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September 5 MLB DFS: Add Some Braun
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Welcome to September 5 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 5 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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September 5 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
03:08 Starting Pitcher
14:27 Catcher
18:00 First Base
21:06 Second Base
24:08 Third Base
27:00 Shortstop
29:11 Outfield
32:02 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

September 5 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Tuesday’s slate is loaded with elite starting pitching options. Jacob deGrom (NYM) leads the way at the top with the softest matchup of the studs. He’s facing a Phillies’ offense that ranks 26th in wRC+ against RHP, is getting a park downgrade, and most importantly has struck out in nearly 24 percent of the batters faced. deGrom has dominated the Phillies this season (19 ⅔ IP, 13 hits, 3 ER, 24 K, and 3 BBs allowed) and the price tag on both sites is quite reasonable ($10,100 on FD, $12,600 on DK). We view deGrom as your building block in cash games. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) is the next highest projected scorer with a slightly more difficult matchup against the Marlins (18th in wRC+ against RHP with a league average K Rate). Strasburg has been pitching effectively and gets a park upgrade, but the price tag is consistent with deGrom and the projection falls shy due to matchup. These two are clearly ahead of the next tier of aces.

Zack Greinke (ARI) is in a tier of his own. The Dodgers’ struggles of late make him a compelling pivot given the substantially cheaper price tag ($10,400 on DK, $9,500 on FD). The park upgrade for Greinke is substantial in LA but the Dodgers are still commanding respect from Vegas with a 4.1 implied total that is a half run higher than his other competitors.

Justin Verlander (HOU) and Danny Salazar (CLE) are other high-priced options but they fall well short in projections. Salazar is returning from the DL with a soft matchup against the White Sox but a likely very limited pitch count. Verlander gets his first start with the Astros in a friendly environment but the Mariners present a difficult matchup (fifth in wRC+ against RHP with a league average K Rate). The same can be said for Kyle Hendricks (CHC) who has a low implied run total against (3.6 runs) but limited upside against the contact heavy Pirates lineup that ranks 28th in wRC+ against RHP.

The best value and option to pair with your SP1 is Michael Wacha (STL) who is severely underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings ($6,900) for an elite matchup with the Padres. Wacha’s velocity has been increasing of late (+0.6 mph on average FB over last five starts) but the results have remained inconsistent. The matchup with the Padres and the cheap price tag help ease any concerns over consistency. The Padres rank 27th in wRC+ against RHP and have struck out a league high 25.1 percent of the time against RHP. Wacha has an implied total against below four runs and one of the softest price tags on the entire slate. He’s a cash game target on DraftKings and a viable play on FanDuel in cash games but ideally a GPP pivot from deGrom and Strasburg.

The other potential GPP pivots that will very likely come with low ownership due to the plethora of SP options on this slate include: Julio Teheran (ATL), Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS), and Jake Odorizzi (TB). Miguel Gonzalez (TEX) has also had tremendous results of late and gets a softer matchup in the NL but none of the peripherals really support the recent strong performance outside of fly balls not leaving the yard. He’s cheap enough and even with the strong recent performance will carry little ownership on this slate.

Catcher

Buster Posey (SF) represents the top projected scorer at the catcher position and he’s also our best point per dollar value at the position. Posey is somehow just $2,900 on FD, where he should be viewed as a cash game lock. $4,100 on DK makes it at least a conversation, but Posey’s context (in Coors Field, hitting third) makes him a strong play on that site as well.

Salvador Perez (KC) and Stephen Vogt (MIL) are ways to save some money at the position and still hold some upside. Vogt hasn’t been in the lineup of late, but if he’s back in there he’ll have the platoon edge in Cincinnati vs. Robert Stephenson, who’s allowed a massive 25% hard minus soft hit rate.

Chris Iannetta (ARI), James McCann and John Hicks (DET) (punt price on FD) are other options to consider in tournaments. Of the trio, McCann stands out the most given a hefty .222 ISO baseline vs. LHP.

