UFC 188 MMA DFS picks
UFC 188 takes place in Ciudad de Mexico, and it will be a fantastic card. Only a handful of the bouts are projected as mismatches (if you trust Vegas and their betting lines) including the main event between Cain Velasquez (-500) and Fabricio Werdum. The card also features Henry Cejudo back in action in a flyweight matchup against Chico Camus, a bout which could end up the shortest of the night. The most difficult match to handicap might be the Gilbert Melendez–Eddie Alvarez lightweight tussle, one which could be a coin flip.
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Henry Cejudo ($5,200 vs. Chico Camus): Cejudo is an overwhelming favorite (-1200) as he puts his unblemished 8-0 record on the line. Cejudo has been pushed hard in his past four bouts, going the distance in each with wins by unanimous decision. However, it would be a shock if this one ended in similar fashion as Camus has dropped two of his past four matches. Cejudo said leading up to this fight that he ate some bad swordfish and is finally starting to recover, so strength and stamina might be a slight question. He’ll be ready, and there is too much at stake. Cejudo is angling for a title shot and he should steamroll Camus before the second round ends.
Kelvin Gastelum ($5,100 vs. Nate Marquardt): Gastelum strolled into UFC 183 with a 10-0 record and he suffered a personal setback with a split decision loss to Tyron Woodley. It won’t happen again. Sure, Nate Marquardt has been around the block, and his experience poses a threat. But Gastelum is a hard puncher combined with a great ground game, so expect this to be lights out for Marquardt before Gastelum breaks much of a sweat.
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Gilbert Melendez ($4,800 vs. Eddie Alvarez): Melendez has lost two of his past three bouts, and at 33 ‘El Nino’ is at a crossroads. A win and he is back in the game. A loss and his career could be over before it really has taken off. Truth be told, though, losses to Anthony Pettis and Benson Henderson is really nothing to be ashamed about. Alvarez has managed setbacks in two of his past five, and he doesn’t have a ton of UFC experience. In his debut at UFC 178 he lost a unanimous decision to Donald Cerrone, so this is a coin-flip situation. Melendez is a great value and he has more experience. If he wins it will be via knockout, something Alvarez needs to be very careful to avoid.
Cathal Pendred ($4,900 vs. Augusto Montano): Pendred actually comes into this bout as a short dog, but the Irishman has won seven straight bouts and he is 10-0-1 in the past 11. Pendred is a balanced fighter who can get it done upright or on the ground. That’s a dangerous combination. If he is successful against Montano, and in front of Montano’s countrymen, he will need to avoid the quick hitter. Montano has won five of his past six by KO/TKO, and the other bout Aug. 10, 2013 was a submission by punches against Jason Clayton. Montano doesn’t have a ton of experience on the big stage, though, and that’s where Pendred’s experience comes in. Look for this one to go the distance with Pendred pulling out a decision win.
Yair Rodriguez ($4,300 vs. Charles Rosa): Rodriguez is a tremendous sleeper, and he will help your bottom line, too. He doesn’t have a ton of experience, winning four of his five bouts, but he is worth keeping an eye on. In his debut at UFC 180 he stopped Leonardo Morales by unanimous decision. He could have similar results if he can avoid letting Rosa get him on the ground. Rosa is a strong grappler, and the last thing Rodriguez wants is to be on the ground against him. Seven of Rosa’s 10 wins have come via submission, so if Rodriguez can remain upright he can win.