UFC Fight Night 73 MMA DFS picks
The mixed martial arts events will be fewer and further between in the month of August and into football season. UFC Fight Night 73 has a solid card with some tremendous DFS values.
This is a great opportunity to make a few dollars, especially if you like to pick your fighters in conjunction with Vegas lines. The way the bettors are going can be telling. Favorites won nine of the 13 fights on the UFC 190 card, and they took seven of the 12 bouts at UFC on FOX 16. At UFC Fight Night 69, favorites cashed in seven of the 11 bouts. In any event, you get the picture. Favorites are that way for a reason – they win fairly regularly. Taking an occasional underdog, especially in a matchup where the difference is considered slight, is prudent. But taking heavy underdogs is just not good business, whether it is betting or DFS.
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(Kountermove.com salaries in parentheses) (all times ET).
Ray Borg ($5,400 vs. Geane Herrera): Borg has bounced back with a pair of victories since being dropped by Dustin Ortiz at UFC on FOX 11. In fact, his past two wins have come by submission, including stopping Chris Kelades by kimura back on Valentine’s Day, and he had a Round 1 rear-naked choke against Shane Howell at UFC Fight Night 44. He is still considered a prospect, and this one is considered a bit of a softball over the center of the plate. Borg has the better grappling game, and he is considered a better striker. For this kind of salary DFS owners will likely want a quick finish, and it could go on longer than you want. However, expect Borg to get the submission win and a healthy amount of takedowns and submission attempts.
Scott Holtzman ($5,300 vs. Anthony Christodoulou): Holtzman is a power puncher who is making his UFC debut. He enters with a 7-0 career record, with three wins coming by knockout and another by submission. He is a quality striker who is a great athlete, and ‘Hot Sauce’ is also viewed as the stronger fighter who should overpower Christodolou. A knockout would not be surprising, and in fact, it is expected sooner rather than later. At this DFS price, it better happen if he is to meet salary expectations.
PLENTY OF UPSIDE
Derek Brunson ($4,900 vs. Sam Alvey): Brunson comes in with a pair of wins, including a KO/TKO against Ed Herman in just 36 seconds at UFC 183. He has wins in four of the past five, and his only loss was against up-and-comer Yoel Romero at UFC Fight Night 35, certainly a result that he cannot be ashamed about. Brunson (-390) is a heavy favorite because he is a strong wrestler as well as a hard puncher who can break through with lightning quick kicking strikes to keep Alvey off balance. Brunson has the better all-around skillset, especially in the ground game. A submission win in Round 3 is expected.
Chris Camozzi ($4,700 vs. Tom Watson): Camozzi will be slightly favored (-140) over Watson, a fighter who has won just twice in the past six bouts. Camozzi should continue to add to his misery, as he is a solid striker who is also a decent grappler with an above-average ground game. If Camozzi can avoid devastating kicks from Watson, he’ll be able to do enough to win by decision. If Camozzi can get Watson on the ground and pound him with elbows, he could end this one early on the ground. Either way, look to Camozzi for a DFS win at a cut-rate price.
Jonathan Wilson ($4,600 vs. Chris Dempsey): Wilson enters with a 6-0 record, as the light heavyweight has dominated the opposition. Three of his past four wins, all in the Gladiator Challenge, have come via TKO/KO. He is a power puncher with no experience. Dempsey is viewed simply as mediocre, with no special skills that stand out. You can expect this fight to go to the judges, with Wilson coming through by unanimous decision thanks to better punching and more takedowns.