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September 27 MLB DFS: Rich get Richards with Turner
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Welcome to September 27 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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September 27 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
10:16 Catcher
12:46 First Base
15:15 Second Base
17:04 Third Base
19:58 Shortstop
22:08 Outfield
28:22 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

September 27 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

The top tier of starting pitchers is led by Luis Severino (NYY) and Rich Hill (LAD). Both starters get strikeout friendly matchups against the Rays (24.8 K Rate against RHP) and Padres (25.1 K Rate against LHP) and come with implied totals against that are nearly a run lower than everyone else on the slate. The price tags are a bit softer on FanDuel relative to DraftKings where a concern on how deep each starter will work is more important at elevated price tags. Severino has blown past his previous career high in innings by more than 20 and with possible work ahead in the postseason, the Yankees could choose to limit the workload. They haven’t showed their hand with regards to Severino but the Yankees do have a history of managing workloads. Hill has a lower innings baseline to begin with, so he’s not as reliant on working deep into games as Severino. While Dave Roberts isn’t likely to let Hill go beyond six innings, Kershaw went eight innings and Darvish went seven in two the last three games. While our projections slightly prefer Severino, any risk on the workload would make Hill a slightly better selection at similar price points (noticeably cheaper on DraftKings). Neither is a “must” on this slate, but the strong matchups make them fine targets.

The mid-tier is pretty deep on this slate. Garrett Richards (LAA) represents our favored target with a soft matchup against the White Sox typically RH heavy lineup. Richards has been great in his late season return, posting a 2.91 xFIP, 2.19 FIP, and sparkling 1.50 ERA in five starts. He got the pitch count up to 85 last time out and worked six shutout innings against the Astros. Richards historically has combined above average K Rates with strong GB Rates and in his return he’s also managed the walk rate. The Angels are still holding out a little hope for the second wild card, so we’re expecting Richards to have almost no restrictions. Richards is a core piece on DraftKings where you need two starters, but he’s also viable on FanDuel in all formats.

After Richards, there are a few similarly priced targets with a bit more inconsistency in their profiles this season. Rick Porcello (BOS) and John Lackey (CHC) both get the benefit of facing RH heavy lineups. They each carry slightly above average K Rates and relatively modest implied totals against (low fours) that are somewhat helped by strong bullpens behind them. We view these targets as better GPP plays but if you wanted to load up on offense, they represent your best pairing on DraftKings with Richards.

Just above those two in projection is Tanner Roark (WAS) who is more expensive but getting a good matchup against the Phillies and then Chad Kuhl (PIT) and Jason Hammel (KC) who get weak RH heavy opponents in good pitching environments. You could also extend the list to Sean Newcomb (ATL) who is a little more expensive but gets a soft matchup with the Mets.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY) represents the top projected scorer at an ugly catcher position in this slate. Sanchez projects two FD points ahead of our next projected scorer at the position, Salvador Perez (KC). It’s a healthy gap in projection and Sanchez has a decent price tag on FD, but in general we’re looking to save some funds at the position in cash games. We prefer these pricey targets in tournaments.

Stephen Vogt (MIL) looks like the clear route in cash games on FD. He’s just $2,100 in a home matchup vs. Homer Bailey. Vogt’s price tag is appropriate on DK, but even there you might end up considering him if no punts emerge. We do have Martin Maldonado (LAA) available as a punt on DK. He’s buried in the Angels lineup, but it’s the cheapest way of getting out of the position on that site and getting access to an Angels team that figures to have another healthy IRT in Chicago.

First Base

Albert Pujols (LAA) is once again a perfect fit in this slate given the cheap price tags. The Angels are finishing their road trip in Chicago tonight, and they have a juicy matchup for the third straight night. Reynaldo Lopez has really struggled to miss bats (12.6% K rate through seven starts) and he’s not generating GBs (29.9% GB rate). We saw Eric Thames (MIL) hit leadoff last night, and he would emerge as the top point per dollar target at the position if he hit there again tonight. The matchup vs. Homer Bailey is a strong one and the price tags are reachable.

Luis Valbuena (LAA) is $2,700 on DK with the platoon edge while Justin Smoak (TOR) is $2,900 on FD. Smoak has generated a 37.5% L15 HHR. Those are direct alternatives that are viable in cash games.

Joey Votto (CIN) (top value on FD but not an easy fit in cash games), Freddie Freeman (ATL)   and Anthony Rizzo (CHC) are pricey targets to consider in tournaments. On the cheap site, Josh Bell (PIT) (punt price tag on FD) and Lucas Duda (TB) (really cheap on DK given the tough matchup vs. Severino) are intriguing enough to consider as one offs in tournaments.

Second Base

Daniel Murphy (WSH) carries the top projection at second base tonight. It’s a positive park shift for Murphy and the Nationals offense as they’re on the road in Citizens Bank Park. Mark Leiter Jr. has been able to miss bats, but he’s been exceptionally home run prone (1.77 HR/9). Murphy’s price tag remains very accessible on FD, but you’ll have to keep an eye on his availability as he’s missed the last few games with hamstring soreness.

Neil Walker (MIL) represents the most direct pivot to Murphy at the position. It’s a play that comes with upside (.211 ISO baseline vs. RHP) and in a strong context to boot. The price tag on Walker feels a touch light on DK. Chris Taylor (LAD) will have the platoon edge in a matchup vs. Clayton Richard, and he remains a good value on DK where the price tags have been light on him for a while.

