UFC 191 MMA DFS picks
It’s back to the MGM Grand in Las Vegas for UFC 191, and what an action-packed event this will be. The card is littered with exciting matchups, so get ready for a challenging event from a DFS perspective, but a very entertaining event to make you stop thinking about college football for at least a couple of hours.
Demetrious Johnson will take on John Dodson in the main event, and he is heavily favored to retain his flyweight belt in a rematch. In the heavyweight division, the resurgent Frank Mir will take on Andrei Arlovski in a much-anticipated co-main event. Mir has looked really good lately, while Anthony Johnson looks to stay hot against once-beaten Jimi Manuwa in light heavyweight action. Even the bantamweight battle between Francisco Rivera and John Lineker should be exciting, as will be the Paul Felder–Ross Pearson tussle. And don’t think Alex Chambers and Paige VanZant are just two pretty faces. Well, they are, although Chambers’ face might not be so pretty afterwards against a heavily-favored VanZant.
The mix of evenly matched bouts and potentially lopsided matches makes it very difficult to set a DFS lineup this weekend. However, we’ll help you plow through and find the best combination to unlock that money and stay in the black!
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(Kountermove.com salaries in parentheses) (all times ET).
Paul Felder ($5,200 vs. Ross Pearson): Felder lost in his last bout July 25, 2015 to Edson Barboza at UFC on FOX 16 by unanimous decision, his first setback in 11 professional fights. It will be interesting to see how ‘The Irish Dragon’ bounces back against Pearson, who might be one of the top boxers at this weight class. However, Felder is a big-time striker with size and power, and he has the power kicks to finish off Pearson sooner rather than later. Felder is installed as a heavy favorite for this bout by Vegas, and the thinking is that we’ll see a brawl in the first round before Felder is able to knock him out in Round 2. Either way Felder should make it a fruitful night for DFS players with a win in eight or nine minutes.
Demetrious Johnson ($5,800 vs. John Dodson): ‘Mighty Mouse’ can do a little bit of everything, and that’s what makes his fights so entertaining and why DFS players love him, too. He has managed 55 takedowns in his career, and he is a strike machine. He has landed 1,244 strikes over his career, including plenty in a unanimous decision win against Dodson in the first match on UFC on FOX 6 back on Jan. 26, 2013.
While Johnson has been good throughout his entire career, he has gotten better with time, and lately, he has chopped off plenty of time from his matches. His last two matches have come via submission wins, and only one of his previous five have gone to the card. Dodson is a decent fighter and grappler, and he could make this more difficult for Johnson than DFS owners want. However, look for this one to be over by Round 3 with another submission win, as Mighty Mouse isn’t the same fighter he was in 2013.
PLENTY OF UPSIDE
Jessica Andrade ($4,700 vs. Raquel Pennington): Andrade ranks third among all UFC fighters with 5.91 strikes landed per minute during her career, and that’s important in a match against Pennington. She is heavily favored to win this bout, and if she can roll up the significant strikes that’s obviously more DFS points. Over her career she is 55.3 percent in significant strike accuracy, too, so she doesn’t tire herself out flailing around hoping to land punches. When they’re thrown, more often than not they land. If she wins in a knockout, great. If it goes to the judges, those strikes are still going to pile up. Either way, she is a sound pick at a mid-level price.
John Lineker ($4,800 vs. Francisco Rivera): Lineker bumps up in weight class from flyweight to bantamweight, as he no longer wants to battle the scale trying to make weight. Plus, ‘Hands of Stone’ feels bumping up will add to his power and strength. Lineker is a hard puncher who isn’t afraid to go toe-to-toe with anyone, and he exhibits tremendous quickness, too. Rivera will have to be on his toes for those quick kicks to the ribs which can wear down a fighter. And they come really quick from Lineker, too. Don’t be put off by the six-inch height advantage of Rivera. Lineker will get in close and work him over with hard punches, swift kicks and that devastating left hook if he can land it.
Frank Mir ($4,600 vs. Andrei Arlovski): It’s hard to call Mir a deep sleeper, and he doesn’t really fit the bill. However, his DFS salary is so low and he is a decisive underdog for his bout with Arlovski that it does kinda fit. After four straight losses from May 26, 2012 to Feb. 1, 2014, many had written Mir off. But he has come back with a vengeance, rattling off a pair of first-round KO/TKO’s, including an emotional win over Todd Duffee July 15.
It has been an amazing transformation for Mir, who appeared to be losing a step in the quickness department in terms of his takedowns, he has worked on quickness with his hands and developed an impressive skillset in terms of boxing. If he can go toe-to-toe with Arlovski and do the things he did against Duffee and Antonio Silva, it would be an amazing story. As impressive as he has looked in his previous two bouts, don’t count him out. Plus, you’ll need a lower priced option if you want to squeeze in a stud or two up top, and Mir has way better chance of winning than any of the others in this price range.