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September 3 MLB DFS: Magic Mike
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Welcome to September 3 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 3 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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September 3 MLB DFS Position Timestamps

01:04 Starting Pitcher
09:49 Catcher
11:05 First Base
14:01 Second Base
16:01 Third Base
18:47 Shortstop
21:01 Outfield
25:54 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

September 3 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Wow. Wow wow wow. Wow. Pitching is ugggggly on this slate. Our top projected starting pitchers are Mike Montgomery (CHC), Mike Fiers (HOU), and Ervin Santana (MIN). With Santana overpriced on both sites, this becomes a battle of Mike’s. Both Montgomery (-260) and Fiers (-240) are heavy favorites against bad opposing offenses, leading to the only sub-4 IRTA on the slate. While neither is a safe value, especially where priced more appropriately on DK, you’ll want to anchor your staffs with one of them because pitching is simply that bad. Montgomery faces an Atlanta team that’s actually a slightly below average DFS matchup. However, Freddie Freeman is struggling (wrist may be an issue), and the team is 28th in FanGraphs’ Hard% over the last two weeks. Meanwhile Montgomery has allowed just 1 ER over 13 IP in two starts since joining the rotation.

Fiers’ recent performance has been shakier. He just allowed 8 ERs to Texas, and his homer problems have resurfaced over the second half of the season. Still, you’re going to get a touch more K upside from Fiers, whose 5.5 K projection is sadly the second highest on the slate (Godley in COL is the only SP with a higher K projection). He’ll face a pretty horrific Mets lineup that features 5 of 9 batters with a wOBA split sub-.300 and none over .321 (Nimmo).

While we dismissed Santana initially, it’s worth noting he’s beaten our expectations all year long, and if there was ever a slate to overpay for him, this might be it. It’s not what we suggest, but it’s reasonable.

On DK there are a few cheap starting pitcher options: Matt Andriese (TB), Andrew Heaney (TEX), and Trevor Williams (PIT). Andriese seems to have the best combination of run prevention and K upside against a bad White Sox team. The issue is that he hasn’t pitched deep since working back from the DL, facing 17 batters in his last rehab start (8-23) and pitching three innings in relief since being activated (8-28). We’ll try to pin down details on a pitch count expectation for alerts.

Andrew Heaney faces a Texas team that he dominated last time out with 10 Ks. It might not be the same story this time around as the game is in Texas, and Heaney has now allowed Hard%’s of 50%, 42.1%, and 50% in his three starts. Williams lacks Heaney’s K upside but is in a much tamer offensive environment in Pittsburgh, leading to an IRTA 1.2 runs lower than Heaney’s.

If you are extremely risk tolerant, some pitchers to look at in GPPs on DK simply because the position is so dreadful are Chris Tillman (BAL) (almost completely due to cost, absurdly horrific recent peripherals that we will pick on) and Zack Godley (ARI) (6.2 IRTA in Coors but 6.4 K projection is highest on the slate by nearly a full strikeout).

Those options are DK specific. Lucas Giolito (CHW) has some minor appeal as a punt on FanDuel in tournaments.

Catcher

Unsurprisingly, the catcher position can be narrowed down to a handful of cash game targets today. Chris Iannetta (ARI) is available on DK with a sub $4,000 price tag. As long as he hits sixth (or better) in Coors Field, he’ll be the top catcher on that site. Stephen Vogt (MIL) and Salvador Perez (KC) are industry wide values. Vogt will have the platoon edge against Edwin Jackson and he usually hits fifth or sixth. We’ll take that for cheap price tags on both sites. Perez has been really cold of late, but the price tags account for that. Perez has 21 HRs and 21 doubles this season.

We like J.T. Realmuto (MIA) in tournaments vs. the underwhelming Jake Thompson. Realmuto has a combined 22 HRs/SBs this season (23 last season).

First Base

It’s Eric Thames (MIL) day once again. He’s really cheap around the industry, and Edwin Jackson has the biggest discrepancy in ERA/xFIP (3.33/5.43) out of all the SPs in this slate.

On DK, you have the ability of getting exposure to Thames and Paul Goldschmidt (ARI), who’s our top projected scorer regardless of position. Goldy is in Coors Field, and not having the platoon edge isn’t a deterrent to his value. We have a .390 wOBA, .247 ISO baseline in this split for Goldy.

The only other alternative we’d consider in cash games is Lucas Duda (TB) with cheap price tags on both sites. Duda will have the platoon edge in Guaranteed Rate Field. It’s a big park shift for Duda and the Rays, especially when you consider that temps will be in the low 80s today.

Justin Smoak (TOR) (price really stands out on FD, where he can be stretched to cash games), Mark Reynolds (COL), Mike Napoli (TEX) and Albert Pujols (LAA) are in play in tournaments. The latter three are only available on DK.

Second Base

Jose Altuve (HOU) is the top projected scorer at second base. He won’t have the platoon edge, but Chris Flexen flat out sucks. We love Altuve and the Astros in tournaments.

