Welcome to September 30 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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September 30 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
02:20 Starting Pitcher
10:43 First Base
13:54 Second Base
16:18 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
September 30 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Saturday is a tough slate to evaluate without lineups as a few teams could full out rest, particularly Cleveland (if they clinch home field FRI night) and Colorado (if they clinch the Wild Card spot).
There’s also a weird dynamic where we may not get the stud SPs (Corey Kluber (CLE), Max Scherzer (WAS), and Clayton Kershaw (LAD)) pitching as deep as usual, something we’ve accounted for in our projections. But at the same time, some rest lineups would provide the necessary cheap values to pay up for a stud SP without too much trouble.
Our lean is to make that spend, even if you’re not getting a usual performance out of the elite SPs. Even with a 6 IP expectation, Kluber and Scherzer rank as the clear-cut top overall plays and best values. Kluber in particular should be a heavy home favorite against a horrid White Sox team. We have a massive 10.3 K projection for him, despite the reduced batters faced projection. Scherzer is enticing because of the price discount to Kluber, but as noted above, that might not come into play if we get cheap fill ins in lineups.
With it being a Coors slate, it makes sense to complement Kluber with a more modest costing second SP. Even with some likely punts available, this may be necessary to pay up for the premiere Coors bats. Seth Lugo (NYM) is our favorite cheap pay. Lugo has pitched consistently recently from a peripheral standpoint, posting an xFIP of 4.08 or lower in seven straight starts. He did get rocked against Chicago three starts ago, but had a solid K/BB ratio and GB rate in that game. Lugo is a favorite against a bad Phillies team that has just a 3.7 IRT against him, and the 5.1 K projection, while not gaudy, is one of the highest on the slate once you move past the elite tier of starting pitchers.
There are very few mid-tier SP options that grade out well, making it a stud or dud day at SP for the most part. Either pay up for a tier one SP or drop down to a cheap option that you can stack bats around. Some potential exceptions for tournaments in the mid-tier are Taijuan Walker (ARI) and Jameson Taillon (PIT).
With top arms and Coors Field on the slate, we’re trying to save as much as we can at catcher. But, you’ll get what you pay for. On DraftKings, Bruce Maxwell (OAK) is only $2,900 and will get a much better overall environment in Texas. There isn’t anything exciting about Maxwell, even with the platoon advantage – but the savings and the implied run total (5) are encouraging.
On FanDuel, an extreme cheapy is James McCann (DET). Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) is one of the top values that comes with some savings at $2,900. He gets a park boost to Philadelphia and will face veteran right-hander Henderson Alvarez.
Yasmani Grandal (LAD) would be much better plays – but their price tags make them tournament options.
Cody Bellinger (LAD) and Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) are the top projected scorers at the first base position, but their price tags likely have us moving to someone like Joey Gallo (TEX). Gallo has moved up in the order with the gradual removal of bats from the Texas order (Napoli, Beltre) and will get the platoon edge on Daniel Gossett. Gossett is the perfect beast for Gallo, someone who has allowed 2.01 HR/9 and has only posted a 17.2% strikeout rate. At $2,700 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings, Gallo is the top per dollar play at the position.
On FanDuel, the next cheap option that floods the per dollar ranks is Carlos Santana (CLE) who will face young right-hander Carson Fulmer. Given the Indians have little to play for, you’ll need to ensure he’s in the lineup, but he’s posted a .233 ISO against RHP since 2015. At $3,100 he’d be a fine tournament pivot off of Gallo. On DraftKings there is a strong drop from Gallo, but Rhys Hoskins (PHI) is priced to face Jacob deGrom but will actually face Seth Lugo. Lugo has allowed a ton of hard contact, and Hoskins has done little else but homer. He’d be an alternative in cash games to Gallo.
Chris Taylor (LAD) and Rougned Odor (TEX) are the clear options at position on Saturday. Taylor is sub-$4,000 on DraftKings and will hit leadoff as the Dodgers play in Coors Field. German Marquez has been a fairly solid piece of the Rockies rotation, but he has still allowed 1.38 HR/9 and nearly 35% Hard contact via FanGraphs. Getting exposure to the road leadoff hitter in Coors for $3,900 is a strong cash game play.
