Welcome back to The Fifth Quarter where I’ll be attempting to play Nostradamus for the rest of the season by taking a look at what the 2014 college football season has shown us. Last week’s edition started with a bang as Kevin White went off against Maryland and Tevin Coleman was the best running back anyone owned. If you owned Shaun Wilson from Duke then feel free to call me out below.
Heading into week four of the college football season here are six more things I’ve discovered.
Jeremy Langford is a prime fade candidate. Michigan State didn’t play this past weekend, but this extra time has given me a chance to look at the Spartans offense. I’ve been telling people Langford was in for a big decline in production and so far he’s shown in big time in the first two games. So far, his stat line is 37/143/1 against Jacksonville State and Oregon. Besides the fact that his production is down, there is one other big reason to not like him in DFS or in season long leagues: Connor Cook.
The rise of Connor Cook has meant a more relevant passing game and less carries for Langford. Cook threw the ball 47 times against Oregon. Yes, that might have been because they were down, but they were right in the game in the third quarter. Cook is going to get more throwing attempts and Langford’s value due to being force fed the rock is going away because of it.
Nelson Spruce is the real deal. I wanted to see Spruce against a conference opponent before making this claim and after seeing him play against Arizona State it’s official. He’s the real deal. For a team not known for passing, his 55 catches as a number two receiver last season was solid. Now, he already has 24 catches for 346 yards and 6 TDs. His consistency no matter the matchup has been remarkable. Spruce has produced at least seven catches, 97 yards, and two TDs in every game no matter the opponent.
He is the clear number one target for Sefo as he has 24 catches, the number two receiver has 21 and then there’s a huge drop to the third receiver who has eight. Before his week three game against Arizona State, he was sixth in the country with 25 targets. I can’t find his targets for week three, but you can bet they were in the double digits.
Demarcus Robinson for the win. I guess I should say for MY win, but it’s all the same. Robinson was on my late night squad the other night that took first in a small GPP and he was the biggest reason why. The guy went for 15 catches, 216 yards, and two TDs! I know Kentucky isn’t that great, but Driskel looked his way more than a 13 year old who just found his older brother’s Playboy stash. Robinson is a big play threat with catches of 71 and 50 yards in the first two games this season.
While I wouldn’t use Robinson unless under priced on sites against Alabama, he has many matchups that should be great for him. Florida’s last six games are going to be big matchups for him and I can already see myself using him in those last six games.
Kenny “Trill” Hill spreads the ball around too much. He just doesn’t target one Texas A&M receiver enough to make them worth usage in a big GPP. So far this season, eight different receivers have TDs and five are already in double digits in terms of catches. Malcome Kennedy has 24 catches compared to next best (13), but even then that’s because of a big 14-catch game against South Carolina. Technically Ricky Seals-Jones is the number one receiver on the depth chart, but he has just 13 catches. His best game this season is a 5/63/1 stat line and his worst stat line of the season is 3/45/1. While the floor for him seems to be decent, the upside hasn’t been there at all. This is the case for all TAMU receivers. Kenny Trill just does too good of a job of getting involved for me to use a receiver of his in a GPP.
LSU running backs can’t be trusted. For years now, LSU has been a team that spreads the ball around when it comes to their running backs no matter how talented their starter is. This is case in Baton Rouge in 2014 and because of it I’m avoiding. Four running backs have 20+ carries including two freshman (one I’ve never heard of). The three leaders in yardage are hovering around the same yards per carry (4.9 to 5.2) and all have at least two TDs, but no more than three.
It’s only three games into the season, but it’s obvious Les Miles is sharing the rock with at least three guys once the conference schedule begins. If you have to pick out just one to use then you’d have to lean Hilliard’s way as he did get 18 carries against Wisconsin and is the starter.
Arkansas is the newest team to join #TeamStackRBs. They have officially joined Auburn, Alabama, and Wisconsin to the possible RB stacks after their performance against Texas Tech. In favorable matchups, it’s something you really have to consider. With the combination of Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams, you really can’t nail one down consistently to be great. Instead, you choose both and they reward you as a whole very nicely.
If you stacked these two running backs against the Red Raiders, you would have picked up 357 yards and six TDs on the ground. Against Nichols State, this stack would have given you 274 yards and four TDs and that was on just 17 carries! So, when should you consider this running back stack? Consider them against UAB, Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Missouri.