First Base

Freddie Freeman (ATL) is playing through a wrist issue, but he’s still hitting the ball hard and the results have been good of late. Freeman is the top projected scorer at first base and the context is juicy (fly ball prone pitcher in SunTrust Park). Freeman is a strong tournament target. Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) is right behind him in projection, and he’s generated a healthy 34% HHR over the L15. E5 is expensive, but he’s viable across all formats.

You’ll probably need to save some resources at the position in cash games, and that’s a fine route in this slate. You can have access to the Rockies offense with Mark Reynolds (COL) at the position, and his price tags are down around the industry. He’s just $4,100 on DK and he’ll have the platoon edge vs. contact oriented Ty Blach. Eric Thames (MIL) hasn’t been getting good lineup spots of late and he’s been PH for vs. LHP, but once again he draws a mediocre pitcher in Cincinnati. Lucas Duda (TB) has a matchup against Bartolo Colon and he’s cheap too. Hanley Ramirez (BOS) is $3,100 on FD and the HHR is up to 29% over the L15 (nice positive delta). He’s in Fenway facing fly ball prone Marco Estrada. These cheap targets are very playable in tournaments as well.

If you wanted so save even more money in tournaments, Greg Bird (NYY) will have the platoon edge against Jeremy Hellickson and he’s $3,100 on DK and $2,600 on FD.

Second Base

Our goal at the position is simple – save some resources while still holding some upside. Jonathan Villar (MIL) is $3,900 on DK. If he’s leading off, he’ll easily become the top point per dollar target at the position as he’s in Cincinnati. Villar is part of a Brewers team with an IRT that’s approaching five runs. Teammate Neil Walker (MIL) is $2,900 on FD and he’s been getting excellent lineup spots. Walker’s HHR is up to 28% over the L15. Paul DeJong (STL) also carries MPE on DK (2B/SS) where he’s just $3,300 in a matchup vs. Travis Wood. If you wanted to save even more money on DK, Ozzie Albies (ATL) is $2,300 and he’s been hitting second of late.

Jose Ramirez (CLE) and Eduardo Nunez (BOS) are a little more expensive than Villar on FD, but they’re worth their price tags in all formats. Ramirez’s HHR is up to 31.3% over the L15 and he’s facing David Holmberg (6.17 xFIP, 12.2% K rate). Jose Altuve (HOU) is priced appropriately, but we always love his upside, particularly vs. LHP. Altuve is the top projected scorer at a loaded position – we prefer him in tournaments.

Third Base

The position belongs to Nolan Arenado (COL), who’s the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. Arenado is in Coors Field and he’ll face Ty Blach, who’s generated a 11% K rate this season and that ugly K rate is backed up by a 6.4% SwStr rate. We’re pursuing Arenado aggressively across all formats.

The main pivot to Arenado in terms of projection is Freddie Freeman (ATL), but he’s just $500 cheaper on DK. At that point, we’d rather find a way to jam in Arenado in cash games. Freeman is viable in tournaments though given his awesome skills and plus context.

The route our projections prefer after Arenado is to play a cheap Travis Shaw (MIL). With Shaw you’re swallowing some recent performance risk (7.4% HHR over the L15), but the context is so strong (in Cincinnati, good lineup spot, awesome matchup) that we’re willing to ignore the cold stretch of late. Evan Longoria (TB) is even cheaper than Shaw on DK ($3,100), but he’s in an inferior hitting environment. The matchup vs. Bartolo Colon is strong, however, so Longoria deserves a look in cash games on that site. Pablo Sandoval (SF) is the stone cold minimum on FD. We know he sucks, but he’ll hit in the middle of the lineup in Coors Field. Based off the context alone you have to consider Sandoval in this slate.

Josh Donaldson (TOR) (platoon edge in Fenway Park – $3,800 on FD) and Eduardo Nunez (BOS) are other targets to consider in tournaments at a loaded position.

