FNTSY SportsGrid RotoExperts
September 6 MLB DFS: Hot Carrasco Sauce
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
Print Friendly

Welcome to September 6 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 6 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

premium_access_now  CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS  |  HITTER SPLITS  | PITCHER SPLITS  |  SORTABLE STATS  |  PITCHER TRENDS  |  LINEUPS  |  LEADERS

September 6 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:55 Starting Pitcher
06:21 Catcher
08:44 First Base
11:42 Second Base
14:32 Third Base
16:30 Shortstop
19:03 Outfield
23:34 Stacks

1x

mlb_premium_pod

CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

September 6 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) is by far our top projected scorer at the pitcher position and is a worthwhile spend in all formats. Carrasco is the largest favorite (-280) with the lowest IRTA (3.4) as he takes on the terrible White Sox lineup versus RHP. Aside from the elite matchup, Carrasco is the most talented pitcher in the slate, most notably carrying in a 27.7 K% on the season (31.3 over his last five games).

Jose Quintana (CHC) is the next in line option to Carrasco. Quintana is a strong favorite with a low IRTA in a good pitching environment. The issues here are a combination of a high price, a contact oriented opposing team that sets up pretty well against LHP, and some recent run prevention issues (although the Ks have been great). We prefer him as a tournament pivot to Carrasco or as an outright fade.

The best value play on this slate comes with some risk. Jack Flaherty (STL) gets a dream matchup against the Padres and has the K rate projections necessary to pay off this tag. He struck out 25.1% of batters faced in AAA. He has run prevention risk (FIP and xFIP at AAA over 4, rocked in his MLB start). If Flaherty can keep the runs allowed in check, he should be able to pitch 5-6 innings and provide around a strikeout per inning. Facing a weak Padres lineup in a big park should help his expected HR issues at the big league level.

On a large slate, there are several viable mid-tier tournament pivots if you don’t want to go all the way up to Carrasco or take on Flaherty’s downside. The options that are model likes most here are Sonny Gray (NYY ), Dinelson Lamet (SD) (29.5 K% makes him a natural GPP target), and Cole Hamels (TEX) (positive league shift, weak ATL lineup that offers lots of L/L matchups).

Catcher

Buster Posey (SF) represents the top projected scorer at the catcher position and he’s also our best point per dollar value at the position. Posey is now up to $4,000 on FanDuel where his price is restrictive for cash games, but at $4,200 on DraftKings is a reasonable cash game spend. Posey will draw the platoon edge on Kyle Freeland and despite horrific recent batted ball data, the positive contextual shift and his prowess against LHP (.378 wOBA, .189 ISO since 2015) makes him a premier target.

To reiterate the last few nights, Salvador Perez (KC) is a way to save some money at the position and still hold some upside, particularly on FanDuel at $2,500 where he offers a massive discount over Posey. The matchup with Matt Boyd offers power upside as well given Boyd’s fly ball prone nature.

Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) offers an even more extreme cap relief with his near minimum price tag on both sites. He’ll draw an exploitable power matchup with Nick Pivetta, who allows a ton of hard contact. d’Arnaud slid all the way up to the cleanup spot last night. John Hicks (DET), Yasmani Grandal (LAD), and Nick Hundley (SF) fill the ranks and are suitable tournament options should they find their way into lineups.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) leads the conversation on both sites, drawing a matchup with young right-hander Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez grades really well over time, but has struggled in his brief major league career only getting 25.6% of balls on the ground and allowing 2.20 HR/9 in his three starts.

After Encarnacion, the conversation shifts to some cheaper options in Mark Reynolds (COL) and Joey Gallo (TEX). Reynolds will take advantage of the environment Coors provides, and the declining strikeout and groundball rates of Johnny Cueto. Cueto has only produced a GB% over 40% in one of his last five starts, and has also struggled with his command in that time. Gallo has settled into good lineup spots for the Rangers and will get the pushed back start of Julio Teheran, who struggles with LHB (.206 ISO allowed to LHB since 2015). The price is similar enough to Reynolds that we wouldn’t make the spend in cash games, but he’s a great tournament pivot.

Hanley Ramirez (BOS) is a very cheap alternative on FanDuel at $2,800. Opposing starter Joe Biagini has been able to keep the ball on the ground, but has allowed a lot of hard contact this season and Hanley opens up spending elsewhere. Carlos Santana (CLE) brings the same matchup as Edwin Encarnacion, and will even come with the platoon advantage. Greg Bird (NYY) remains very cheap and has a .222 ISO against RHP in his young career.

Second Base

A tale of two sites lists Jose Ramirez (CLE) as the top value on FanDuel while Ozzie Albies (ATL) takes that honor on DraftKings. Ramirez has posted excellent batted ball data in the last fifteen days (31.3% Hard%) and is the top projected scorer at the position, but his price is restrictive on DraftKings at $5,600 (a reasonable cash game spend on FanDuel at $3,700). Albies on the other hand is just $2,200 on DraftKings and has solidified himself as the second place hitter in the Braves order. The young bat has held his own thus far (108 wRC+) in his short career, and while he doesn’t project overly from an event standpoint (ZiPS R.O.S. .124 ISO) the price tag is too good to overlook.

