Welcome to September 8 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 7 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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September 8 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:20 Starting Pitcher
12:32 First Base
15:23 Second Base
18:09 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
September 8 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Max Scherzer (WSH) is the top projected scorer at the starting pitcher position, and he doesn’t have a direct competitor in this slate from a projection standpoint. Scherzer is projected to outscore our next projected scorer by 14 points on FD. Scherzer projects as a cash game lock and that’s how we’re treating him in this slate. He has a matchup we love to pick on as the Phillies are ranked 25th in wRC+ and they’re striking out 23.7% of the time vs. RHP. Scherzer also has an IRTA of 2.7 runs in this slate, which is by far the lowest.
Yu Darvish (LAD) is the next in line target after Scherzer, but he’s well behind in projection. Darvish has been allowing more hard contact of late, and his K rate has been a little bit down over his L3 starts. He’s at home with a small IRTA facing a Rockies team that’s striking out 22.6% of the time vs. RHP. We like Darvish in tournaments – the recent performance will likely keep his ownership tame with Scherzer a part of this slate.
The best compliments for Scherzer on DK are Marcus Stroman (TOR) and Drew Pomeranz (TB). Pomeranz certainly has the better matchup for Ks (Rays are striking out 25.8% of the time vs. LHP – second worst mark in the league) and his own K skillset is better than Stroman’s, but there’s no denying that Stroman’s matchup is better for run prevention. The Tigers are a shell of the offense they used to be with the departure of key guys in the offense as well as regression of older players like Miggy and V-Mart. Stroman’s IRTA is sitting at 3.6 runs, which is the third lowest in the slate. Collin McHugh (HOU) is not far behind in projection, and he also draws a pretty favorable matchup for Ks (Oakland). McHugh enters the cash game conversation as a secondary target on DK where his price tag is very similar to Stroman’s.
Patrick Corbin (ARI), in our eyes, is in that SP2 conversation on DK. Corbin has been amazing in his L6 starts or so. He’s generating a bunch of soft contact (55.6% over his L5), racking up Ks (24.4% K rate over his L5) and even generating more GBs (60% GB rate over his L5). Not only is the recent performance ridiculous, but Corbin gets the Padres tonight albeit in a tough pitching environment. The only challenge we see with Corbin is that he’s over $1,000 more expensive than Stroman or Pomeranz, and we’re already paying a big price tag for Scherzer. He really stands out from a tournament perspective.
Jimmy Nelson (MIL), Masahiro Tanaka (NYY), Mike Clevinger (CLE), Matt Moore (SF) and John Lackey (CHC) all join the tournament conversation in this slate . Nelson and Tanaka are the most skilled starters of this group, but Nelson is facing the Cubs and Tanaka is in Texas. They don’t have perfect contexts, but we’re fond of their K upside. The same can be said for Clevinger, who’s a -165 favorite at home with a 6.4 K projection. His K rates are volatile but you can take that on in tournaments.
While Buster Posey (SF) continues to get good parks to hit in, he’ll remain the top value at the catching position. Posey’s tag is down to $3,700 on DK and $3,300 on FanDuel, and while the park shift in his favor greatly benefits his (seemingly meager) power potential, the matchup with Lucas Giolito isn’t to die for. Nevertheless, a good lineup spot and the skills he possesses make him a suitable cash game option (particularly on DK). After Posey there is a sharp drop in price tag for the targets we’re attracted to, given a slate with Max Scherzer.
Wilson Ramos (TB), Chris Iannetta (ARI), Austin Hedges (SD), and Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) are our favorite near minimum price options. Ramos will draw the most difficult matchup with Drew Pomeranz, but he’ll get the platoon advantage (.190 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and a positive park shift. Iannetta and Hedges get the luxury of Coors Field. Hedges will likely come with a bad lineup spot, but will get the platoon edge on Patrick Corbin. Iannetta should find himself in the second spot of the order and is $2,400 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings. Jordan Lyles was better out of the bullpen, but not much better, posting a 15.4% K% and still struggling with the long ball.
Taking advantage of Jordan Lyles will be a common theme in this positional analysis. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) is the top projected scorer at the position and is also the top per dollar value. Not only do the Diamondbacks have an implied run total approaching six runs, but Goldschmidt has posted excellent batted ball data as well (41.7% Hard%). Goldy will get Jordan Lyles, backed up by a bad bullpen and a great offensive scoring environment. It’s tough to fit him on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he’s a potential cash game fit.
