Week 10 CFL DFS Late Swap Strategy
Using the late swap feature on DraftKings is pretty important to long-term success in DFS. Sometimes there are changes to starting lineups after games start for the week, and if you aren’t paying attention and adjusting your lineups you will miss out. This is made dreadfully apparent in CFL contests as starting lineups and scratches are only released 24 hours before kickoff in each game. This means some starting lineups won’t be available for as much as three days after the contests start. This week is no different as there have been a few surprises since our original rankings article came out on Wednesday. Now none of these plays are pretty, but they could be the difference between cashing or not. Let’s see what our Week 10 paper bag brigade has to offer us:
OUT: B.J. Cunningham WR – Montreal, $5000 – Cunningham seemed to have an inside track to being the value WR of the week on DraftKings, and then Tyrell Sutton (RB – MTL, $7200) returned to the lineup, and then Kenny Stafford (WR – MTL, $4500) came back, and then Duron Carter wound up in the starting lineup despite battling an infection all week and avoiding suspension like he’s Carmen Sandiego. Don’t stick with Cunningham like Homer Simpson chasing his BBQ pig yelling, “It’s still good, it’s still good!” The value is gone man. Just let him go. There are other value plays to be had.
IN: Nik Lewis WR – Montreal, $5900 – Nik Lewis is the anti-David Boston. He is a living breathing inverse relationship: as his weight has gone up, his yards per catch have gone down. Every. Single. Year. He has come a long way since his first season when he averaged 14.5 yards per catch, and now averages 10.1. If you are watching your first Allouettes game this weekend, you may at first wonder why there is an offensive tackle catching passes. You’ll then realize #8 is indeed a slotback and that it’s just Nik Lewis. In Canada, Fat Nik Lewis is a national treasure. His role in the offence is well defined – averaging nearly 8 targets a game and 65 yards. In games in which Duron Carter has not been at full strength or ejected, both of which are real possibilities, he has turned into Kevin Glenn’s receiver of choice. Add to that a top 10 Target Efficiency Score of 10.99 and you’ve got yourself a great value option.
OUT: Rob Bagg WR – Saskatchewan, $4600 – Rob Bagg is a surprise scratch this week from the Roughriders lineup. Changes in the receiving core in Regina have Bagg out, John Chiles released, and Ryan Lankford to the bench. Edmonton has tightened up their defensive backfield problems from earlier in the season, but the Riders run a higher percentage of passing plays than anyone in the league. There will be some value to be found here with so many low priced receivers on their roster.
IN: Nic Demski WR – Saskatchewan, $3600 – Nic Demski gets a shot this week at being a starting slot receiver with the Roughriders. He also gets kick return duties, so he has a nice floor for a value receiver. I’d certainly rather have Nik over Nic, but if your budget is getting nicked, Nic is worth a pick as a punt.
IN: Ricky Collins WR – Saskatchewan, $4100 – Six receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown. Last time the Roughriders faced the Eskimos Ricky Collins seemed destined for CFL stardom, but instead has been more like Frisman Jackson. Week 3 made Collins THE must start value receiver of week four AND he hasn’t cracked 10 points on DraftKings since. Well, as the Wheel of Time is apt to do, it has brought us back to where we started. Collins has opportunity, a history of success against his opponent, a low price, and absolutely no one expecting anything from him this week.
Make the late swap from Bagg to Collins and use the extra $500 to upgrade from B.J. Cunningham to Fat Nik Lewis whose workload is well established and reliable, even with Carter in the lineup. None of these picks are pretty, but when you’re looking for value you take what you can get.