FNTSY SportsGrid RotoExperts
MLB Daily Analysis

September 7 MLB DFS: Walker will do work on Labor Day

September 7 MLB DFS: Walker will do work on Labor Day
MAXEERNST
Print Friendly

Daily Fantasy Rundown- September 7 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Glossary: See a term you’re unfamiliar with? Check out our glossary page. If there’s something you’d like to see added there, please email us at help@dailyroto.com.

Weather: Delay threats in CHW and a late game in KC. In the KC game the threat is slightly larger and being later makes it trickier.

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

Catcher

The Play:

Buster Posey (SFG) – Posey is $3,200 on FanDuel and he will have the platoon edge in a great hitting environment (Chase Field). I’m not sure why his price point is so low but we’re not willing to roster anyone else on any site that has priced him like an average hitter. Posey is a remarkable hitter vs. LHP (.373 wOBA/146 wRC+/.183 ISO) and even though Patrick Corbin is a good pitcher, he’s not untouchable vs. RHBs (has surrendered a .320 wOBA/1.96 HR per 9 to righties in the last few seasons). Posey plays half of his games at AT&T stadium, a venue that deflates right handed power by around 10-12 percent below the league average). Chase Field is much friendlier for righties (inflates power by around five percent above the league norm). It’s close to a full slate (11 games) but Posey rates as the top option at the catcher position and it’s not close.

Additional catcher notes: Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) is a solid hitter when he has the platoon edge and his matchup is very friendly (Justin Nicolino is a southpaw that doesn’t miss any bats). He’s priced like Posey on most sites and 1) Posey is in a better environment and 2) Posey is a much better hitter vs. LHP. Lucroy is our second ranked catcher this afternoon, which gives him some appeal across all formats but Posey is the superior option in cash games at similar price points. If you don’t want to roster the top option at the position and you’d rather punt the position altogether, Yadier Molina (STL) has some appeal on sites where he’s significantly discounted to the recommendations above. He will hit no worse than sixth and Dan Haren doesn’t miss bats/he’s a fly ball pitcher (49 percent FB rate). That’s a fine context for Molina but keep in mind that the catcher position has worn him down as a hitter (.322 wOBA/.115 ISO for his career; .293 wOBA/.084 ISO this season).

First Base

Top Play:

Miguel Cabrera (DET) – Cabrera is our number one ranked hitter today. Cabrera continues to crush the ball (42 percent hard hit rate) and he has cut his SwStr rate (8.7 SwStr rate this season compared to 10 percent over the course of his career). Drew Smyly generates a healthy amount of swings and misses but he’s prone to RHBs. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, Smyly has allowed a .327 wOBA/1.20 HR per 9 to RHBs. This is a terrible spot for Smyly, as he has to face Cabrera (.427 wOBA/.246 ISO vs. LHP since 2012) and the second best offense vs. LHP. Cabrera is only $4,600 on DraftKings, which makes him an exceptional cash game target.

Next in line:

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) (Mike Leake is tough on RHBs but Goldschmidt is one of the best hitters in baseball and he has power/speed upside; he’s an elite tournament target around the industry and his asking price on FanDuel makes him cash game viable)

Value Play:

Justin Bour (MIA) – Bour is a league average hitter when he has the platoon edge (.338 wOBA/113 wRC+) but he does have above average pop (.183 ISO). That sort of power isn’t going to raise eyebrows at the first base position (a position that’s known for power) but Bour’s matchup gives him plenty of upside for his price around the industry. Zach Davies has only made one start at the major league level and it didn’t go very well (allowed a home run and four runs through 4 IP; fastball velocity averaged 88 MPH). ZiPS doesn’t project the rest of his starts to be very promising (4.85 ERA/1.37 HR per 9 for the rest of the season). Paying for a tier one starting pitcher is our main priority for cash games today and Bour’s relief at the first base position offers some financial flexibility for the rest of your lineup.