After Goldy, it’s Joey Votto (CIN) and Justin Smoak (TOR). Votto is a tough spend, but Smoak is particularly valuable at $3,400 on FanDuel. The Blue Jays will get Buck Farmer, a right-hander has been able to register strikeouts, but has struggled with the home run ball (2.05 HR/9) as he’s been able to get the ball on the ground consistently. Smoak has posted a .248 ISO against RHP since 2015, and is an excellent pivot away from Goldschmidt where the money matters more on FanDuel. Smoak’s teammate Kendrys Morales (TOR) fits nearly the same mold and is even cheaper at $3,100 on FanDuel.
On DraftKings, both Jose Abreu (CHW) and Wil Myers (SD) are the cheaper options away from Goldschmidt. Abreu will get the platoon edge on Matt Moore, a fly ball arm that is now pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field. While the White Sox are a weak offense on the whole, Abreu is a tough out and has posted excellent batted ball data. Myers will get the platoon edge on Patrick Corbin (an arm we like) and a huge park upgrade in his favor. Much like Abreu, he’s a bit of a lone wolf on his team but has been successful against southpaws (.191 ISO since 2015) and is $3,700 on DK.
Second base is a tough position on this Friday slate. On DraftKings, the move might be to just eat as much salary as possible with someone like Tyler Saladino (CHW) at $2,300. Saladino is an extremely low floor, low upside player and likely won’t come with a good lineup spot, but provides so much salary relief that he’ll allow you to spend elsewhere with ease. If he were going to succeed, a matchup with Matt Moore might be the time. As far as other cheap options on the site, Ozzie Albies (ATL) and Daniel Descalso (ARI) are both options. Descalso has the most enticing matchup, but Albies will draw a good lineup spot and the wider platoon splits of Jose Urena.
On FanDuel, the conversation is a bit trickier as there aren’t many cheap options. The top options, Jose Altuve (HOU), Daniel Murphy (WSH), and Robinson Cano (SEA) are your top per dollar options at the position, but our preference is to spend at some other premium positions. That leaves us looking to Starlin Castro (NYY), Neil Walker (MIL), and potentially Yangervis Solarte (SD). Castro will draw an excellent matchup with left-hander Martin Perez in Texas. At $3,300 he’s a bit closer to the “cheap” end of the spectrum and the Yankees have a competitive implied run total at 5.5 runs. Walker will get the home run prone John Lackey, and he’ll get to hit from the left side, but Lackey has been good of late and their implied run total is just 3.8 runs moving away from Miller Park. Solarte is your drop down cheap option at $2,600. He’ll hit from the right side, but gets a park upgrade.
Jake Lamb (ARI) emerges as the top third basemen on the slate and he’s an excellent per dollar play as well. The batted ball data isn’t particularly encouraging, but his prowess against RHP (.363 wOBA, .234 ISO) and the matchup with Jordan Lyles is enough to overcome that. At $4,600 he’s in play on DraftKings, but he’s the lock on FanDuel at $3,000.
Where Lamb is less of a lock on DraftKings, Alex Bregman (HOU) is only $4,100. Jharel Cotton has been a mess this season (5.47xFIP, 36.1% GB%, 1.89 HR/9) and Bregman has been the opposite. In his first full season he’s posted a .190 ISO with 16 stolen bases and has locked down an excellent lineup spot. The $500 discount might come in handy on DraftKings. With a large gap in value between Lamb and Bregman, the conversation mainly shifts to tournament plays, where Josh Donaldson (TOR) becomes an option in his matchup with homer prone Buck Farmer. Todd Frazier (NYY) doesn’t come with an exceptional lineup spot but will get a great matchup with Martin Perez. He’s sort of dropped off our offensive radar, but has posted a .309 ISO against LHP since 2015. On FanDuel you can hit the bottom of the barrel as well, reaching for Tyler Saladino (CHW) at $2,100, or Pablo Sandoval (SF) for the bare minimum. However, on that site, we prefer just locking in Lamb.
