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SportsGrid Betting Model NFL Week 3 Picks

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SportsGrid Betting Model NFL Week 3 Picks
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SportsGrid Betting Model NFL Week 3 Picks

Welcome back for the second edition of the SportsGrid-DailyRoto Model Picks. Each week we will outline some of the favorite picks of the SportsGrid NFL Model, developed by Arturo Galetti. Last season was our first year using this model, and we got off to a successful start. The model, previously on DailyRoto and now exclusively on SportsGrid, finished sixth in last year’s FantasyPros betting accuracy contest. We had an overall record of 75-59, which included both picks against the spread and total selections.

In Week 2, the model picks covered in this space went 2-0 as Jacksonville covered the +9 easily while the 49ers-Bengals game racked up 58 total points, surpassing the 46 game total.. Overall, the picks we have submitted for the FantasyPros betting accuracy contest this season have gone 24-11 with 15 spread submissions (10-5) and eight plays on totals (4-4). Our threshold for submitting plays was anything rated 3-star or above.

Atlanta +2 at Indianapolis, Total 47

5-star pick: Atlanta

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In a game that features a large mismatch at the quarterback position (Matt Ryan versus Jacoby Brissett), we’re taking the extra couple of points. Ryan has a career ANY/A of 6.80 and is coming off his second-best season in that regard (7.71), buoyed by the addition of rookie WR Calvin Ridley. Entering his second season, Ridley has a 75% catch rate on 16 targets and is averaging 10.6 yards per target through two games. It’s obviously a small sample size, but Ridley is building on an impressive rookie campaign, and his presence takes some defensive pressure off of Julio Jones.

On the other side of the ball, Brissett has a career ANY/A of 5.33 (5.82 through two games this season). Quite often, the team that throws the ball more often and with more efficiency comes away victorious, and we’re projecting Atlanta to be that team this week.

Additionally, the Colts have a couple of meaningful injuries. As of writing this (Friday morning), the Colts starting running back, Marlon Mack, and star linebacker, Darius Leonard, were yet to practice. Mack is dealing with a calf injury while Leonard is in concussion protocol.

Detroit +6 at Philadelphia, Total 45.5

3-star pick: UNDER

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Last season, Detroit ranked 29th in Football Outsiders’ seconds per play in neutral game scripts. Through two games this season, they rank 21st. Philadelphia surprisingly ranked 30th in this metric last season, as well. The combination of two teams that played among the slowest in the league last season and some offensive injuries to the Philadelphia skill players make the UNDER 45.5 a strong play here.

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