Daily Fantasy Rundown – September 30 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Wednesday edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Though many of the same cities that had ppds and a delay last night in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes and Ohio valley regions will see some ligh rain or drizzle today, there should be no heavy rain in any location. Thus, they should try to play these games.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) – The Mets once again are one of our favorite teams to target. Opposing pitcher Alec Asher (PHI) has a 7.52 ERA through five starts. That’s what happens when you 1-allow a lot of balls in play (12.6 K percentage) 2-allow a high percentage of fly balls (0.85 GB/FB ratio) and 3-allow hard hit contact (32.6 hard hit rate). Those trio of factors has led Asher to allow 2.05 HR/9. While that may appear to be small sample size noise, keep in mind he allowed 1.88 HR/9 over 16 AAA starts. That’s a massive number for a pitcher to allow in the Minor Leagues. Clearly there is a ton of upside for the Mets offense (third highest team total of the night at 5). d’Arnaud (.357 wOBA, .222 ISO) should hit fifth or sixth for a Mets team that also benefits from a positive park shift.
Miguel Montero (CHC) – With affordable pitching tonight, you’ll likely be able to pay up for d’Arnaud on your cash game rosters. However, if you can’t or he isn’t in the lineup, Montero once again is a viable value if hitting top six in the order. Montero has decent skills against RHP and will benefit tremendously from playing in Great American Ballpark (most favorable hitter’s park in play tonight). Opposing pitcher Anthon DeSclafani (CIN) has allowed a .344 wOBA and 1.21 HR/9 to LHBs since 2013. Teammate Kyle Schwarber (CHC) has been slumping but still possesses massive power upside. We’d lean towards Schwarber over d’Arnaud as the top catcher on sites where Schwarber maintains that eligibility.