Welcome to September 9 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 9 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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September 9 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:53 Starting Pitcher
09:01 First Base
11:13 Second Base
13:11 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
September 9 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Chris Sale (BOS) tops a pretty good pitching slate. Despite the depth to it and Sale’s expensive price tag, you want to build around him in cash games. He’s by far the top projected scorer and value. Sale is having an absurd season with a 36.1 K%, which is a career high. The raise in K rate has remarkably not been accompanied by a raise in BB or HR rate. The Rays have been dropping in wRC+ over the second half of the season, now down to 22nd while maintaining the highest K rate in that split (25.8 K%).
Zack Godley (ARI) and Jeff Samardzija (SF) are industry wide mid-tier values. After a waning K rate over the second half of the season, Samardzija just backed up a CGSO with a 9 strikeout performance. We do still prefer Godley due to the negative park shift Samardzija faces and the dwindling K rate prior to his last start, but he’s viable in all formats in a soft matchup against the White Sox. Godley is in a tough park as well at home against Arizona, but his matchup is arguably even more favorable as the Padres rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP 25% K rate that is second highest in that split. Godley’s K rate has been consistent over the second half of the season and now sits at 26.1% overall.
With lots of pitcher’s parks in play and some cooler weather, it makes sense to pay up at pitching since you don’t need a ton of money for bats. Both Godley and Samardzija serve as good SP2s on DK.
There are a couple of other site-specific mid-tier starting pitcher values. On DK, Alex Wood (LAD) has seen his tag drop to $8,700. He’s a hefty -220 favorite with just a 3.2 IRTA against a Colorado team outside of Coors Field. He still lags behind Godley as a value given his second half drop off. On FD, Carlos Martinez (STL) is underpriced. He’s an excellent tournament pivot. His projection lags off because the Pirates are contact oriented, but Martinez’s own K rate and a relatively weak lineup against RHP still gives him meaningful upside.
There’s not much reason to deviate from the above handful of starting pitchers, even in tournaments. If you did need some cap relief for whatever reason, our model prefers Adam Conley (MIA) or Rafael Montero (NYM).
Buster Posey (SF) is the top projected scorer at the catcher position. You’ll see a bevy of Giants pop as favorable values in our projections tonight given the switch to an AL Park and a matchup vs. James Shields. Posey has affordable price tags around the industry and he’s our preferred cash game target at the position.
The alternatives are J.T. Realmuto (MIA) and Yasmani Grandal (LAD). Both of these options are priced appropriately on DK, making it an easier decision to go towards the Posey route. On FD, Realmuto is $700 cheaper than Posey. Those are the type of savings that could allow you to afford the big bat we’re pursuing in this slate. If you needed to drop down to a punt option on DK, Austin Hedges (SD) is $2,200 on DK and he’s in Chase Field.
The first base position is pretty tame for an 11 game slate. Joey Votto (CIN) does have a good Rafael Montero, who’s allowed a .371 wOBA to LHBs in his short career, but the park shift is a negative one. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) is the other expensive option at the position we like for upside, but he’s been nursing an elbow injury and has missed the last few games. There’s also Cody Bellinger (LAD) with the platoon edge, but Chad Bettis has some reverse splits and the price tag is pretty appropriate on Bellinger. We’d rather spend down at the position in cash games.
Hanley Ramirez (BOS), Danny Valencia (SEA), Ryder Jones (SF) and Eric Hosmer (KC) (on DK) are the salary relief options we’re pursuing in cash games. There’s not a name in this group that will get you overly excited about their skills or context, with Hanley probably being somewhat of an exception. He’s just too darn cheap on FD ($3,000) with a good lineup spot (been hitting cleanup of late) in Fenway Park. On DK, we might just grab the cheapest guy instead of going to the mid tier, and that’s where Valencia with the platoon edge and Jones facing James Shields with a sub $3,000 price tag enter the conversation.
Daniel Murphy (WSH) is the top projected scorer at second base. It’s a strong matchup against the volatile Mark Leiter Jr. and a bad Phillies bullpen, but his price tag won’t be approachable in cash games. The same can be said for Brian Dozier (MIN), who brings even more event upside than Murphy.
