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The 5th Quarter

The 5th Quarter
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With most teams having played two games by week three, we finally have a chance to sit and dissect what we’ve seen so far. New players are everywhere and schemes have changed, but two games gives us some clarity as to what we’re going to see in 2014. Here are six things/players/thoughts when it comes to the rest of this DFS CFB season.

1. Cameron Artis-Payne is Tre Mason. Besides the fact that these two players are very close in stature (Mason is two inches shorter and only five points lighter), they also were dynamic in this Auburn offense. CAP is averaging 6.9 yards per carry against some light competition while Tre Mason averaged 5.7 yards throughout the entire 2013 season. CAP is averaging 21 carries in two games while Mason averaged 23 carries in 14 teams.

So, why is this a good thing? Well, Tre Mason was a DFS beast last season ending with 1,800 yards and 23 rushing TDs. Going into the season, we all thought CAP would be the starter, but we couldn’t be too confident about it. Corey Grant is a great RB as well. It’s clear though, CAP is THE guy at Auburn and with Gus Malzahn running the offense that’s great news for people who use him.

2. Use QBs and WRs against Fresno State. Only two weeks into the season, we have found who to pick on in the passing game. Even if the competition has been stiff (USC and Utah), the Bulldogs have been brutal against the pass. They have given up almost 700 yards in two games. They have allowed ten TDs and yet to intercept a pass. This is somewhat surprising considering Fresno State gave up 26 TDs and had 14 INTs in 2013.

Looking at the rest of their schedule, teams like Nebraska, Boise State, Nevada, San Jose State, and Hawaii could provide great value in this matchup.

3. Use RBs against New Mexico. Another non-power five team, but another great matchup for DFS players. While UTEP and Arizona State have solid RBs, they aren’t 8.2 yards per carry and nine TDs good. New Mexico has given up a total of 753 yards on 92 carries so far this season. UTEPs RB, Aaron Jones, ran for a stat line of 22/237/3, while DJ Foster (ASU’s RB) ran for 19/216/1.  You could say that those numbers are going to be inflated compared to how they do against other competition.

Looking forward, Boise State and Jay Ajayi on November 8th is screaming at me as a great play as do a few others like Donnel Pumphrey (SDSU), Larry Rose III (NMSU), and Jacobi Owens (Air Force).

4. Pumps the brakes on Jameon Lewis. That’s right. When I predicted a huge game from Lewis in week two, I could not have been any further from the truth. In two games against very weak competition and with 96 points scored, Lewis has just five touches. He has four catches for 31 yards and one rush for 26 yards. The scary thing is that this offense is very spread out besides Dak Prescott and his dual threat ability. In the passing game, 11 players have a piece of the 37 total catches. The leading guy, De’Runnya Wilson, has just six catches.

And unfortunately, Lewis has a lot more to worry about football at this point in his life. His brother’s loss isn’t going to help him become a better player at least not right now.

5. Kevin White is a valuable 2014 DFS CFB asset. Just to clarify for those who have no idea who I’m talking about. I’m talking about Kevin White, the 6’3, 210lb West Virginia receiver. The same guy who has 19 catches and 244 yards in two games so far this season. His stat line of 9/143/1 against Alabama caught my attention, but it was the game against Towson that keeps my attention. He was the leading receiver against Towson with catches while the next highest was five.

While his numbers and size are nice, it’s the play of Clint Trickett which will keep White relevant. Trickett has thrown for 365 yards (against Alabama) and 348 yards (against Towson) and has yet to throw an INT so far this season. One last thing to like about White is that he goes up against four of the worst defenses in the NCAA this season. Four teams left on the WVU schedule are ranked 85th or worse in terms of points allowed in 2014.

6. Tevin Coleman will be the top RB at least four times this season. My ridiculous love for Coleman has yet to subside and with good reason. The guy opened the season up with 247 yards and two TDs against Indiana State. Sure, it was just the Sycamores, but that’s not why I love this play so much. Coleman ran the ball 23 times! He’s electric and Indiana is going to need him big time if Sudfeld is going to struggle like he did against Indiana State.

So, which four weeks will be games in which he explodes? Mark it down for Bowling Green, Missouri, Rutgers, and Purdue. All four games are prime matchups for him and unless his price is sky high you can almost guarantee I’ll be owning him.

Stay tuned for more CFB thoughts as the season progresses from yours truly.

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