salary relief as very few of the top options pop as elite values, especially on FanDuel. Our model views German Marquez as very underprepared for the big league level and Vegas has handed the Giants a healthy 4.7 implied run total. This makes Brandon Crawford (SF) a viable cash game target but the price tag on FanDuel is very fair ($3,100). Eduardo Escobar (MIN) would represent a welcome punt play if he landed in a good lineup spot and Addison Russell (CHC) could also serve as a punt despite a significantly difficult park shift for RHBs. On DraftKings, pricing is a bit softer at shortstop which makes Brandon Crawford, Jonathan Villar (MIL), Jorge Polanco (MIN), Manny Machado (BAL), and Francisco Lindor (CLE) all viable cash game options. Villar’s upside is particularly intriguing against former teammate Jonathan Lucroy who struggles to hold base-runners and the power upside AJ Griffin’s splits against LHBs opens up.

Third Base Rankings

1) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

2) Matt Carpenter (STL) – where eligible

3) Justin Turner (LAD)

4) Kris Bryant (CHC)

5) Jonathan Villar (MIL)

Josh Donaldson (TOR) is our top ranked third base option as his power upside plays well against Kevin Gausman‘s historical reverse splits. Gausman’s recent performance may give pause to paying full price which makes the position a bit more challenging to attack. The position lacks clear values or salary relief options which leaves you with mid-tier options that are slight values like Danny Valencia (OAK) on FanDuel at $3,000 or perhaps taking a chance on Travis Shaw‘s (BOS) power upside in Yankee Stadium at $2,900. On DraftKings, you do have the soft price tag on Matt Carpenter (STL) that carries eligibility at third base on DraftKings. Additionally, Danny Valencia ($3,400) and Josh Donaldson ($4,700) are priced down slightly.

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Jose Bautista (TOR)

3) Mookie Betts (BOS)

4) Ryan Braun (MIL)

5) Carlos Beltran (TEX)

6) Dexter Fowler (CHC)

7) Ian Desmond (TEX)

8) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

9) George Springer (HOU)

10) Carlos Gomez (HOU)

11) Stephen Piscotty (STL)

12) Trea Turner (WAS)

13) Kris Bryant (CHC) – where eligible

14) Jarrod Dyson (KC)

15) J.D. Martinez (DET)

Another night with Mike Trout (LAA) at the top of our rankings. He’s priced appropriately on DraftKings ($5,400) and slightly discounted on FanDuel ($4,100), so if you’re getting exposure FanDuel makes a bit more sense. Once again, the Rangers outfield is severely underpriced on DraftKings as the Rangers have the highest implied total on the slate (5.7 runs) and Carlos Gomez (TEX), Ian Desmond (TEX), and Carlos Beltran (TEX) are all priced below $4,000. Jarrod Dyson (KC) and Stephen Piscotty (STL) are strong targets on both sites with relatively depressed price points. Dyson faces Jose Berrios who has allowed LHBs to compile a .393 wOBA and Dyson gets to run against Kurt Suzuki who has allowed 51 SBs this season and has been -3 or worse in rSB the last four seasons.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Texas Rangers

2) St. Louis Cardinals

3) Boston Red Sox

4) San Francisco Giants

Tier Two

5) Toronto Blue Jays

6) Los Angeles Dodgers

The Rangers once again are likely chalky on DraftKings where the price tags are down. The same can be said for the Blue Jays as most appear priced down for a matchup with Gausman but on FanDuel both are stacks are far more expensive. There is enough offense on the slate as seven or eight teams have implied run totals above 4.7 runs. As a result, we’re not super concerned with ownership, with the exception of the Rangers on DraftKings. The Red Sox LHBs which mix in some bottom of the order options is one of our favorite directions in tournaments to take advantage of Cessa’s issues with the long ball and potentially skirt some of the heavier ownership on the RHBs at the top of the lineup.

Contrarian Targets:

San Francisco Giants – Our model really likes the Giants offense in a matchup with German Marquez where he figures to leave plenty of bullpen innings. The Giants are pretty affordable on both sites which allows you to stack them with top tier starting pitching.