Additional first base notes: After going on a monster power streak (11 home runs/11 doubles in the month of August), Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) is priced fully on most sites. Opposing Rick Porcello is back to his old form (missing more bats than usual and he’s keeping the ball in the ground) but Vegas isn’t buying his recent success (Blue Jays have an implied team total of five runs). The Red Sox bullpen can provide plenty of upside for the Blue Jays and Encarnacion but we’re not willing to overpay for these hitters in cash games now that Porcello is healthier/has figured out things mechanically. Encarnacion is a worthy tournament option around the industry except on DraftKings, where his price is fine enough to consider for cash games. Michael Pineda is a good pitcher but Chris Davis (BAL) will have the upside of hitting towards that short porch at Yankee Stadium. There’s risk here for Davis (he strikes out a ton and Pineda misses bats at an above league norm) but the environment alone gives him plenty of tournament upside. That’s where you should target Davis this afternoon. Pedro Alvarez (PIT) is cheap around the industry and he’s in a great hitting environment (Great American Bank Park) facing a pitcher (Anthony DeSclafani) that struggles with LHBs and power. Like Davis, Alvarez strikes out a ton but his upside comes via power. This matchup/ballpark could help that power. We like Alvarez in tournaments today.

Second Base

Top Play:

Jose Altuve (HOU) – Altuve is an awesome hitter vs. LHP (.388 wOBA) and he’s always a threat to steal multiple bases (45 SB upside over a full season). Generally speaking, LHPs are able to control the running game better than RHBs but that’s not the case with Felix Doubront. Doubront has posted a -2 rSB over the course of his career and he has surrendered a .341 wOBA to RHBs. There’s upside in this matchup for Altuve and his price point isn’t prohibitive on any site. He’s in play across all formats today.

Next in line:

Dee Gordon (MIA) (one of my favorite tournament options on this slate; Gordon isn’t a very good hitter but he has a ton of speed upside and Jonathan Lucroy has posted a -7 rSB over the course of his career)

Value Play:

Neil Walker (PIT) – Walker’s asking price around the industry is too cheap, particularly on FanDuel ($2,400). Walker has seen his ISO drop from .195 last season to .158 this season and that has something to do with luck. While Walker has hit the ball harder this season (32 percent hard hit rate) than last season (29 percent hard hit rate), his HR/FB rate was higher last season. Walker is generating the same amount of loft as last season (39 percent FB rate) yet his HR/FB rate is down by about five percent (13.9 percent HR/FB rate last season; nine percent this season). This has taken a toll in his home run totals this season (13 home runs) compared to last season (23 home runs) but we remain hopeful that more power could be in store this month. ZiPS believes this too (ZiPS projected .166 ISO) and this matchup could help turn Walker’s home run luck in the right direction. Anthony DeSclafani has surrendered a .343 wOBA and 1.29 HR/9 to 422 LHBs at the major league level and the environment won’t help him. Keep in mind that Walker has historically hit RHP well (.352 wOBA/.196 ISO), which gives us enough confidence to name him the best industry wide value play at his position.

Additional second base notes: Anthony Rendon (WSH) has historically been an above average hitter vs. LHP (.357 wOBA/128 wRC+) and Jon Niese (.332 wOBA allowed to RHBs since 2013) doesn’t pose much of a threat). Neil Walker is consistently priced below Rendon around the industry and he’s in a better environment/hits for more power. Rendon is still a fine cash game pivot thanks to his above average skills vs. LHP. Ian Kinsler (DET) has historically hit LHP well and Drew Smyly is a bit power prone vs. RHBs. Kinsler is priced wildly different around the industry. On sites where he’s priced as an average hitter (DraftKings), Kinsler is a fine target for cash games. He’s a worthy tournament option on sites where he’s priced fully. Logan Forsythe (TB) hits LHP very well and Randy Wolf isn’t any good. Forsythe is priced too closely to Jose Altuve around the industry, which makes him a better target for tournaments.