Odor is $3,800 on DK, where he’s an acceptable alternative (albeit with a much worse lineup spot) but at $2,200 on FanDuel he provides us with a ton of value at a weak position overall. We mentioned Daniel Gossett’s struggles with the long ball, but Odor too has posted a .226 ISO against RHP since 2015. Drew Robinson (TEX) is very cheap and 2B eligible on both sites, and will also draw the Daniel Gossett matchup. There is actually a chance he draws a better lineup spot than Odor, and in that case, he would be a solid alternative. Robinson Cano (SEA) and Daniel Murphy (WSH) are in a strange middle tier on FanDuel where nearly everyone (other than Odor and Robinson) are priced.
Jake Lamb (ARI) and Justin Turner (LAD) are the top guys at the hot corner on Saturday. Lamb seems to be the play on FanDuel, where he’s a bit cheaper but the top per dollar play. Jake Junis has been fairly solid for the Royals and Lamb is getting a negative park shift, but he’s been a monster against RHP (.361 wOBA, .231 ISO since 2015). With little other values surrounding him on FanDuel, we’d prefer to find a way to fit him.
Turner is the better overall option, but is priced up on FanDuel, but very accessible on DraftKings at $4,400. Facing a same-handed pitcher? Who cares, he’s been excellent in that split (.382 wOBA, .211 ISO since 2015). Joey Gallo (TEX) is 3B eligible on DraftKings as well should you wish to be a bit different in tournaments and are using someone else at 1B. Nolan Arenado (COL) will have to face Clayton Kershaw, but the Rockies might still be playing for something. Try hard narrative?
There are a handful of similar values at the shortstop position on both sites, but our favorites are Marcus Semien (OAK) and Elvis Andrus (TEX) on DraftKings (with Andrus circling back on FanDuel). Both of these guys are playing in one of the best games contextually, and will be hitting near the top of the order for mid-tier price tags. Semien comes with the more legitimate power upside against Andrew Cashner (5.29 xFIP), but Andrus has event upside as well against the frequently mentioned Daniel Gossett.
It would be great to be able to roster Corey Seager (LAD) in Coors Field, but he’s a bit too much to fit in on either site. Alex Bregman (HOU) is SS eligible on DK and will get the platoon edge and lineup spot boost against Daniel Pomeranz for only $4,200.
Paul DeJong (STL) and Jean Segura (SEA) offer themselves as mid-tier tournament options.
The week continues where Mike Trout (LAA) dominates the value rankings. Unfortunately his price tag, the top arms, and Coors Field don’t mix well.
Instead we’re looking towards Shin-Soo Choo (TEX), Nomar Mazara (TEX), and Jay Bruce (CLE) as three of the best overall outfield plays on both sites. Little needs to be said about the matchup for Choo and Mazara, but they are priced so affordably on both sites and get the great context that is their home park. The implied run total at 5.5 runs is also the highest non-Coors total on the slate.
Bruce will hopefully be in the lineup for an Indians team that isn’t playing for much. Carson Fulmer figures to be good down the road, but he’s posted an xFIP north of six and has allowed nearly two home runs per nine. Curtis Granderson (LAD) leadoff last night when Chris Taylor took a seat (Taylor expected back) but even if he drops to sixth he’s a good value in Coors Field with the platoon edge on German Marquez.
Adam Duvall (CIN) has dropped in the lineup and to $2,200 on FanDuel. He still possesses massive power upside and will have the platoon edge on Jon Lester. Delino DeShields (TEX), Carlos Gomez (TEX), Khris Davis (OAK), and Matt Joyce (OAK) just add to the massive amount of players that rate well in the great environment in Texas. For Davis and Joyce, their opponent Andrew Cashner has rarely been beaten as badly as he’s deserved, but again, he’s posted xFIPs of 8.44, 5.77, and 6.47 in his last three. You can attack him.
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) has OF eligibility on DK. Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) is vying for 60 home runs (narrative). And Billy Hamilton (CIN) is facing Jon Lester as the ultimate upside play on the bases. Enjoy the last Saturday of the season!
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
The stack section is difficult to write with so much lineup uncertainty, but the Dodgers on the road in Coors are likely to lead the section.
2) Texas Rangers
The Rangers have the highest IRT on the slate (no Coors Field total yet, however). Texas, while not scorching hot anymore, is going to be a very favorable hitter’s park, with temperatures cooling down stadiums even more so elsewhere. They’ll face Daniel Gossett, whose high Hard-Soft% has led to an elevated HR/FB% and ultimately just over 2 HR/9.
3) Cleveland Indians
4) Arizona Diamondbacks
5) Colorado Rockies
6) Washington Nationals
7) Minnesota Twins
8) Miami Marlins
9) Los Angeles Angels
10) Oakland Athletics