Welcome to September 28 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS | HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | SORTABLE STATS | PITCHER TRENDS | LINEUPS | LEADERS
September 28 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:09 Starting Pitcher
09:44 First Base
11:30 Second Base
13:50 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
September 28 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
As the season winds down, we’re handed an ugly Thursday pitching slate. Sonny Gray (NYY) leads the way when looking at raw total projection, as he’ll draw the strikeout heavy Rays and an opposing implied run total of 3.6 runs. While the matchup is not as friendly as it could be (it’s being played at Yankee Stadium), the Rays still bring plenty to dream on as they’ve posted the third highest strikeout rate against RHP. Though not typically known for his strikeout prowess, Gray has posted more than a strikeout per inning over the last month and leads the way in strikeout projection in our model (6.2). Due to the overwhelming uncertainty and safety with the remaining options on the slate, we believe Gray to be a foundational piece of cash games.
While he represents an easy fit on FanDuel, on DraftKings the conversation gets a bit trickier where Gray is $11,700. Kyle Hendricks (CHC) is next in line in projection, and while he’ll have a better overall environment to pitch in, his opponent – the Cardinals – are not as strikeout friendly. Unfortunately, his salary doesn’t particularly open him up as a compelling drop down for cash games, so he’s moved to the tournament conversation.
Danny Duffy (KC) returned from the disabled list ten days ago and hurled five and six innings in his first two starts back. The Tigers are a shell of the team they were to begin the season, having lost right-handed power bats Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez, making the matchup even more favorable for Duffy. Their implied run total of 3.9 runs is the second lowest on the slate, and though Duffy doesn’t figure to generate much upside as far as working deep into the game, he does come with some strikeout potential. At $9,300 on DraftKings, he’s one of the safer pairings to Sonny Gray for cash games.
After those three options, we’re dealing with slim pickings. Lance Lynn (STL) is expected to go for the Cardinals and the Cubs could put out any number of lineups to help increase his stock. He hasn’t faced more than 20 batters in any of his last three starts, but he gets a good home park and a potentially weakened Cubs lineup as they inch closer to clinching the NL Central. At $6,400 on DraftKings, he is a secondary cash game option, with the potential to be boosted by lineups. Jacob Faria (TB) gets a similar story, albeit in a better park for offense. He has the second highest strikeout projection (5.9) against a Yankees team that has already clinched a playoff spot. However, he’s worked just two and three innings in his last few games, and is filling in for Alex Cobb – meaning he’s likely not set to work deep as the Rays keep his young arm in check.
If pulling from the top arms, Robinson Chirinos (TEX) will come in handy at only $2,800 on DraftKings. He found himself in the 7th spot of the order in the Rangers last game against a southpaw and he’s been wonderful in the split, albeit in a small sample size. In just under 200 plate appearances since 2015, he’s posted a .398 wOBA and .235 ISO against LHP. You can stay cheap in a couple of different ways as well if Chirinos doesn’t find his way into the lineup. James McCann (DET) and John Hicks (DET) draw a more difficult matchup with Danny Duffy, but they both have shown great prowess against LHP in small samples and are around the bare minimum on both sites. Martin Maldonado (LAA) gets the same treatment, and despite a bad lineup spot, he’ll face the weakest opposing starter on the slate in Dylan Covey.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) though is the top dog at the position, and the top per dollar play on FanDuel. Sanchez gets an excellent park environment and a matchup with young right-hander Jacob Faria who has been fly ball prone, and lucky to keep the ball in the park. There isn’t much reason to pay up for Sanchez in cash games, but he’s an excellent tournament option given his power upside.
It’s not 2007, but Albert Pujols (LAA) is still the top per dollar play on both sites. That is the luxury afforded to you when Dylan Covey is scheduled to start on the mound opposite you. Covey has a 5.65 xFIP, has allowed more than 2.50 home runs per nine, only strikes out 12.6% of hitters and walks nearly five a game. Not much needs to be said for the Angels in the rest of this document.
After Pujols, Josh Bell (PIT) and Anthony Rizzo (CHC) represent two different tiers of first base options. Bell will draw the stronger matchup with Edwin Jackson, getting to hit from the left side of the plate where he has been very strong since his career started. He’s posted a .348 wOBA and a .195 ISO against RHP in that time and offers a similar price tag to Pujols. Rizzo on the other hand will cost you, but rightfully so. While Lance Lynn could blossom into a potential option based on the strength of the Cubs lineup, he’s also a potential target given his struggles with LHB. He’s allowed a .350 wOBA and .195 ISO to LHB since 2015 and the Cubs will have the luxury of getting very left-handed if need be. Jose Abreu (CHW) will get to face Bud Norris in his home park, and he’s posted a strong positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days. Matt Olson (OAK) can’t do much else but homer, and gets a huge park upgrade to play in Texas against Miguel Gonzalez. He’s only $4,500 on DraftKings and an excellent tournament option.
No surprise, but Jose Altuve (HOU) flutters to the top of the ranks at second base, where he’ll draw the platoon edge on Eduardo Rodriguez. Unfortunately, his price tag will also keep him out of the cash game conversation – which leaves us looking towards Ian Kinsler (DET) and Jed Lowrie (OAK) on DraftKings, and potentially as far down as Dustin Pedroia (BOS) on FanDuel.
Kinsler and Lowrie both will come at sub-$4,000 on DraftKings and will draw top three lineup spots. The matchup on all fronts is worse for Kinsler, but he will be the road leadoff hitter and is $200 cheaper than Lowrie. Our preference is with Jed though, who is $3,900 on DraftKings. The Athletics have an implied run total of 5.4 runs getting a big park shift in their favor, and Lowrie will get to hit from the left side against Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a classic example of an escape artist, having pitched to a 5.70 xFIP with lots of contact and most of it aerial. This time though, we don’t like his chances at escaping.
Unfortunately, on FanDuel, none of these options are in a reasonable price range. Daniel Murphy (WSH) is only $3,400 – but that’s not an exceptional price to pay. Nevertheless, he’s been very impressive versus RHP since 2015, posting a .379 wOBA and a .224 ISO in that time. If you can’t make it up that far, we’d prefer to drop down as far as you can. It might only be possible with Dustin Pedroia (BOS) at $2,900. Pedroia is by no means an astounding option, but the way FanDuel has started to price the middle infield might make him a necessity.
Adrian Beltre (TEX) is the guy at the hot corner on Thursday, but reports are that he could just shut it down this season with the Rangers out of contention. He was out of the lineup last night, but previously had played and hit cleanup in the team’s previous six games. If he is in there, he’ll draw the platoon edge on Sean Manaea in the slate’s best environment for offense.
If we can’t get Beltre, both Alex Bregman (HOU) and Luis Valbuena (LAA) come into view. Bregman should slide into the second spot of the order as he’ll get the platoon edge on left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. Moving to Fenway park is a great boost for RHB, and Bregman has posted a .377 wOBA and .208 ISO against LHP in his small time in the Majors. Valbuena has been surprisingly excellent with the platoon edge as well, and he’ll draw it on Dylan Covey. You know how bad Covey is, but Valbuena has posted a .240 ISO against RHP since 2015. He’s the cheaper of the two, and a strong play on a slate where this is a rather weak position.
Matt Chapman (OAK) deserves some consideration as he’s posted excellent batted ball data and is a cheap way to get exposure to the Athletics on this slate. He’s only $2,400 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings, but won’t bring you a good lineup spot. Nick Castellanos (DET) rates decently as well, but we’d prefer to take one of the top three options in cash games.
There isn’t much to get excited about at any position on this slate, and that tune stays the same at shortstop. Carlos Correa (HOU) remains the top per dollar play on FanDuel where he sits in the mid-$3,000s. While most other options are in the price range as well, he differentiates himself from the pack on skill alone, making him a top bargain per his strong baselines. Oh, and the platoon edge and park shift don’t hurt.
Elvis Andrus (TEX) has had a fantastic season, and he’ll get a chance to better it against Sean Manaea. While you don’t think of him as an extreme event player, he’s had a huge jump in power (likely unsustainable) at a .176 ISO this season to go along with 25 SBs. He’s $3,400 on FanDuel, where we’d likely side with Correa, but more importantly he’s only $4,100 on DraftKings. Marcus Semien (OAK) will play SS on the other side of that game in Texas, and he’s a great option against the 5.70 xFIP of Miguel Gonzalez. Unfortunately though, he might be better for Oakland stacks as he’s $4,500 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel. Trea Turner (WSH) remains an excellent option in all formats, but one with a lofty price tag. Alex Bregman (HOU) has dual positional eligibility on DraftKings, making him a potential option at only $4,300.
Mike Trout (LAA) faces Dylan Covey.
After Trout, there are a handful of other mid-tier that are intriguing options against a pair of the worst starters on the slate, Covey and Miguel Gonzalez.
Justin Upton (LAA), Kole Calhoun (LAA), Khris Davis (OAK), and Matt Joyce (OAK) rank in the top ten in per dollar value on both sites.
Upton and Calhoun both face Covey, and in the backburner for Upton is excellent recent batted ball data. At $4,000 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings, it’s likely that you won’t be able to pair him with Trout in cash games, but for Angels stacks they make for an excellent duo, particularly on DraftKings where you can use the second SP spot to save some capital. Of course, Calhoun can help you do that though at $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel.
Davis and Joyce are truly middle tier, each at $4,000 on DraftKings. On FanDuel though, it’s only Joyce that is within reason for cash games at $2,900. In Gonzalez’ last five starts, his lowest posted xFIP was 5.26. Have fun! Stack away!
George Springer (HOU) remains a top per dollar value on both sites given his immense upside and a price tag that hasn’t exactly caught up. We’d prefer to use him in tournaments though. Andrew McCutchen (PIT) and Starling Marte (PIT) remain “value” darlings as their price has remained quite stagnant for a while, mainly thanks to a lack of production. Each has posted a small positive delta in Hard%, and gets Edwin Jackson and his competing misery (5.53 xFIP, 2.57 HR/9).
At the very top, there are some options as well. Aaron Judge (NYY) has posted excellent batted ball data and is still in his home park. Bryce Harper (WSH) is back! But he’ll potentially come with an innings limit like last night. Either is a way to find a potential tournament one-off to go with the likely popular stacks of Oakland or Los Angeles.
1. Oakland Athletics
2. Washington Nationals
The Athletics are our favorite stack on the night, taking a massive park shift and moving to Texas to face one of the worst pitchers on the entire slate. While they have been a punching bag for strikeouts, they’ve also posted the highest ISO against RHP this season.
- Los Angeles Angels
- Texas Rangers
- Houston Astros
- Chicago White Sox
- Kansas City Royals
We didn’t touch much on either the White Sox or the Royals, but both have implied run totals over five, facing Bud Norris and Daniel Norris respectively. Unfortunately, both teams are also the home teams and generally have little event upside from top to bottom – pushing them into the bottom third of stacks, and more fitting the contrarian stack mold.