Vegas Odds and DFS QBs
As you’ve seen through the first two Weekly Analysis pieces, I try to incorporate Vegas Odds in how I approach my DFS selections. It’s pretty simple really: use point totals to target players in higher expected scoring games and use point spreads to try and project game flow. Like with most pieces of information, the Vegas odds are a complementary tool, not a driving force. Player skill, the skill of the opposing defense, injuries and countless other things must be used in conjunction with Vegas odds. It’s not a tool meant to be used on its own.
Rather than accepting Vegas Odds as just another piece of the puzzle, though, I want to take a deeper look at how actionable this information is. Am I weighing this information properly in my decision making? Am I misusing this information? Are there better ways to tie this information together with other contextual factors (using the point spreads with the totals, not as stand alones; using that information with strength of defense data)?