UFC Fight Night 78 MMA DFS Picks
The UFC rolls into Monterrey, Mexico for UFC Fight Night 78, with the main event featuring Neil Magny and Kelvin Gastelum in a welterweight bout.
The card isn’t as entertaining as UFC 193, and certainly won’t be as memorable as the Ronda Rousey upset loss in Australia. However the flyweight battle between Jussier Formiga and Henry Cejudo will be a battle worth watching, the featherweight tussle between Diego Sanchez and Ricardo Lamas is certain to be a good scrap, and the bantamweight tilt featuring Erik Perez and Taylor Lapilus has promise.
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Henry Cejudo ($5,500 vs. Jussier Formiga): ‘The Messenger’ is the most complete fighter on Saturday’s card, and he is a top-notch wrestler who will end this bout in Round 1 if he can get Formiga on the ground early. If he keeps Formiga upright he can tenderize the lesser fighter against the fence with a series of strong knees and sweeping kicks. Formiga doesn’t have the quickness to stay with Cejudo, and the former jiu jitsu black belt does not have nearly the same power behind his strikes as Cejudo. This will be the biggest mismatch on the board.
Enrique Marin ($5,400 vs. Erick Montano): Marin is heavily favored (-180) to win this bout against Montano, as both are making their UFC debuts. While the Mexican Montano has won each of his past four fights by submission, with the past three coming via rear naked chokes in the first round, the step up in competition will be difficult. Marin is strong on his feet, and he is a decent grappler, too. He has submitted his past four opponents, and he has won six straight bouts dating back to Sept. 20, 2011. He has shown very few chinks in the armor, and has way more experience and a better skillset. It might not end in the first round, but look for this one to end via submission for Marin before the end of Round 2.
PLENTY OF UPSIDE
Bartosz Fabinski ($4,700 vs. Horacio Gutierrez): Fabinski won his UFC debut April 11 in a unanimous decision against Garreth McLellan, and he hasn’t tasted defeat since March 1, 2014 at Pro MMA Challenge 1. ‘The Butcher’ (-200) is a heavy favorite against Urbina, an American who is just 6-5-1 over his past 12 bouts since April 19, 2008. There isn’t much to like about Urbina, who seems lost if the action is taken to the mat. That’s terrible news, as Fabinski will take you down early and often. He isn’t great on defense, and is susceptible to the knockout.
Vernon Ramos ($4,800 vs. Alvaro Herrera): The Panamanian Ramos doesn’t have a top of history, but he has forced his only two professional opponents to tap out before the middle of the second round. Herrera represents a huge step up in competition, but Ramos the tools to handle himself with aplomb. Neither of these guys are tremendously experienced, but you have to like Ramos if this turns into a wrestling match.
Scott Jorgensen ($4,500 vs. Alejandro Perez): You’ll need a cheap fifth fighter with some upside and Jorgensen definitely fits the bill. He is actually a slight favorite (-135) in his bout with Perez, as the latter isn’t a strong wrestler and he can be easily defeated with a quick shot to his jaw. Jorgensen has adequate hands, and he is an above-average grappler. Experience is not a problem, but wins have been a problem for Jorgensen lately. ‘Young Guns’ has dropped five of his past six bouts, and seven of his past nine. The 33-year-old is at a crossroads, and needs a win badly or his career on the big stage could be over. Expect Jorgensen to come through in a desperation fight.