Whit Merrifield (KC) rates well on both sites, drawing the platoon edge on Matt Boyd, the fly ball prone left-hander. Merrifield has taken a big step up in the power department (.176 ISO) and has showcased other event upside with 27 stolen bases this season. He’s more intriguing at $4,000 on DraftKings, but still rates well on FanDuel at $3,600. Rougned Odor (TEX) is just $3,500 on DraftKings and will get the wide platoon splits of Julio Teheran. Jose Altuve (HOU) would represent an excellent spend against Mike Leake, but he’s a bit better for tournaments.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL) is the guy on both sites at 3B, but spending for him might be an issue on FanDuel where he is $4,600. After Arenado, the conversation turns to some middle tier options like Anthony Rendon (WSH) and Jake Lamb (ARI) on FanDuel. You’ll still need to spend a bit, but Rendon has been a monster against LHP posting a .373 wOBA and .201 ISO since 2016. Lamb will draw the platoon edge on Kenta Maeda. Similarly to Rendon, he’s been a handful for the opposite handedness, posting a .235 ISO against RHP since 2015.

On DraftKings we prefer to use Arenado, but you have the chance to take advantage of a handful of players with dual-position eligibility. Joey Gallo (TEX), Eduardo Nunez (BOS), and Sean Rodriguez (PIT) are just a few names. There aren’t a lot of ways to save at the position on FanDuel, but if need be Pablo Sandoval (SF) and Maikel Franco (PHI) are options at $2,600. Sandoval will flip around and get the platoon edge on Kyle Freeland in Coors Field and Franco will get the disastrous Matt Harvey on short rest.

Shortstop

Few per dollar values at the position leave us looking towards Francisco Lindor (CLE) or Trea Turner (WSH) at the shortstop position on Wednesday. On DraftKings, it is reasonable to be able to fit one of the two in, given our savings at the second starting pitching position. Unfortunately, the plot twists a bit on FanDuel where we aren’t afforded the same values. Trevor Story (COL) is $3,400 on FanDuel and has posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days. He bumped up to 6th in the order last night (albeit with the platoon edge) and his strikeout issues could be mitigated by Cueto’s dwindled strikeout rate (20.0% K%). Carlos Correa (HOU) is back and is $3,700 on FanDuel, a price tag that might not be available for long. Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) is still shortstop eligible on FanDuel and will get the platoon edge on Mike Leake, albeit from a lower lineup spot. He’s $3,000 and is a way to get exposure to the Astros lineup that has an implied run total above five runs, despite a horrendous park environment.

Freddy Galvis (PHI) rates well on both sites, but isn’t an option at $3,400 on FanDuel. Instead, you can utilize his savings at $2,600 on DraftKings if not taking advantage of one of the top bats.

Outfield

No value at shortstop? Never fear, the outfield is here. Charlie Blackmon (COL) leads a whole host of Coors Field bats, not limited to, but including Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Gerardo Parra (COL), and Hunter Pence (SF). This entire group will be handed the platoon edge, and most notably, we have encouraging signs of batted ball data for Pence and CarGo, who have had less than ideal seasons. As CarGo has stabilized a bit (still no homers since 8/18), his price has remained stagnant and he’s an excellent value at $3,200 on FanDuel and $3,700 on DraftKings.

Jay Bruce (CLE) is an excellent source of value elsewhere, but he’s missed four straight games with a neck problem. The Indians have noted they expect him back soon, but be sure to check lineup alerts before locking him into your lineups. Lorenzo Cain (KC), Jayson Werth (WSH), and Andrew McCutchen (PIT) all provide some mid-tier value, and perhaps lower ownership given the ease at which you can roster Coors Field. Cain will get the platoon edge on Matt Boyd, a fly ball oriented left-hander, Werth will get the platoon edge on a young left-hander (.392 wOBA, .277 ISO against LHP since 2015) and McCutchen can look to exploit the home run problems Jose Quintana has had (14.4% HR/FB ratio).

Sean Rodriguez (PIT) is the bare minimum on both sites at $2,000. Despite our disdain for his cooler fighting skills, he has posted a .194 ISO against LHP since 2015 and hit second in his last start against a LHP (ironically against Quintana). Nick Williams (PHI) remains stupid cheap on DraftKings at $2,100 and he’ll get the disastrous Matt Harvey (5.01 xFIP, 2.12 HR/9). Oh and we probably shouldn’t leave out Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) who will draw the platoon edge (.404 ISO against LHP since 2015) and Aaron Judge (NYY) who will get Kevin Gausman (1.48 HR/9, .192 ISO allowed to RHB since 2015).

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

The Rockies bring a slate high 6.5 IRT into their home matchup against the Giants and Johnny Cueto, who is making his second start after returning from the DL. Cueto’s had a tough season as slight deteriorations in skill have opened up the cracks in what quietly a shaky profile (fly ball oriented).

Tier Two

2) Cleveland Indians

3) San Francisco Giants

These teams are clearly next in line but are in obvious situations to take advantage of and will be chalky.

Tier Three

4) Texas Rangers

5) Los Angeles Dodgers

6) Houston Astros

7) Kansas City Royals

8) Washington Nationals

9) Boston Red Sox

The Rangers are in the third tier but there’s some separation between them and the other teams making them a good contrarian stack given a middle of the pack team total. While they lose the DH, they’ll be able to get heavily left handed against Julio Teheran in a positive hitting environment. Teheran has allowed a .353 wOBA and .206 ISO to LHBs since 2015.

Additional Tournament Teams

-Philadelphia Phillies: