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September 29 MLB DFS: Rarified Arenado
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Welcome to September 29 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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September 29 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
06:41 Catcher
09:21 First Base
12:00 Second Base
13:51 Third Base
16:32 Shortstop
18:23 Outfield
21:38 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

September 29 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Pitching always gets tricky towards the end of the season as we deal with more unknown in innings limitations or motivation levels. In these instances, we’re less likely to pay top dollar for elite starters and with a Coors Field slate it’s easier to justify overlooking Stephen Strasburg (WAS) as a cash game target. Strasburg is the most skilled starter on this slate but faces a traditionally contact-heavy Pirates lineup and he’s fully priced ($12,000 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel). The same goes for Zack Greinke (ARI) who gets a negative league shift and faces a contact-heavy Royals’ lineup. Greinke’s priced a bit more reasonably on FanDuel, but not worth the $11,300 price tag on DraftKings.

This leaves us with Trevor Bauer (CLE) as perhaps the strongest starter matchup at a price tag that is usable. Cleveland has let starters go in recent days, allowing Carlos Carrasco to throw 112 pitches and go 8 ⅓ innings. Bauer is still below last year’s innings, leaving no concern of a limit, and he faces a White Sox lineup that is loaded with strikeout potential and projects as one of the weakest in the league. Add in cooler temperatures in Cleveland and the wind blowing in and Bauer looks like the safest target relative to price tag.

Dan Straily (MIA) is the next best value on both sites. Straily has gotten back to his strikeout ways the last two starts (17 in 11 IP) and he faces a Braves’ lineup getting a park downgrade. Straily’s been effective against ATL this year (2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 23 K in 22 innings) and most importantly he’s reasonably priced ($7,400 on FanDuel, $7,100 on DraftKings). Using Straily as a source of salary relief will give some exposure to Coors Field (12 total) and hold onto most of the strikeout upside from higher priced starters.

On FanDuel, Tyler Skaggs (LAA) is super cheap ($5,800). He hasn’t had the big strikeout numbers that Straily has of late and the matchup is more difficult with the Mariners but a good pitching environment and the nature of late season pitching makes him viable. A softer Mariners’ lineup (think no Nelson Cruz) and Skaggs could end up as the best source of salary relief. On DraftKings, Wade Miley (BAL) and John Gant (STL) are the super cheap options in matchups that help generate strikeouts as the Rays and Brewers remain two of the most strikeout prone targets. If the Nationals throw out a watered down lineup, Gerrit Cole (PIT) is reasonably priced at $7,800.

On DraftKings, our preferred pairing is two out of Bauer-Straily-Miley-Cole and then loading up on bats. On FanDuel, Bauer or Straily/Skaggs would represent the targets for those playing cash games.

In tournaments, there is more room to take chances on cheaper starting pitchers with the overall ceiling on starters pulled down due to lower expected innings.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal (LAD) carries the top projection at the catcher position. Grandal doesn’t get the benefit of strong lineup spots anymore, but hitting seventh on the road in Coors Field is fine. Grandal has generated a .344 wOBA and .231 ISO vs. RHP since 2015, and he’s been great of late (37% L15 HHR). Grandal is a strong cash game option, particularly on DK.

Buster Posey (SF) is the other target at the catcher position that deserves cash game consideration given the light price tag on FD ($2,800). Jonathan Lucroy (COL) is a reasonable target on DK where he’s $3,400. In tournaments, Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) is interesting given the elevated L15 HHR (36.8%) and a strong context (hitting cleanup on the road vs. Ben Lively).

 First Base

Cody Bellinger (LAD) is the top projected scorer at first base and third overall regardless of position. Bellinger is in Coors Field facing Chad Bettis, who’s had issues with the long ball (1.83 HR/9 – GB rate is down to  44.7% this season) through eight starts this season. We only have a couple of aces at the starting pitcher position tonight, and they’re priced fully in unappealing contexts. You should have enough resources to make a run for Bellinger in cash games.

On DK you’ll have an opportunity to roster Bellinger in the OF and perhaps give Mark Reynolds (COL) the nod at first base. Reynolds is the top value at the position on that site with a light price tag ($3,900), especially when you consider the appealing context (in Coors with the platoon edge). Joey Gallo (TEX) is just $2,800 on FD where he rates as our second best value at the position despite a poor projected lineup spot (seventh). Gallo is at home facing a pitcher that projects very poorly, and most importantly for him, doesn’t project to miss bats.

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI), Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Rhys Hoskins (PHI) are pricey but should be considered in tournaments.

 Second Base

Chris Taylor (LAD) is the top projected scorer at the position on DK where he carries 2B eligibility. Taylor’s price tag on DK doesn’t make much sense given the context. He’s the road leadoff hitter for a Dodgers offense that’s in Coors Field to wrap up their season and Taylor is somehow just $3,900. As long as he’s in the lineup (and the Dodgers are expecting him to be back tonight), he’s a cash game lock on DK.