You’re saving money here with Neil Walker (MIL), Ben Zobrist (CHC) and Jose Ramirez (CLE). The latter has a nice mid-tier price tag on FD that’s very reachable in cash games. Walker has been hitting in good lineup spots for the Brewers (usually second, hit cleanup last night) and he’s free around the industry. If Zobrist is in the leadoff spot, he’s a cheap way of grabbing exposure to the Cubs though he’s been pretty bad this season.

Third Base

Kris Bryant (CHC) is the top projected scorer at third base as he’ll have the platoon edge against Max Fried, a young SP that had a 5.92 ERA at AA this season. Nolan Arenado (COL) is right behind Bryant in projection and he’s in Coors facing a good SP. We prefer Bryant in cash games – his appropriate price tag is still reachable in a slate with no aces.

The best point per dollar target at the position is an underpriced Evan Longoria (TB). Longoria is $3,400 on DK and $2,900 on FD. He won’t have the platoon edge, but he’s facing a young SP backed up by an awful SP in a great hitting environment. Longoria has a solid .193 ISO vs. RHP since 2015.

Jake Lamb (ARI), Josh Donaldson (TOR) and Travis Shaw (MIL) (cash viable on DK where he’s too cheap) belong in the tournament conversation as they all carry power upside in great hitting environments.

Shortstop

The shortstop position is weak in this slate. We do get Trea Turner (WSH) in a good hitting environment facing a weak SP, but he’s priced efficiently everywhere. Elvis Andrus (TEX) is a potential target on DK where he’s available, but he’s $4,700

We’d rather save some money at the position. Alex Bregman (HOU) isn’t exactly cheap but $4,100 on DK is passable in cash games. Bregman has event upside at a weak position. He’s running more this season (15 SBs). On FD, teammate Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) is $2,700. He’s the only sub $3,000 value at the position that’s worth pursuing in cash games. We’ll see where Javier Baez (CHC) lands in the Cubs lineup, but with the platoon edge he can be considered on DK where he’s $3,700. Baez has a .205 ISO vs. LHP since 2015.

Outfield

Mike Trout (LAA) is in Texas and he’ll have the platoon edge against Martin Perez. Trout is available on DK, where he’s a phenomenal big spend. As a matter of fact, we’d prioritize him in a slate where you won’t feel great about the SP selections. Charlie Blackmon (COL) (only available on DK), Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (no Trout or Coors OFs on FD, so Stanton is the default big spend in the OF there), A.J. Pollock (ARI) and J.D. Martinez (ARI) are other big spends that are worth their price tags in all formats.

Eric Thames (OF eligibility on DK), Ryan Braun (MIL) and David Peralta (ARI) represent our best values and the routes you’re taking after the big spends. Braun is just $3,000 on FD. He’s been cold and he won’t have the platoon edge, but this is also the best matchup he’s seen of late. Starling Marte (PIT) (dumb cheap on DK though he’s been cold of late), Kevin Kiermaier (TB) and the Toronto OFs (Steve Pearce and Jose Bautista) are fine secondary values as well

Justin Upton (LAA) doesn’t even crack our top five values in the OF on DK since the position is incredibly loaded. With the platoon edge in Texas, Upton should be in your radar in tournaments.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Arizona Diamondbacks

Tier Two

2) Colorado Rockies

The Coors game is only available on DK. It makes sense to grab some of the expensive pieces with massive overall projections in cash games. In tournaments, the team totals here are so high (6.2 each) and pitching is so bad, that we don’t mind full punting pitching to get some full Coors tournament stacks going. It doesn’t hurt that both teams are swinging hot bats.

Tier Three

3) Milwaukee Brewers

4) Tampa Bay Rays

5) Chicago Cubs

While the surface stats don’t show it (3.33 ERA), Edwin Jackson has been every bit as bad as we’ve expected him to be, posting a 5.46 FIP and 5.43 xFIP. Milwaukee is fifth in HRs and second in SBs.

The Rays get a large positive park shift and face Lucas Giolito, who despite some good surface results, has struggled peripherally and has bad ZiPS/Steamer projections.

The Cubs face a horrific SP in Atlanta in Max Fried (lots of jokes here). The guy has a 5.92 ERA at AA. This could amount to a bullpen game, and a deep Cubs offense can do plenty of work.

Tier Four

6) Los Angeles Angels

7) Texas Rangers

8) Washington Nationals

9) Houston Astros

10) Cleveland Indians

The Angels-Rangers game could arguably in tier three, and it will certainly be more popular than our rankings indicate. This is the other game only available on DK. Martin Perez‘s pesky GB rate allows him to work in and out of trouble at times and limit power.

Toronto Blue Jays: Chris Tillman has been a disaster all season long, but particularly the last couple of starts where he’s walked 10 batters and allowed as many HRs (4) as strikeouts (4).