Shortstop

Top Play:

Carlos Correa (HOU) (priced fully around the industry but he’s worth his price; Correa has accumulated a .410 wOBA/.291 ISO in almost 100 PAs vs. LHP and Felix Doubront has given up a .341 wOBA to righties)

Top Play:

Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) – The Blue Jays matchup is a bit complicated to evaluate today. While opposing pitcher Rick Porcello has struggled for the most of the season (bad run prevention and wasn’t missing bats), he has rediscovered his old self. After being activated from the DL, Porcello has made two starts (15 IP) and has only allowed one earned run while striking out 18 hitters in that timespan. Red Sox pitching coach Carl Willis has attributed this success to mechanical adjustments and a return of his best pitch (the sinker). I’m not sure that Vegas has adjusted for this but they’re not believers today (Blue Jays have the highest implied team total on this slate, five runs). While I don’t think that picking on Porcello with high priced hitters is the way to go this afternoon, Tulowitzki’s price isn’t prohibitive and he’s a shortstop (typically a position that doesn’t have much depth in terms of value). Tulowitzki is a .375 wOBA/.201 ISO hitter vs. RHP and he hits right after Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. If you want to invest in a Blue Jays hitter today, Tulowtzki is the one option that I’m willing to roster confidently in cash games relative to his price/position.

Value play:

Ian Desmond (WSH) – Desmond has been an underwhelming hitter this season (.298 wOBA) but he continues to hit for power (.161 ISO), which keeps him in the conversation for DFS. Jon Niese doesn’t pose a big threat (.332 wOBA allowed to RHBs) and even though Desmond hasn’t been very good this season, he has historically hit LHP at a league average rate (.335 wOBA/112 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2012). If you can’t afford Tulowitzki in cash games, Desmond serves as a nice pivot as long as he’s not priced too close to him.

Additional shortstop notes: Asdrubal Cabrera (TB) and Jean Segura (MIL) are next in line options to the recommendations above. Cabrera has been hitting fifth vs. LHP as of late and Randy Wolf isn’t a good pitcher (terrible run prevention and he doesn’t miss bats). Segura faces a LHP that has accumulated a 3.07 K/9 and he will lead off for the Brewers. I’d let price points dictate decisions between these two shortstop options. Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) is minimum priced on FanDuel, which makes him a nice punt play on that particular site. We’re not sure if Gonzalez will hit second any longer (George Springer is back) but if he does, that sort of price point gives you tons of financial flexibility for the rest of your lineup.

Third Base

Top Play:

Alex Rodriguez (NYY) – Rodriguez’s 2015 season has been one of the better stories in baseball. Rodriguez hadn’t played baseball in almost two years (hip surgeries/was suspended for the 2014 season) and it was impossible to get a sense of what his production would look like when he finally took the field. He’s not the same hitter he once was, but that’s probably unfair for a 40 year old hitter. He’s still remarkably productive, posting a .365 wOBA/133 wRC+/.234 ISO in 2015. He has been even more productive vs. LHP (.417 wOBA/.304 ISO in 156 PAs vs. LHP) and opposing pitcher Wei-Yin Chen struggles with righties (.337 wOBA and 1.36 HR/9 vs. RHBs since 2013). Rodriguez is priced close to the average price of a hitter on most sites, and relative to his production/matchup, there’s value in that price. He’s our top play at third base and a worthy option across all formats.

Next in line:

Evan Longoria (TB) (Randy Wolf isn’t any good and Longoria has historically hit LHP very well; he’s priced around Alex Rodriguez on DraftKings and he’s more expensive than Todd Frazier on FanDuel, which makes him a better target for tournaments)

Value Play:

Todd Frazier (CIN) – Frazier is close to the bare minimum on FanDuel. That price tag makes no sense relative to his historical production vs. LHP (.359 wOBA/.250 ISO vs. LHP since 2012) and a matchup against the average Jeff Locke at Great American Ball Park. Frazier is generating more loft this season (46 percent FB rate; 41 percent over the course of his career), which has given him an uptick in power (30 home runs/39 doubles this season). I consider Frazier a core play of cash game rosters on FanDuel and any site that dared to price him as a minimum priced hitter.