Shortstop again is a bit site specific, but our preferences are with the Houston Astros. On FanDuel, Carlos Correa (HOU) is just $3,400 as his price hasn’t caught up to his return. Correa will get the aforementioned matchup with Jharel Cotton and he’s the top per dollar value on the site. The power has been there this season and he’s had no trouble with same-handed pitchers in his short career (.365 wOBA, .202 ISO). On DraftKings, the top per dollar value is actually Alex Bregman (HOU) who holds dual positional eligibility. After Bregman, Jose Reyes (NYM) and Ketel Marte (ARI) are the next best options on DraftKings. Reyes has locked down the leadoff spot for the Mets, and while he’s no longer the event oriented player he once was, he gives us a good lineup spot for $3,700. Marte has had a bit more of a fluid lineup spot, but will get the matchup with Jordan Lyles that we are trying to exploit. He’s $3,100 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel and is one of our favorite options if trying to go the cheap route. In two starts against RHP last week, he found himself in the second spot of the order.
David Peralta (ARI), AJ Pollock (ARI), and Steve Pearce (TOR) lead the way from a per dollar perspective on both sites. Pollock and Peralta both get the juicy matchup with Jordan Lyles, and the highest implied run total on the slate. Pollock has more encouraging batted ball data, and comes with the higher price tag but also is the more attractive event oriented player.
Pearce and the Jays have an implied run total of 5.4 runs and get the previously mentioned matchup with Buck Farmer. He’s won the leadoff lottery in Toronto and is $2,700 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings.
Curtis Granderson (LAD) has been rough in his short time in Los Angeles, but it’s brought his price down considerably. Jose Bautista (TOR), Pearce’s teammate stands out in the middle tier on both sites, but particularly on FanDuel where he is $3,400. The batted ball data is rough, but the matchup is excellent. Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) needs little rationalization, but is a top per dollar play on both sites in a matchup with Mike Foltynewicz. Nelson Cruz (SEA) is only $4,000 on DraftKings and gets a matchup with Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has an ERA over five and has struggled with the long ball this season, allowing 1.90 HR/9.
Both JD Martinez (ARI) and George Springer (HOU) represent great ways to get exposure to their respective offenses, but might be priced out of the cash game conversation on both sites. Nevertheless, they both hold excellent event upside and are great tournament options.
Ryan Braun (MIL) remains stupid cheap on both sites ($3,000 on FD in particular) and will have an exploitable home run matchup with John Lackey. Aaron Judge (NYY) now gets Martin Perez in Texas, and Mike Trout (LAA) gets the oft pushed back starter Mike Leake. On a slate with premier names in other places, Trout will come lower owned than he should be.
1) Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are by far the best stack in this slate. We’ll see if Goldy ends up playing, but even if he’s out the juicy matchup against Jordan Lyles (1.94 HR/9 allowed this season) in Chase Field will make this offense very appealing.
2) Houston Astros
3) Washington Nationals
4) Toronto Blue Jays
5) Miami Marlins
The Astros are in Oakland, and that’s about the only negative part of their context. They’re facing Jharel Cotton, a fly ball pitcher (47% FB rate) that has been tagged for a 1.89 HR/9 this season. The road tilt does give them nine guaranteed innings. The Blue Jays have led us down quite a bit this season, but they get another juicy matchup at home as they face Buck Farmer. The latter has been able to miss bats, but he’s surrendered a 17% hard minus soft hit rate and he’s fly ball oriented. The Blue Jays remain intriguing tournament targets.
6) Los Angeles Dodgers
7) New York Yankees
8) Cincinnati Reds
9) Texas Rangers
10) Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees are in the warmest spot in this slate as they’re on the road in Texas (mid to low 80s temps). Martin Perez can be annoying to pick on because he generates a decent amount of GBs, but he doesn’t miss bats. The Reds are on the road and it’s a big negative park shift, but their matchup against a meh pitcher (Seth Lugo) makes them appealing in tournaments at likely lower ownership. The Orioles have a bunch of hitters with positive deltas in their HHRs over the L15), and they’re on the road in a park that usually plays friendly for hitters. Mike Clevinger does miss bats, but he’s not much of a ground ball pitcher and he’s allowed an 18% hard minus soft hit rate. We’re not forgetting the Dodgers. German Marquez has been generating plenty of Ks of late, but the Dodgers have a deep offense and Marquez has been tagged for a 19% hard minus soft hit rate.