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The Fifth Quarter

The Fifth Quarter
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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This week’s Fifth Quarter finally talks about an SEC team and I’m not proud of it. I pride myself in not discussing the greatest conference ever assembled, and it’s obvious I’m an SEC hater. If you saw my tweets yesterday then you realize this. And if you’re an LSU fan then you probably no longer follow me. With me finally talking SEC, we get to talk about Kyle Allen and how he now has a preferred receiver to throw to. I’m not excited about week 13, so let’s embrace these past weeks for as long as we can folks.

Josh Reynolds and Kyle Allen have a good thing going. When Allen struggled against ULM, the two weren’t on the same page (2/15/0), but in the last two games things are much different. Reynolds has four of the eight receiving TDs in Allen’s three starts and four of the seven in the last two games. He has 11 catches for 213 yards during those two great Allen games as well. Malcome Kennedy had a great game two weeks ago, but only had a stat line of 3/22/1 against Missouri. Reynolds has had plenty of big games at the beginning of the season with two multi-TD games and three games of six catches or more. The Aggies haven’t had ridiculous receiver numbers, but Reynolds ability to find the end zone (12 TDs) has made him very fantasy relevant.

Nelson Agholor is pretty good. And now, we’re starting to see the offense run through him and not Buck Allen. In the last four games, Agholor has put up six TD, 40 catches, and 674 yards. As we would say in the business, “That’s pretty good.” In those four games, Allen has rushed for over 100 yards three times, but has only scored once. USC is about to face the 51st (Notre Dame) and 64th (UCLA) run defense. Those two teams rank 75th and 97th in passing defense. To me, that looks like the edge will continue to go to Agholor. If you’re going to pay up for one of them in the finals weeks, do it for the wideout.

TCU’s injuries have brought about new faces. With the injuries to Deante’ Gray, Josh Doctson, and BJ Catalon, TCU has had to play new guys and has struggled a little bit. While they won nicely against Kansas State, they struggled against the worse opponent, Kansas. While Doctson has been playing, he has been bad recording just five catches for 91 yards. Deante’ Gray on the other hand hasn’t been playing and we have seen David Porter (13/151/1 in last tow games) and Ty Slanina (6/95/1 vs Kansas) step in nicely for them. Aaron Green though has been the big time fill in for TCU with Catalon being hurt. He has rushed 37 times for 299 yards and three TDs. Not only has he played very well, but TCU has run it more with him at RB.

Texas Tech’s receiver situation is the worst. Not only has Davis Webb been banged up all season long, but his replacement has been a freshman (Mahomes). In the last two games, no receiver has caught more than six passes in a game. Not one receiver has gone for 100+ yards either. Against Oklahoma, 11 different receivers caught a pass. Against Texas, ten different guys caught a pass. The passes are being spread out as always, but with lower numbers in general it’s tough to reach 100+ receiving yards. The last time that happened was against West Virginia five games ago (Lauderdale 3/112/2). The consistency isn’t there while the upside certainly isn’t either.

Jonathan Gray is the more impressive Texas running back. Going into the season both Gray and Malcolm Brown were quality backs, but now it feels like just Gray is one. Gray has five TDs in the last three games and 255 yards in the last three games. While those kinds of numbers aren’t ideal for fantasy, but if he’s at the right price he could be great value. What’s causing this is his lack of carries. He has only carried it 42 times in those three games. Brown has been just as good in the last three, but is trending downwards. His rushing totals have gone from 116 to 90 to 31 on 57 total carries. Brown also has only two rushing TDs in those three games. If Gray and Brown are the same price then it’s a tough pick due to Brown’s usage, but if Gray is significantly cheaper then I see a real reason to go with him over Brown.

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