Additional third base notes: Josh Donaldson (TOR) has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season and he’s priced fully on every site as a result. Rick Porcello has regained his old form, which makes Donaldson a tournament only option relative to his high price. Matt Carpenter (STL) has a matchup against the home run prone Dan Haren (1.71 HR per 9 allowed to LHBs since 2013). His price is fair around the industry but we would rather target him in tournaments (Rodriguez and Frazier are better cash game options relative to their skills/environments). Derek Dietrich (MIA) is about a league average hitter vs. RHP (115 wRC+ in 514 PAs) but he can hit for power (.207 ISO). He’s a good salary relief option on sites where he’s priced significantly below the recommendations above.

Outfield

Top Plays:

Ryan Braun (MIL)/Andrew McCutchen (PIT) – Braun (.405 wOBA/.256 ISO) is one of the best hitters in baseball when he has the platoon edge and Justin Nicolino has a higher BB percentage (7.8) than K percentage (6.2) vs. RHBs. Braun ranks just behind Miguel Cabrera in our hitter’s model today. McCutchen ranks behind Braun (third ranked hitter) and he’s a viable alternative across all formats. McCutchen (.388 wOBA/.204 ISO) has a difficult matchup with Anthony DeSclafani (.306 wOBA/0.49 HR per 9 allowed to RHBs) but the environment (Great American Ball Park) is much better than his home venue (PNC Park).

Next in line:

Jose Bautista (TOR) (ranked just behind Braun and McCutchen in our model; the matchup might be a bit more difficult than perceived but Bautista is one of the best hitters in baseball, which makes him a tournament worthy option)

Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – Gonzalez’s best price point is on DraftKings ($4,400), where he’s priced close to the average price of a hitter. On that site only, Gonzalez makes sense for cash games despite his bad context. Gonzalez is coming from the best environment in baseball (Coors Field) and he’s hitting at Petco (a pitcher’s park) today. Ian Kennedy isn’t a great matchup (misses bats at an above normal rate) but he does allow home runs (1.72 HR per 9 this season). Gonzalez has generated 23 home runs in his last 46 games. Target Gonzalez in tournaments on sites that have priced him fully.

Value Plays:

Jayson Werth (WSH) – Werth (.413 wOBA/.242 ISO) has historically crushed LHP, which is the main reason why he’s listed atop the value section at his position. Opposing pitcher Jon Niese isn’t terrible but he’s not very good either (.332 wOBA allowed to RHBs since 2013). Vegas agrees, pegging the Nationals with an implied team total approaching 4.5 runs. Werth hasn’t been very good this season (.293 wOBA/.145 ISO) but he started to put it together in the month of August (.313 wOBA/.190 ISO). He might not be that dominant of a hitter vs. LHP moving forward but even if he loses about 10-15 percent of that production, he would still be a nice hitter vs. southpaws. Werth is our 15th ranked hitter and he’s in play in both cash games and tournaments this afternoon.

Gregory Polanco (PIT) – Polanco ranks just behind Jayson Werth in our model. He’s not the same dominant hitter as Werth when he has the platoon edge (.324 wOBA/.127 ISO) but he has speed upside (30-35 SB upside over a full season) and his matchup is phenomenal. Opposing pitcher Anthony DeSclafani hasn’t figured out lefties at this level yet (.343 wOBA and 1.29 HR/9 surrendered to LHBs) and Great American Ball Park won’t help him. The Pirates have an implied run total hovering around 4.5 runs and Polanco is their leadoff hitter. Polanco is a good cash game option today.

Chris Young (NYY) – Young (.336 wOBA) is a league average hitter vs. LHP but he hits for above average power (.201 ISO). He’s usually atop the Yankees lineup hitting second and this matchup vs. Wei-Yin Chen should help his power (1.36 HR per 9). Young feels like a core play of cash games on DraftKings relative to his cheap price ($2,700).

Rajai Davis (DET) – Davis (.357 wOBA/.172 ISO) has historically hit LHP very well and he’s close to the bare minimum on FanDuel ($2,300). We realize that Drew Smyly isn’t a bad pitcher (misses bats at an above league average rate) but he’s facing the second best offense vs. LHP in baseball today. Davis is a very strong value on that particular site and any site that has priced him well below the average cost of a hitter.

Additional outfield notes: Ben Revere (TOR) lags a bit behind the recommendations above due to his inferior skills but his value is attached to the offense he plays for. On sites where Revere is priced well below the average asking price of a hitter, I consider him a good value relative to the offense he plays for (Blue Jays are the best offense in baseball. We might disagree with Vegas on this one but they have still pegged the Blue Jays for the highest team total on this slate. It makes sense to target these hitters where they’re cheap. Justin Upton and Matt Kemp (SD) are one of my favorite mini-stacks this afternoon. Kyle Kendrick isn’t any good and these two have some power/speed upside. Kemp has been performing very well as of late, which is the main reason why his price is on the rise. Target both of these hitters in tournaments. J.D. Martinez (DET) deserves to be a part of Tigers stacks today (one of the best hitters that the Tigers have and Drew Smyly struggles with power). Charlie Blackmon (COL) could have a few plus opportunities to steal bases as long as he gets on base. Derek Norris is pretty bad when it comes to controlling the running game (-2 rSB over the course of his career). Target Blackmon in tournaments on sites that haven’t priced him like a Coors Field. Mookie Betts (BOS) will have the platoon edge against a pitcher that throws 83 MPH (Mark Buehrle). Buerhle is an annoying pitcher to target against (he always does better than what you anticipate) but Betts has been performing very well as of late and the Green Monster at Fenway Park helps righties. Target a fully priced Betts in tournaments. Brandon Moss (STL) hits for power or strikes out. We like this matchup for his power stroke (Dan Haren is very home run prone vs. LHBs and he doesn’t miss many bats). Target him in tournaments. Gerardo Parra (BAL) has a terrible matchup vs. Michael Pineda but Yankee Stadium’s short porch is great for power. Parra is tournament worthy on sites where he’s priced significantly below the options above.

Starting Pitcher

Rankings (price not considered):

Tier One

1a) Chris Sale (CWS)

1b) Max Scherzer (WSH)

Tier Two

3) Lance Lynn (STL)

4) Mike Fiers (HOU)

5) Ian Kennedy (SD)

6) Mike Pineda (NYY)

Tier Three

6) Trevor Bauer (CLE)

7) Patrick Corbin (ARI)

Tier Four

8) Felix Doubront (OAK)

9) Rick Porcello (BOS)

Top Plays:

Chris Sale (CWS)/Max Scherzer (WSH) – I’m paying for either Sale or Scherzer in cash games around the industry. Their run prevention is certainly appealing (Sale: 3.29 ERA/2.33 FIP; Scherzer: 2.89 ERA/2.75 FIP) but their ability to miss bats is what we love in DFS (Sale: 33 percent K rate/15 percent SwStr rate; Scherzer: 30 percent K rate/15 percent SwStr rate). In league average matchups, these two rate as our top plays at the position and there’s a drop in expected run prevention/Ks after them.

Sale is pitching in a more difficult environment (U.S. Cellular Field) but his K rate is also higher than Scherzer’s. They’re close enough in our model to let asking prices dictate our decisions. On sites where Sale and Scherzer are priced close to each other, we will take Sale’s higher K rate. However, Scherzer ($10,800) is priced way below Sale on FanDuel ($12,800) and that price gap is too significant relative to what our model is saying. Target Scherzer in cash games on FanDuel and any site that has priced him significantly below Sale (DraftDay is another site that has done this).

Next in line:

Lance Lynn (STL)/Mike Fiers (HOU) – Fiers and Lynn miss the same amount of bats (24 percent K rate) but Lynn’s matchup should generate more Ks. Lynn faces a Cubs offense that struggles to generate contact at a league average rate (24 percent K rate vs. RHP) while Fiers faces an Athletics offense that’s ranked towards the bottom half in K rate against righties (18 percent K rate). On sites where Lynn and Fiers are priced similarly, we prefer Lynn. Keep in mind that the Cubs are missing one of their best hitters (Kyle Schwarber is missing the series vs. the Cardinals), which makes the matchup even friendlier. Lynn and Fiers are fine complements to one of Sale or Scherzer on multiple starting pitcher sites. Unfortunately, their price points make it a bit difficult to have any financial flexibility on the hitting side (costs you almost 50 percent of the salary cap in order to fit these combos). We ultimately feel like that’s not necessary in cash games. Target Lynn and Fiers in tournaments.

Value Play:

Ian Kennedy (SD) – After posting a HR/FB rate over 21 percent in the first half of the season, Kennedy’s ERA was inflated (4.91 ERA in the first half). His ERA has dropped to 2.35 in the second half as his HR/FB rate has normalized close to the league average rate (12.5 HR/FB rate in the second half; league average is around 10-11 percent). He was simply unlucky in the first half of the season, as more baseballs left the yard than normal. While Lynn and Fiers are a bit out of reach for cash games on multiple starting pitcher sites, Kennedy has the friendliest asking price of the bunch. We’re glad this is the case, as his matchup (Rockies are ranked 21st in wRC+ and are striking out 20 percent of the time against RHP) and his ability to miss bats (24 percent K rate/10 percent SwStr rate) combined with solid run prevention makes him the best industry wide value play at his position.

Additional starting pitcher notes: Michael Pineda (NYY) has a difficult matchup against an Orioles offense that’s ranked inside the top 10 in wRC+ against RHP. That same offense is also striking out over 22 percent of the time against RHP. The environment is awful (Yankee Stadium plays very small for LHBs) but Pineda’s ability to miss bats (24 percent K rate) combined with an offense that strikes out a bunch gives him upside. Pineda is our favorite tournament option at the position. Patrick Corbin (ARI) is too cheap on FanDuel ($6,600). We realize that the matchup/environment aren’t friendly but he’s striking out around a batter per inning. At that cheap price point, Corbin deserves consideration for tournaments. Trevor Bauer (CLE) only deserves to be rostered in tournaments this evening. The environment (U.S. Cellular Field)/inability to consistently keep the ball inside the park (1.31 HR/9) makes him untrustworthy for cash games but like Corbin and Pineda, he misses bats (8.77 Ks per 9). The White Sox are a below average offense, which could help Bauer’s run prevention. We’re unsure about that last part, so we’re only taking his upside in tournaments. Felix Doubront (OAK) has been able to generate more ground balls this season (54 percent GB rate) and he’s not getting hit very hard (26 percent hard hit rate). He has been unlucky (.344 BABIP/67 percent strand rate), which means that his run prevention has a chance to improve (3.99 ERA/3.29 FIP). In a matchup against the K happy Astros, Doubront is a good option for multi-entry tournaments. He’s very cheap around the industry. Rick Porcello (BOS) has rediscovered his magic. After being activated from the DL, Porcello has allowed one earned run in his last 15 IP and he has struck out 18 batters in that timespan. His matchup is about as bad as it gets (Blue Jays are the best offense in baseball) but I don’t mind taking a shot in multi-entry tournaments with him. He shouldn’t be rostered outside of those formats.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (help@dailyroto.com) if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

1) Toronto Blue Jays

We might disagree a bit with Vegas since Porcello has been very good as of late but they have the highest team total on this slate. The tricky part is where can you have exposure to them in cash games? I’d let price points dictate decisions there. Revere and Tulowitzki ranked as the best values given their price points around the industry. The Red Sox bullpen is pretty terrible, so better opportunities are ahead for these hitters. Even though I won’t stack them in cash games, they have plenty of appeal in tournaments.

