UFC on FOX 16 MMA DFS picks
It’s time for the much anticipated bantamweight rematch between TJ Dillashaw and Renan Barao from United Center Saturday night. The best part for mixed martial arts fans is that not only is this card chock full of great fights, but the broadcast will be free.
Not only is the main event, Dillashaw-Barao 2, a great bout, but the women’s bantamweight battle between Miesha Tate and Jessica Eye should be very entertaining, too. Two veterans, Joe Lauzon and Takanori Gomi will do battle, and lightweight Daron Cruickshank is back to face James Krause in what should be a solid fight. Toss in what should be a very even welterweight tussle between Ben Saunders and Kenny Robertson, and we’re in for a real treat Saturday. Still, there are plenty of DFS values to be had, and there is a lot of money on the table for your taking. Let’s get to it!
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(Kountermove.com salaries in parentheses) (all times ET).
Zak Cummings ($5,200 vs. Dominique Steele): Cummings was dumped last time out against Gunnar Nelson at UFC Fight Night 46, succumbing after a rear-naked choke in the second round. That was a rarity, as he hasn’t lost by submission in nearly six years. Don’t expect it to happen again. Steele steps in for the injured Antonio Braga Neto, getting just three weeks to prepare for Cummings. It won’t be pretty, especially if Cummings can get him down on the ground early. This bout could end quicker than any on the card, making DFS players smile from ear to ear.
Joe Lauzon ($5,500 vs. Takanori Gomi): ‘J-Lau’ looks to bounce back after a setback to Al Iaquinta at UFC 183, a shocking second round KO/TKO. Despite the fact he is the second largest favorite on the card (-340) according to Vegas, Lauzon is not the best on defense and he can make DFS players sweat if he gets off to a sluggish start and is stunned early. Still, Gomi is years past his heyday, and Lauzon’s grappling will make the difference in this one. Lauzon is strong on the ground, and if he gets Gomi down early and often it will be lights out. Look for a Round 2 submission victory for J-Lau.
PLENTY OF UPSIDE
Daron Cruickshank ($5,300 vs. James Krause): Cruickshank enters this bout with a severe height disadvantage, standing six inches shorter than Krause. However, the height disadvantage might actually pay dividends in the ground game, especially as the more powerful Cruickshank has more room to maneuver against the fence. Cruickshank looks to rebound after a couple of disappointing bouts, including a rear-naked choke at the hands of budding star Beneil Dariush at UFC 185, and an injury against KJ Noons at TUF 20. This bout is a crossrounds for the ‘Detroit Superstar’, as he can ill-afford another loss. He is a good striker, and if he gets Krause on the ground he is an adequate wrestler. Krause has dropped three of his past four bouts, and while this one could very well go to the card, look for Cruickshank to battle back with a win and solid amount of DFS points.
Danny Castillo ($4,300 vs. Jim Miller): Castillo was to face Rustam Khabilov, but visa issues forced Khabilov out so Castillo gets a crack at Jim Miller instead. Miller is on a two-bout losing streak, and so is Castillo. Something’s gotta give. Castillo has had more time to prepare, and he has slightly more power behind his punches and he is an aggressive grappler. His overall skill set is slightly better than Miller, making Castillo a great DFS value at this price level.
Paul Felder ($4,600 vs. Edson Barboza): Felder steps in for the injured Myles Jury, putting his unblemished record on the line. He made his debut at UFC Fight Night 54 with a split-decision win against Jason Saggo, and followed that up with a second-round KO/TKO against Danny Castillo at UFC 182. Felder is an animal with a non-stop motor, and that’s bad news for Barboza. Felder’s footwork is tremendous, and he has lightning-quick leg kicks which will keep Barboza off balance. Felder will also tenderize his opponent with brutal knees. This one could go to the card, but you’ll get a solid value in Felder, who is 10-0 as a professional.