If you simply needed to save more funds at the position, Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) is $2,900 on DK and comes with a good lineup spot and Eric Sogard (MIL) has a punt price tag on FD and when he’s in the lineup he usually leads off.

Third Base

Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Josh Donaldson (TOR) are the top projected scorers at third base, but they’re priced wildly different on DK where Donaldson is somehow just $3,900 in Fenway Park. We’re not afraid to pick on Porcello, who’s had his fair share of home run issues this season (1.64 HR/9), and Donaldson has been on a quite a heater of late. He homered twice vs. Chris Sale last night and that’s not accounted for in his already massive 43.2% L15 HHR. He’s a cash game lock on DK while Freeman should only be considered in tournaments.

The price tag on Donaldson is pretty good on FD as well, but we have to give the cash game nod to Mike Moustakas (KC) on that site. Moustakas is $2,800 on that site in a matchup vs. Jordan Zimmermann, who’s been awful all season. After a breakout season in 2015, Moustakas has followed it up with a 46.2% FB rate that’s led to a .255 ISO (38 HRs). Travis Shaw (MIL) is $3,400 on FD and will have the platoon edge at home. He’s a fine alternative to Moustakas in all formats.

Luis Valbuena (LAA) is another cheap route to consider on DK ($2,700), but with Donaldson so cheap we’re leaning heavily towards locking the latter in cash games and using Valbuena in tournaments. You also have other routes with decent upside like Justin Turner (LAD) and Anthony Rendon (WSH) in good matchups, but it’s not necessary to pay those funds in cash games. We prefer them in tournaments as well.

Shortstop

Trea Turner (WSH) projects well ahead of every shortstop in this slate. He’s projected to outscore or next projected scorer at the position, Francisco Lindor (CLE), by nearly two FD points. Turner gets another strong chance at those coveted five PAs on the road, and he gives plenty of speed upside (career high 42 SBs this season in 424 PAs). We also have a healthy .178 ISO baseline for him vs. RHP. Turner is very viable in cash games given how bad the position.

The other targets you’ll consider in cash games will come with cheap price tags. Andrelton Simmons (LAA) is a decent enough value on FD ($2,700). He’ll be hitting sixth on the road, which isn’t terrible given that we’re expecting the Angels to carry an IRT right around 5.5 runs. Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) isn’t a sexy play by any means, but he’s $2,900 on DK and he gets good lineup spots in the Mets’ AAA lineup. Perhaps Kike Hernandez (LAD) gets a good lineup spot vs. a LHP with the Dodgers having clinched the division already. He’s just $2,700 on DK and $2,300 on FD. We have a .343 wOBA and .223 ISO baselines for Kike in this split (vs. LHP).

Outfield

Mike Trout (LAA) is the top projected hitter in this slate regardless of position, and we’re pursuing him aggressively in cash games on both sites. Trout has generated a .417 wOBA and .281 ISO vs. RHP since 2015, and this park shift is massive for him. Play him. The ownership could get out of control in tournaments, and that’s where Bryce Harper (WSH) and possibly Justin Upton (LAA) (37.5% L15 HHR) come into play. There’s even a chance you could pair Trout with one of these two in cash games depending on your decisions at SP.

You can surround Trout with his teammate Kole Calhoun (LAA), who remains too cheap around the industry. Calhoun is a road leadoff hitter with a very strong chance at five PAs. There’s also Jose Bautista (TOR) (good price tags on both sites), Andrew McCutchen (PIT) ($3,700 on DK is too cheap even without the platoon edge), Billy Hamilton (CIN) ($3,800 on DK- road leadoff hitter with plenty of speed upside) and Melky Cabrera (KC) (good price tag on FD). If you needed a punt OF3 to finish your lineups, Juan Lagares (NYM) (as long as he gets a good lineup spot) and Brandon Moss (KC) (strong matchup vs. a home run prone pitcher that doesn’t miss bats) fit the bill on DK.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Washington Nationals

2) Los Angeles Angels

The Angels and Nationals lead the way by a relatively wide margin on this slate. They are facing two of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball and getting park upgrades for their power while also getting a guaranteed ninth inning. These are the two offenses we’re targeting most in cash games and if ownership condenses on the high-end SP, there still should be reasonable ownership opportunities in GPPs – particularly with the more expensive Nationals.

Tier Two

3) Milwaukee Brewers

4) Boston Red Sox

5) Cincinnati Reds

 

6) Cleveland Indians

7) New York Yankees

The Brewers ranking is a bit susceptible to Eric Thames health as he left late in last night’s game and projects as their best hitter against RHP. Homer Bailey and the Reds bullpen has been a favorable spot to attack but we’ll want Thames in there to do it. Boston, Cleveland, and the Yankees are all heavy favorites with strong implied run totals but likely just eight innings limits their ranking. In addition, they’re facing Estrada, Andriese, and Mejia who project closer to league average or slightly below starters than some of the other gas cans on the slate. Ultimately, their popularity and price tags, make them less compelling for us. The team that is most contrarian in this group is the Reds who get a slightly depleted Brewers pen after their primary lefty Josh Hader went 2 ⅓ innings last night.