2) Pittsburgh Pirates

Anthony DeSclafani struggles a ton with LHBs and the Pirates have a few (Gregory Polanco, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez) that could hurt him. I’d consider Andrew McCutchen across all formats despite the R/R matchup. Starling Marte isn’t as good of a hitter vs. RHP as he is vs. southpaws but he’s priced fairly now. Include him in your Pirates tournament stacks.

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) Comerica Park

The Rays face Randy Wolf (terrible run prevention and doesn’t miss many bats) and they’re ranked third in wRC+ vs. LHP. I would stack Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria and Logan Forsythe in tournaments. The Tigers have a more difficult matchup but they have a better offense than the Rays in general. Drew Smyly isn’t exactly a shutdown pitcher vs. RHBs, which gives Rajai Davis, Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez upside in tournaments.

2) Boston Red Sox

Implied run total is 4.5 runs. Mark Buehrle throws a 83 MPH fastball and the Green Monster won’t help him. My favorite Red Sox mini-stack is Mookie Betts, David Ortiz and Rusney Castillo.

3) St. Louis Cardinals

Dan Haren is a fly ball pitcher that allows a ton of power. The Cardinals have some LHBs that could hurt him, particularly Matt Carpenter, Jason Heyward and Brandon Moss. Stack them in multi-entry tournaments.

4) Miami Marlins

Zach Davies doesn’t project to be very good at this level. The Marlins are one of the worse offenses vs. RHP but this matchup should help them tremendously. Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich deserve consideration as a stack.

5) Milwaukee Brewers

Justin Nicolino doesn’t miss any bats and the Brewers have about four hitters that can hit LHP. Jean Segura, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun and Khris Davis are tournament worth options.

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

Delay threats in CHW and a late game in KC. In the KC game the threat is slightly larger and being later makes it trickier.

BLT at NYY 1:00: Dry. Temps in the mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 4-8 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is a 6.

NYM at WSH 1:05: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind south 6-12 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is a 6.

TB at DET 1:08: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 80s. Air density is an 8, almost a 9. Wind south-southwest 8-16 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 3.

PIT at CIN 1:10: Dry. Temps near 90. Air density is an 8, almost a 9. Wind south-southwest 4-8 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4.

MIL at MIA 1:10: The retractable roof will likely be closed.

TOR at BOS 1:35: Dry. Temps near 90. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 12-25 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 9.

CLE at CHW 2:10: A 10-20% chance of a delay due to a thunderstorm at anytime. This is not a solid line of thunderstorms or anything like that so if anything does affect area, it will be of the pop up nature and these are very difficult to time. Temps in the mid to upper 80s. Air density is an 8, almost a 9. Wind southwest 8-16 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.

CHC at STL 2:15: Dry. Temps in the low 90s. Air density is an 8, almost a 9. Wind south 8-16 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 7.

HOU at OAK 4:05: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 80s. Air density is a 7, almost an 8. Wind west-northwest 7-14 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

COL at SD 4:10: Dry. Temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. Air density is a 7 or an 8. Wind northwest 7-14 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 4.

SF at AZ 4:10: Retractable roof. With temperatures in the low to mid 100s, the roof will likely be closed.

TEX at SEA 6:40: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the upper 60s falling into the low to mid 60s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind west-northwest 5-10 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

ATL at PHL 7:05: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 80s falling into the mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind southwest 7-14 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

MIN at KC 8:10: Thunderstorms around. Not a solid line but there will be scattered thunderstorms around all game long. While the ppd threat looks low to me, it has to be at least considered (~10%). Delay threat is there as well (20-30%). Almost impossible to time individual thunderstorms this far out. Temps in the mid 80s falling to near 80. Air density is a 9 becoming an 8. Wind south-southeast 8-16 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 7.

LAD at LAA 9:05: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 70s falling into the low 70. Air density is a 7. Wind west-southwest 10-20 mph lessening to 6-12 mph which blows out to right. The wind is an 8 becoming a 6

Facebook Comments
MLB Daily Analysis