UFC 166: VELASQUEZ VS. DOS SANTOS III
Date: October 19, 2013
Location: Houston, Texas
Venue: Toyota Center
Broadcast: PPV, FOX Sports 1, Facebook
MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
I believe this is about an even of a fight as one can be. The first fight was won by JDS with a perfectly timed overhand right landing behind Cain’s ear, however we later found out that Cain was dealing with an injured shoulder and a banged up knee heading into the fight. The second fight seen Cain bully JDS all around the cage for 25 minutes however we again found out some behind the scenes info that JDS was dealing with kidney issues and a divorce of his 10 year marriage in the days leading up to the 2nd fight with Cain.
I truly think this is anyone’s fight but for me it comes down to the fact that JDS never really recovered from the shot Cain landed on him in the 1st round of their UFC 155 contest. JDS fought for the next ~23 minutes in a daze it seemed. JDS still fought off 22 takedowns during that time and remained conscious. I believe that JDS will come in with improved takedown defense and a better game plan to take a victory in this fight.
JDS VIA TKO ROUND 2
Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson
Nelson has a puncher’s chance and a puncher’s chance only in this fight. Cormier is an olympic level wrestler and will have no problem getting Nelson to his back whenever he chooses. There has been a lot made of Nelson being a BJJ black belt in the past but he is far more effective on the top, once Cormier gets Nelson to his back he will be able to dominate him with ground and pound and Nelson will find it very difficult to get back to his feet. I think that by the 3rd round Nelson will be exhausted and Cormier will be able to get the stoppage.
Cormier via TKO round 3
Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez
Sanchez will try to come out and keep the pressure on Gil from the start of this fight. However, Gilbert should hold the advantage in the speed aspect of this fight and should use it to strike to set up takedowns and grind out a decision victory here.
MELENDEZ VIA DEC
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan
Jordan needs to keep this fight standing and away from the clinch because with his huge advantage in the striking aspect of the fight it will be a short night if he does so. If Gonzaga can get the fight to the ground he will have a good chance to finish the fight. I think Greg Jackson has put this exact notion in Jordan’s head and he will keep his distance just long enough to pick his spot to earn a TKO late in round 1.
JORDAN VIA TKO ROUND 1
John Dodson vs. Darrell Montague
This is a very intriguing match up because Dodson is a former title contender and has amassed himself a reputation as being a top 125lb’r within the ranks of the UFC whereas Montague has the same reputation outside of the UFC. This fight should be a very exciting standup war in which Montague could very well pull an upset, however I think that Dodson will use his speed to pull of a very close decision.
DODSON VIA DEC
PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET)
Tim Boetsch vs. C.B. Dollaway
Boetsch has looked really bad in his past 2 fights and even though I don’t think Dollaway is a great fighter I can see him wearing down Boetsch and continuously dragging him down to the ground to earn a decision victory.
DOLLAWAY VIA DEC
Hector Lombard vs. Nate Marquardt
This fight heavily depends on how Lombard’s cut down to 170lbs goes. If it goes well he will be able to pick Marquardt apart on his feet en route to a decision victory, if he struggle to get to the 170lb mark Lombard could fade late and allow Marquardt to either finish him or earn a decision. I tend to side with the 1st of these situations.
LOMBARD VIA DEC
Jessica Eye vs. Sarah Kaufman
Eye is a good fighter that has shown she can compete with the upper echelon of talent in the women’s division, however in this fight she faces an uphill challenge. Eye is a natural 125lb fighter who is coming up to the 135lb division to face Kaufman. Kaufman is not the type of fighter that you want to step up in weight to fight as she is a heavy hitter that doesn’t mind taking damage to give it.
KAUFMAN VIA TKO ROUND 3
K.J. Noons vs. George Sotiropoulos
For Noons to win this fight all he has to do is stop the sub-par takedown attempts from Sotitopoulos. Once he does that Noons will be able to pick apart the weak chin of Sotitopoulos and finish this fight in the 1st round.
NOONS VIA TKO ROUND 1
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 6 p.m. ET)
Adlan Amagov vs. T.J. Waldburger
Another Grappler vs Striker match, Waldburger will be trying to get this fight to the ground to avoid the deadly striking of Amagov. If Waldburger can get it to the ground he will waste no time going for submissions, but that task will be easier said than done as Amagov has shown he can thwart off takedowns and use his combinations to take an opponent off his game. This is a step up in competition for Amagov but I feel its a task he is more than ready for as he earns a decision victory.
AMAGOV VIA DEC
Tony Ferguson vs. Mike Rio
Rio’s game plan will be to get this fight to the ground but has ran into trouble in the past doing so vs. stronger fighter. Ferguson appears to be just that and should be able to use his strength to keep the fight standing where he holds a clear advantage.
FERGUSON VIA TKO ROUND 2
Andre Fili vs. Jeremy Larsen
Larsen is a decent fighter but faces a really tough test in the Team Alpha Male prospect Andre Fili. Fili is a good prospect that is well versed in stand up and on the mat. I look for him to dictate the pace of the fight and either score a late TKO or grind out a decision.
FILI BY DEC
Kyogi Horiguchi vs. Dustin Pague
Pague has lost 4 of his last 5 fights vs. mid-level at best competition. Still somehow he takes a step up in competition to face UFC newcomer and former Shooto champion Kyogi Horiguchi. I look for Pague to try to get this fight to the ground early and often but will be unsuccessful in doing so. While on the feet Horiguchi will pick Pague apart and knock him out late in round 1.
HORIGUCHI VIA TKO ROUND 1
#1- PICK 3/5
#2- PICK 3/5
PICK 5/5- Play both because I think the JDS/Cain fight is a 50/50 fight