So Many Possible Stacks This Tuesday for DFS Baseball
SMALL FORMAT TWEAK: As a reminder, the focus of the “Going All In” piece each week is finding the high priced DFS players that are worth your time. I’ll give you the best “hand” of four (used to be five) players that make it worthwhile for you to push in your chips and give you a fifth player/river card that’s cheap and helps use the high priced players (prices used from FantasyAces.com).
Don’t forget about playing for your chance to win $250k in the Fantasy Aces $250k World Baseball Championship live at Angels Stadium.
Max Scherzer ($8,250) – Today is a tough day for DFS baseball… in a good way. Both Scherzer and Chris Sale ($8,000) are terrific picks, but saving only $250 isn’t enough to take Sale over Scherzer. If it were more, they are so close that I would take the savings, but Scherzer is more heavily favored than Sale at -200 compared to -130. The Diamondbacks also have the eight highest K% against righties at 21.0 while striking out 24.4 percent over the last 30 days, plus Scherzer shut them down in Arizona earlier this year (7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K). I won’t complain if you go Sale, but I give the slight edge to Scherzer tonight. Masahiro Tanaka is a nice option to save money by the way. At $7,150 and facing the Red Sox, he’s a strong play with a -200 line.
Nelson Cruz ($5,900) – When it comes to lefties or righties for Cruz, it matters very little. However, when it comes to home or away, well, there is quite of a difference there. Cruz hits both righties and lefties well with only a slightly higher HR/FB% against lefties (29.6 to 25.9). The big change is when Cruz is out of Seattle, he has a massive 33.8 HR/FB% compared to just 15.9 at home with a .461 wOBA and 202 wRC+. The Mariners are in Colorado to boot, so you tell me, is there any reason not to have Cruz in the lineup? Heck, there are several Mariners you can use tonight.
Edwin Encarnacion ($5,550) – As with Cruz, Encarnacion doesn’t have dramatic lefty/righty splits. In fact, he’s actually hitting righties better with a higher SLG%, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Opposite of Cruz though, Encarnacion is actually better at home. He’s hitting for only a slightly higher average (.251 to .239) but his SLG% is 74 points higher (.491) and OPS 78 better (.836). Encarnacion’s wOBA and wRC+ are improved at home too, and Phil Hughes has always struggled with the long ball. This year, it’s worse than ever at 1.66 HR/9, so look for EE to tee off… as will many of the Blue Jays. Oh, he’s also hitting .350/.409/.525 in 40 ABs against Hughes (if you are in to that sort of thing).
Yasiel Puig ($4,950) – As with the Mariners and Blue Jays, the Dodgers make for a good stack going against Jerome Williams in Philly. Like Hughes, he allows a lot of homers, and his HR/9 is at 1.90 through 80.2 IP. You’re thinking Adrian Gonzalez is a lock. Not so fast. It’s actually Puig that you want, as Williams is worse against righties. Last year, Williams had a worse HR/FB% against righties, and when you coupled it with home starts, you had a 19.2 mark compared to 11.1 for lefties at home. This year, it’s even more dramatic. Williams is allowing a .607 SLG% and .414 wOBA against righties compared to .416/.354 for lefties and has a 26.3 HR/FB% for all righties this year, when it’s just 5.3 for lefties. On top of that, it’s 25.8 at home versus righties and 0.0 against lefties at home. Yep, no homers allowed at home to lefties yet. Don’t always assume L/R splits make sense.
River Card (cheap option to make lineup work)
Chris Young ($4,500) – It’s no secret by now; you start Young against lefties. He’s hitting .363 against them with a .470 wOBA and 206 wRC+ compared to .186, .246 and 46 against righties. Well, as highly touted as Henry Owens is for the Red Sox, he’s making his first start tonight in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are projected for the third highest run output today, and Young is a significant reason for that.