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September 7 MLB DFS: Gone (Carlo) Fishing
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Welcome to September 7 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 7 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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September 7 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
07:33 Catcher
09:53 First Base
13:34 Second Base
15:01 Third Base
18:37 Shortstop
20:30 Outfield
26:23 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

September 7 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Corey Kluber (CLE) and Clayton Kershaw (COL) headline the short evening slate. Typically the decision between two elite studs in very favorable matchups is a difficult one but with Kershaw on a 90 pitch limit, it’s a relatively easy decision between the two. Kluber faces an awful White Sox lineup that is filled with minor league talent and hefty strikeout rates. We’re projecting Kluber for a ridiculous 11+ strikeouts. Both starters have implied totals below three runs and both are ridiculous favorites. Kluber’s projection and upside are higher with Kershaw working his way back.

The two are an expensive pairing on DraftKings but one that is made viable by all the cheap bats and September call-ups. While there are other alternatives that will allow to jam in more offense, the “value” SPs on this slate are all priced up. It’s not a clear decision and ultimately comes down to lineups. Kershaw’s upside is limited at the current price tag so this is only a cash game discussion as GPP lineups should focus on pairing Kluber with a mid-tier starter. The next tier of targets has Lance Lynn (STL), Aaron Nola (PHI), Jon Lester (CHC), and Tanner Roark (WAS) all projecting similarly. Lester and Nola are the most skilled of the group but draw the tougher matchups. Both starters have also struggled wildly of late but only Nola has seen the price drop. Both Nola and Lester have held velocity and the swinging strike rates are solid but they’re allowing a lot more hard contact. At $8,500 against a primarily RH heavy Nationals lineup, Nola is an intriguing pairing with Kluber and gives you the best upside. Roark and Lynn draw the softest matchups against the Phillies and Padres respectively. Roark is the slightly cheaper option with the lower implied total against (3.5) and the preferred target if you’re uncomfortable with Kershaw’s tag or Nola’s recent performance.

The two cheap upside options on this slate are Carlos Rodon (CHW) and Jon Gray (COL). Both are able to rack up strikeouts but facing two of the best teams in baseball. Sometimes in September you get watered down lineups from elite clubs which could make either player a slightly more favorable play but we’d prefer the exposure in GPPs.

Catcher

J.T. Realmuto (MIA) is the top projected scorer at the catcher position. Realmuto will have the platoon edge tonight, and we have a .184 ISO baseline in this split for him. He’s a very strong cash game target around the industry with good price tags.

Salvador Perez (KC) and Yasmani Grandal (LAD) are the competitors at the position. Perez is coming off a monster game (two home runs), and we’re hoping that snaps whatever funk he was on. He’s simply underpriced around the industry given his power upside. Grandal has the tougher matchup (Jon Gray) and the bigger price tag. We prefer him in tournaments. Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) has been hitting cleanup and he’s really cheap on FD.

First Base

Joey Votto (CIN) is the top projected scorer at first base. Votto has a strong matchup against Matt Harvey, who just got pummeled in his last start (7 ER). A closer look indicates that Harvey wasn’t as bad as the actual results says he was in that start, but he’s just not missing bats. We love Votto in tournaments.

Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) stands out the most from a cash game perspective, but a challenging price tag on FD will make it difficult to roster him in that format. We prefer him on DK where the $4,500 is an easier fit. Encarnacion will have the platoon edge and comes into this matchup with a 34.3% HHR over the L15. Carlos Rodon is a talented pitcher, but he gives up home runs (1.56 HR/9 allowed this season).

If you can’t get to E5 on FD, Eric Hosmer (KC) and Tyler Moore (MIA) are fine alternatives. These are very different players as Hosmer is a contact machine while Moore strikes out a bunch. Hosmer is without a doubt the better hitter, but Moore’s minimum price tag and decent power potential with the platoon edge deserves a look on that site.

Freddie Freeman (ATL), Cody Bellinger (LAD) and Anthony Rizzo (CHC) carry appropriate price tags, but their upside (even if their contexts aren’t perfect) are worth pursuing in tournaments. Jose Martinez (STL) has been scolding hot of late (35.3% HHR over the L15). He’s priced up on DK now, but he’s a fine one off in tournaments.

Second Base

Brian Dozier (MIN) and Jose Ramirez (CLE) are the top projected scorers at second base. Ramirez has been ridiculous of late (averaging 18 DK points over his L10 games), but he’s now $5,400 on DK. The price tag feels lighter on FD ($3,800) but it’s still a challenge to pay it in cash games. We prefer these two in tournaments.