On FD, you’re saving money with one of Rougned Odor (TEX) or Jonathan Schoop (BAL). Odor has the matchup you want for his particular profile as Raul Alcantara projects very poorly, particularly in terms of missing bats (sub 16% K rate at AAA). Odor doesn’t get the benefit of a good lineup spot anymore but the strong matchup at home is tough to ignore at $2,300. Schoop gets a negative park shift but a plus matchup for his power upside as Jake Odorizzi has reverse splits (.213 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015).

Brian Dozier (MIN) and DJ LeMahieu (COL) are the expensive options at the position that we’re considering in tournaments. Their contexts are excellent – Dozier gets the platoon edge and a bad Tigers pen and LeMahieu is in Coors Field.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL) represents the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. Arenado gets Hyun-Jin Ryu (.176 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015) in the best hitting environment in all of baseball. Arenado is expensive but he’s worth pursuing across all formats on both sites.

Justin Turner (LAD) has a light price tag on DK ($4,400) and as a result rates as our best value at the position. Turner doesn’t get the benefit of the platoon edge, but that doesn’t affect his projection. He’s been an excellent hitter vs. RHP (.382 wOBA, .211 ISO since 2015) and Chad Bettis is a reverse splits pitcher (.366 wOBA, .207 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2016).

Manny Machado (BAL) ($3,200 on FD puts him in the cash game conversation), Jake Lamb (ARI) and Joey Gallo (TEX) (3B eligibility on DK) are worthy upside targets to consider in tournaments.

Shortstop

Corey Seager (LAD) and Trevor Story (COL) are in Coors Field tonight and represent the top projected scorers at the shortstop position. They’re priced appropriately on FD, but Seager has a lighter price tag on DK ($4,600) where he’s a strong cash game target.

On FD, it’s probably best to settle for Elvis Andrus (TEX) and save the resources to get to Bellinger or Arenado. Andrus is just $3,400 on that site and gives you exposure to the warmest environment in this slate while holding event upside. It’s not as necessary to save money at the position on DK, but if you’re paying up for SPs and needed a cheap target Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) is just $2,900. He gets the benefit of good lineup spots in the Mets AAA lineup and he’ll face Ben Lively on the road.

Outfield

Mike Trout (LAA) is the second overall projected scorer in this slate with appropriate price tags at home. He’s not a focal point in cash games, but he’s the best hitter in baseball and Marco Gonzales isn’t a threatening matchup. We like Trout in tournaments. Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) is facing Luiz Gohara, a pitcher that misses bats (25.8% K rate through four starts, really big K rates in the minors), but he’s a LHP. That means Stanton gets the platoon edge, and he’s been a monster in this split (.431 wOBA, .392 ISO vs. LHP since 2015). Stanton is a strong tournament target in this slate and on FD he has a light price tag ($4,200) that you can pursue in cash games.

The Dodgers are dominating our OF values. Curtis Granderson, Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger (LAD) get a massive park shift going into Coors Field and the latter two have OF eligibility on DK. Granderson usually hits sixth, which is fine in this particular context. He’s just $3,100 on FD. Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara (TEX) are top five OF values on FD where their price tags feel a touch light given their context. They’re in Arlington facing a SP that projects very poorly. The Rangers have the third highest IRT in this slate (5.4). On the other side of this game, you have Khris Davis (OAK) facing Martin Perez (LHP that struggles to miss bats) with a very light price tag on DK ($3,800). Jay Bruce (CLE) and Nick Williams (PHI) are other sub $4,000 targets on DK that project reasonably well in good matchups.

Stacks

 Tier One

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Colorado Rockies

The Dodgers and Rockies are in a game with a total that is multiple runs higher than any other game on the slate. Both teams face their preferred handedness in terms of the strength of their lineup and both offenses are accessible on DraftKings. They’ll rightfully represent the chalk. On FanDuel, the pricing is much more appropriate and stacks as a whole should carry low ownership even if a few individual pieces are owned.

Tier Two

3. Texas Rangers

The Rangers are a strong pivot off of Coors Field. It’s cool all around the country so mid-70s actually presents a favorable hitting environment for the Rangers. Alcantara doesn’t work deep into games and struggles with command. The Rangers are more formidable against RHP as well. Texas is also exceptionally cheap on FD.

Tier Three

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

5. Houston Astros

6. Cleveland Indians

The Astros have been red hot but their RH heavy lineup doesn’t profile as strongly against Doug Fister. Price tags are accessible on both sites but the matchup isn’t ideal. We prefer the Diamondbacks power against Ian Kennedy‘s fly ball tendencies from this tier.

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