September 5 CFB DFS Picks and Analysis – Like Taking Candy from a Noobie
Welcome to Saturday’s Late Slate edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
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*Format for players is: PLAYER (School at/vs. Opponent)
Authored by Chris Kay and Chris Pacheco
If paying up at the quarterback position, Cody Kessler (USC vs. Arkansas State) and Dak Prescott (Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss) represent the best options. Kessler is a very efficient/explosive quarterback (70 percent completion percentage/8.5 yards per attempt last season) and his passing volume (35 passing attempts per game last season) combined with remarkable production (averaged three touchdowns per game, and around 300 passing yards per game) gives him a nice combination of a safe floor/high upside. His matchup against Arkansas State should only add to that upside (ranked 81st in Def. S&P+ and they’re losing three defensive backs that started 13 games each last season).
Prescott is certainly not as good of a passer as Kessler (62 percent completion percentage) but he’s a dual threat monster. Prescott averaged 31 passing attempts and 16 rushing attempts during the 2014 season. The production was huge (27 passing touchdowns/3,449 passing yards; 14 rushing touchdowns/986 rushing yards). Mississippi State is losing a ton of offensive linemen as well as their number one tailback (Josh Robinson) but that won’t matter in a non-conference game against a weak Southern Miss defense (ranked 94th in Def. S&P+ in 2014). USC (implied total of 48 points) and Mississippi State (implied total of 41 points) have very high totals, which gives us further confidence in these two studs. There’s some slight risk here due to blowout potential (spreads are over 21 points in both games) but they’re the main focal points in their respective offenses. Both can be targeted in cash and GPPs, but their cash game value is highest on DraftDay where our value play is overpriced.