In cash games, go cheap with Ozzie Albies (ATL) on DK and Yangervis Solarte (SD) on FD. Albies is $2,200 on DK and he’ll hit second for an Atlanta team that has an IRT of 4.6 runs. Solarte is $2,400 on FD and LHBs are Lynn’s thorn (.350 wOBA, .196 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2015). Albies and Solarte are the best values at the position on the aforementioned sites.

Third Base

Freddie Freeman (ATL) (on DK) and Kris Bryant (CHC) (on FD) carry the top projections at third base but they’re priced appropriately around the industry. You can make a case for Freeman in cash games on DK where there isn’t a clear cut value. He’s the most skilled hitter at the position (.408 wOBA, .270 ISO baseline vs. RHP).

Nolan Arenado (COL) has a matchup against Clayton Kershaw and the Rockies have an IRT of 2.4 runs. We’re not looking to pick on Kershaw, but Arenado is so cheap on FD ($2,600) at a position with very little opportunity cost that using him in cash games is fine with Kershaw still on a pitch limit.

Sean Rodriguez (PIT) is minimum priced on DK, and we have him projected to hit sixth vs. a LHP. Rodriguez isn’t a very good hitter, but we do have a .200 ISO baseline for him in this split.

Unfortunately the matchup for Rodriguez isn’t very good either (Jon Lester), but the price tag puts him in play.

Justin Turner (LAD) and Mike Moustakas (KC) are way better hitters than Sean Rodriguez, but their price tags aren’t discounted anywhere. You could make a push for Moustakas in cash games on FD where he’s $3,100. We like to pick on his opposing pitcher, Kyle Gibson, with LHBs (.377 wOBA allowed to LHBs since last season.

Shortstop

Trea Turner (WSH) and Francisco Lindor (CLE) are the best talents at the shortstop position tonight and they also carry the best projections. Appropriate price tags keeps this a tournament conversation with these two around the industry.

Paul DeJong (STL) is the best point per dollar target at the position on FD. DeJong’s power is legit for the most part. He’s generated a .252 ISO and it’s backed up by a 43.7% FB rate and 36.4% Hard% according to fangraphs. Before he was called up to the majors, DeJong had generated a .271 ISO at AAA with a very similar FB rate. Tonight he’ll have the platoon edge as well. He’s a good tournament target on DK.

Freddy Galvis (PHI) is $2,800 on DK where he’s probably where you’ll end up at the position in cash games. Galvis has a little event upside, and he hits second with a cheap price tag. You could do worse. The other alternative on DK is paying a little more for Yangervis Solarte (SD) at $3,400.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) projects nearly two full Fantasy Points ahead of our next projected hitter, Joey Votto. Stanton will have the platoon edge vs. a fly ball prone pitcher in a good hitting environment. He’s the hitter we feel best about in this slate – we have a .425 wOBA, .368 ISO baseline for him in this split.

We’re making a big push for Stanton in cash games in this slate, but you’ll likely have to surround him with other cheap OFers to make it work. Jose Martinez (STL) ($2,600 on FD and has been hitting cleanup of late), Nick Williams (PHI) ($2,700 on DK), Sean Rodriguez (PIT) (on DK), Phillip Ervin (CIN) (if leading off), Andrew McCutchen (PIT) (sub $3,000 on FD), Stephen Piscotty (STL) ($2,300 on FD) and Matt Kemp (ATL) all fit the bill. We’ll need confirmation that Ervin is leading off with Billy Hamilton out of the lineup, but if he’s in there there’s speed upside at cheap price tags. Ervin swiped 59 bases in the minors over the L2 seasons and this is a strong matchup for his speed upside as opposing catcher Travis d’Arnaud struggles with the running game (-12 rSB in his career).

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) has a mid-tier price tag on DK that might be a challenge to fit next to Stanton in cash games. We like him as part of Marlins stacks in tournaments. Ozuna has generated a .370 wOBA and .194 ISO vs. LHP since 2015.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Miami Marlins

The Marlins represent the likely chalk on the slate with a few top hitters against LHP at their respective positions and a park shift in their favor. Newcomb has good stuff and the Marlins can swing and miss making them a viable fade if the expected ownership gets condensed on the small slate.

Tier Two

2) Cleveland Indians

3) Cincinnati Reds

4) Chicago Cubs

5) Minnesota Twins

Cleveland is an expensive pivot on DraftKings but the White Sox woeful bullpen leaves them with plenty of upside. The concern is late in the season the lineup they’ll run out. Cincinnati and Minnesota are the best contrarian pivots against bad bullpens and below average starters, while guaranteed a ninth inning of plate appearances.

The Cardinals lineups have been a mess of late but they have a lot of talent to hit LHP and they’re generally very cheap. This is a really interesting contrarian stack against Clayton Richard‘s ground ball tendencies.