Daily Fantasy Rundown – September 29 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Major weather problems expected in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Ohio valley and Great Lakes region, including the cities of NYY, PHL, BLT, PIT, CLE and CIN. ATL even has some risk as well.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Top Play: Kyle Schwarber (CHC) (Huge power upside given his power indicators (40.7 hard hit rate, .92 GB/FB ratio, 13.0 BB rate), large positive park shift and a matchup against a wild, fly ball oriented RHP in Josh Smith; Target in all formats on sites where he’s C eligible)
Next in line:
Brian McCann (NYY) – McCann is always in consideration in home matchups against RHP (.219 ISO in that split last season, .292 this season), and that’s especially the case today against Rick Porcello (BOS). Porcello not only has poor three year splits (.342 wOBA, 1.11 HR/9 allowed to LHBs), but he’s allowed a lot more power to the opposition as a result of him trading off an increase in Ks for less ground balls and more hard hit contact. It of course always helps to pick on a Boston starting pitcher since the bullpen behind him leaves a lot to be desired (fifth highest ERA in MLB, most HR/9). He’s a high end option, but we’re comfortable enough with the value plays at the position that we still view McCann as a tournament only on sites where he’s much more expensive than the value play catchers (FanDuel for example).
Welington Castillo (ARI) – If you’re someone who avoids cold hitters, you may want to scratch Castillo’s name off your list as his anemic 17.4 hard hit rate is in direct contrast to hot summer months (52.3/38.5/48.4). Luckily for us, the price has fallen to take into account the drop off in production. With that in mind, we’re a bit more focused on Castillo’s positive contextual factors today than with how he’s swinging the bat. He still has a top five lineup spot in a great hitter’s park. Today he faces Christian Bergman (COL) who has a 5.24 career ERA, despite spending most of his time as a reliever. Bergman likely won’t pitch deep (max outing this year is 3.2 IP), and the Rockies bullpen behind him has the highest ERA in baseball.