UFC Fight Night 69 MMA DFS picks
After an exciting – and unpredictable UFC 188 – it’s time to move on to UFC Fight Night 69 at O2 World Arena in Berlin, Germany. The main event will feature Jesssica Penne trying to slow down Joanna Jedrzejczyk, a strawweight fighter who burst onto the scene with a shocking KO/TKO win over Carla Esparza at UFC 185 back in mid-March.
The Penne-Jedrzejczyk battle isn’t the only attractive match on the card, however, as we also have Dennis Siver in action against Tatsuya Kawajiri in a featherweight bout as the co-main event, as well as Peter Sobotta taking on Steven Kennedy in welterweight action. In a lightweight battle, Mairbeck Taisumov tries to deal Alan Patrick his first career loss, too. It should be an action-packed card with few lopsided bouts.
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(Kountermove.com salaries in parentheses) (all times ET).
Scott Askham ($5,300 vs. Antonio dos Santos): Askham is one of the heavy favorites you’re going to want to build your roster around Saturday. The southpaw is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Magnus Cedenblad at UFC Fight Night 53 in early October, and he is chomping at the bit to get back in the octagon after his first career defeat.
That Cedenblad match wasn’t without highlights, as he had a huge front kick to drop his opponent, showing fans why he was one of the Top 5 unsigned prospects at this time last year. Seven of his 12 career victories have come via KO/TKO, with only two via submission. Both fighters are searching for their first UFC victory. The difference here is a five-inch height advantage for Askham and he has great skills in the clinch. This one might go the distance and give a bit of a scare, but Askham should do enough technically to earn the win and plenty of Fantasy points along the way.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($5,500 vs. Jessica Penne): Normally I do not take the heaviest favorite, and most expensive option on the board, but Jedrzejczyk was so impressive in her battle against Esparza at UFC 185 that you cannot pass this chance. She is an overwhelming favorite (-700) according to the wise guys, and she’ll be back home in Europe. Penne isn’t a big-time wrestler, and Jedrzejczyk is considered light years ahead of Penne in hand speed and power, as well as technical skill. If this doesn’t end in a knockout before the end of the third round it would be a shocker.
PLENTY OF UPSIDE
Peter Sobotta ($4,700 vs. Steve Kennedy): Sobotta is a great value at this price level, as he is unbeaten in seven straight events since Nov. 2010. The German southpaw won his UFC return over Pawel Pawlak at UFC Fight Night 41 in May 2014, and before that he had five straight first-round rear-naked choke wins in the first round. Kennedy hasn’t faced this type of dominant ground game or strong opponent in his career, so don’t look at his career record as a reason to worry about Sobotta. This bout will be a decisive win for Sobotta, especially if he can get the Aussie onto the mat early and often.
Makwan Amirkhani ($4,400 vs. Masio Fullen): Looking at the Fantasy salaries, and checking out the Vegas lines, something doesn’t add up. Amirkhani has raced out to huge favorite status (-275), but the DFS salaries would have you thinking otherwise. ‘Mr. Finland’ made his UFC debut at UFC on FOX Jan. 24 and smashed Andy Ogle, needing just eight seconds to record a KO/TKO. The Mexican Fullen, nicknamed ‘Lobo’, was impressive in his UFC debut on the Rousey-Zingano card, earning a split decision win over Alex Torres. This bout will last a little longer for Amirkhani, but the result will be the same. He will walk away with a victory thanks to his quick hands and power.
Mairbeck Taisumov ($4,700 vs. Alan Patrick): The Austrian Taisumov is a slight favorite over the Brazilian Patrick, who is back after a 16-month hiatus following a jaw injury. I think the rust will be the difference in this one, and is probably the reason Taisumov is favored over the unbeaten (12-0) Patrick. Taisumov has flashed quick hands in his past two bouts, dumping Marcin Bandel at UFC Fight Night 53 in just 1:01, and taking care of Anthony Christodoulou at UFC on FOX Jan. 24 in two rounds. In 23 career wins, Taisumov has won 12 by TKO/KO and nine by submission. In other words, don’t look for this one to go the distance.