We’re saving money at the position with Joe Panik (SF) and Yoan Moncada (CHW). Where these two are priced similarly (FD), our lean goes to Panik and it’s pretty clear why. Panik isn’t a power hitter, but James Shields‘ inability to keep the ball in the park (2.17 HR/9 allowed this season) makes guys like Panik or even a terrible hitter like teammate Pablo Sandoval stand out a bit more. We have Moncada projected to hit second vs. Jeff Samardzija. The latter has pitched really well of late, but this is a negative park shift/league shift for him and Moncada is just $3,200 on DK.
Chris Taylor (LAD) is someone we like for tournaments on DK where he’s just $3,600. Taylor has cooled off a little bit of late, but he’s generated 19 HRs and swiped 15 bases this season. It’ feels like a light price tag given the event upside he’s flashed this season.
Jake Lamb (ARI) represents the top projected scorer at third base as he gets another strong matchup against a wide splits pitcher (Jhoulys Chacin) at home. Lamb is somehow just $3,000 on FD again, which is a silly price tag for him. Since 2015, Lamb has generated a .363 wOBA and .234 ISO vs. RHP.
The appropriate price tag on Lamb on DK puts other names in the cash game conversation like Justin Turner (LAD) and Pablo Sandoval (SF). Turner is clearly the better hitter of the two. He’s generated a .384 wOBA and .209 ISO vs. RHP since 2015 and the price tag on DK is soft ($3,700) relative to these skills. Sandoval has been dreadful this season and if possible, even more dreadful of late, but a matchup against James Shields in an AL Park gives us a little bit of hope at cheap price tags. Sandoval is $3,100 on DK, but on FD he’s minimum price and that might end up being the difference between being able to fit Stanton or not having a big spend.
Trea Turner (WSH) and Brandon Crawford (SF) represent the top projected scorers at the shortstop position, but only one of these options is affordable, and that would be Crawford. The latter is just $3,000 on FD and $3,400 on DK. These are bargain prices for a cleanup hitter facing James Shields in Guaranteed Rate Field.
If you needed a cheaper option on DK, Freddy Galvis (PHI) is $2,700 on DK and has a juicy matchup (Edwin Jackson). Jean Segura (SEA) is the alternative to Crawford on FD, but the challenge there is he trails Crawford by nearly a full Fantasy Point in terms of projection and he’s priced the same.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) is the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. The difference in projection here is massive as Stanton is projected to outscore Mike Trout (LAA) by nearly two Fantasy Points on FD and Trout is the best hitter in all of baseball in a matchup against Andrew Albers. Stanton has the platoon edge, which is the key for his projection. He’s generated a massive .435 wOBA and .399 ISO vs. LHP since 2015. Stanton is also in a plus matchup as Max Fried got tagged with a 5.92 ERA at AA this season.
If Stanton is your priority on the hitting side (and he probably should), you’re looking to spend down in your last two OF spots. Denard Span (SF), Nick Williams (PHI) (no idea why he’s sub $3,000 on DK once again), Hunter Pence (SF) (on DK), Mitch Haniger (SEA) ($2,600 on FD), Phillip Ervin (CIN) (full punt on FD if you need it; leadoff hitter with speed upside) fit the bill. Williams is a phenomenal bargain play on DK. He’ll have the platoon edge against Edwin Jackson, who has a massive discrepancy between his fluky results (3.62 ERA) and where his true talent level lies (ERA predictors well over five). If you were to use a full punt like Ervin on FD, it’s possible to have access to both Stanton and Justin Upton (LAA) in the mid tier. Upton will have the platoon edge as well, and he’s generated a .223 ISO VS. LHP since 2015.
1) Miami Marlins
2) Arizona Diamondbacks
3) San Francisco Giants
4) Washington Nationals
The Marlins have event upside given they have the league leader in HRs (Giancarlo Stanton) and one of the top stolen base threads (Dee Gordon). Additionally, JT Realmuto (dual threat ability at least relative to his peers) and Marcell Ozuna are threats against LHP. Throw in a big park shift and a weak southpaw (Fried has a ZIPS 5.26 projected ERA), and this is the top stack.
The Diamondbacks and Nationals have the highest IRTs on the slate and may end up the chalkier stacks from this tier.
The Giants get a massive positive park shift, a positive league shift, and a guaranteed nine innings on the road. That contextual evidence along with facing James Shields (6.10 FIP, 2.17 HR/9) and a horrible White Sox bullpen makes up for their lackluster offense.
5) Los Angeles Dodgers
6) Cincinnati Reds
On DK in particular, the price tags on the Dodgers are very affordable, making them a high upside stack to pair with pitching spends and possibly Stanton (or Bellinger over Stanton to be more contrarian).