Shortstop

Trevor Story (COL) is the top projected scorer at the shortstop position, and he has a good price tags around the industry. Story will have the platoon edge in Coors, and we’re hoping that a matchup against a contact oriented SP will reduce his main risk, swinging and missing.

On DK, Paul DeJong (STL) is a very good alternative to Story, especially when you consider that he’ll hit in a much better lineup spot on the road and Story sometimes hits towards the very bottom of the lineup (even vs. LHP). Unfortunately, DeJong will be in Petco Park so he’ll be in challenging hitting environment.

Jonathan Villar (MIL) is SS eligible and he’s $3,100. If he’s leading off, he becomes a strong cash game target. We also get Brandon Crawford (SF) with a $3,200 price tag on FD and he’ll have the platoon edge in Coors. Crawford has been hitting cleanup for the Giants of late.

Alex Bregman (HOU) is a bit more expensive than Story on DK, but he can be used in tournaments with confidence. We love the upside that Bregman brings to the table (has been running more this season) and he’s facing a home run prone pitcher.

Outfield

Mike Trout (LAA) is the top projected scorer in the OF. He’s in a terrible hitting environment, but the main reason you’re unlikely to pursue him in cash games is a full price tag at a loaded position. We do like Trout in tournaments.

There are plenty of mid-tier and cheap targets to pursue at the position in cash games. Ryan Braun (MIL) is really cheap around the industry, Denard Span (SF) is the road leadoff hitter in Coors Field and he’s priced below the average cost of a roster spot on both sites, George Springer (HOU) is sub $4,000 on FD and he’ll have the platoon edge on the road, and Lorenzo Cain (KC) gets Anibal Sanchez on the road and he also has favorable price tags around the industry. Aaron Judge (NYY) is sub $5,000 on DK in a perfect matchup (Jeremy Hellickson – 14% K rate, 35% GB rate this season). Austin Jackson (CLE) gives you exposure to the Cleveland side (IRT is approaching six runs) with a solid price tag on DK. We’ll see where Eric Thames (MIL) lands in the Milwaukee lineup. If he hits fifth or better he’ll enter the cash game conversation on DK where he has OF eligibility. If you needed a OF3 punt to make everything else work, Nick Williams (PHI) is priced like a punt on DK. The matchup sucks (deGrom), but that’s why the price tag is so low to begin with.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have an implied run total over seven in Coors Field against a pitcher who can’t miss bats. The caveat here is that Blach can generate ground balls and the Rockies have been infuriating all year long. The good news is against LHP their big power hitters are substantially stronger bets for production against contact oriented lefties (Reynolds and Story specifically).

Tier Two

2) Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers always rate above their implied total in our model thanks to the combination of power and speed upside the entire team possesses. The Brewers are cheap on both sites and fit the slate very well with high-end starting pitching.

Tier Three

3) Cleveland Indians

4) San Francisco Giants

5) Houston Astros

The Giants will carry ownership on FanDuel where they’re absurdly cheap and get you exposure to a road team in Coors Field. Cleveland and Houston are more contrarian targets on this slate, especially Houston in one of the tougher hitting parks on the slate. Cleveland gets the benefit of a guaranteed ninth inning against one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball.

Tier Four

6) St. Louis Cardinals

7) New York Yankees

8) Boston Red Sox

9) Tampa Bay Rays

10) Kansas City Royals

11) Texas Rangers

The fourth tier should also come with lower ownership than usual. The Cardinals may be overstated in ranking with a few unknown statuses on key players like Tommy Pham. Temperatures in the northeast are more muted as we approach the fall but elevated rain chances could keep ownership incredibly low in a park very favorable for the long ball for the Yankees-Orioles game. The Royals figure to carry some ownership given the hefty implied total, the Tigers awful pen, and Anibal Sanchez‘s struggles with the long ball but they don’t rate as well for us due to a lack of depth in the lineup. The price tags on both sites are cheap which makes them a strong overall play despite the ranking in our tiers, but if ownership is going to gravitate there we’d rather attack Milwaukee.