Week 11 NFL DFS AutoMattek Absolutes
Times have changed in DFS. When I first started writing the AutoMattek Absolutes six years ago, cash games were all anyone wanted to talk about. A majority of players considered themselves cash game grinders and tournaments were secondary to the 50/50’s, head to heads and double-ups.
That is no longer the case. Tournaments are the primary source of discussion and interest for both the casual and serious DFS players. As such, the content has to evolve with time. Throughout the 2019 NFL season, the AutoMattek Absolutes will be a hybrid GPP strategy/individual plays highlight column to help you get prepared for the Sunday main slate of tournaments.
Brian Hill Doesn’t Suck: Mining Value In Week 11
Brian Hill came on my podcast after I told him he sucked; now I am touting him for DFS? What a world we live in folks. Over the last two weeks, Ito Smith has been placed on IR and Devonta Freeman has suffered an ankle injury that will leave him out at least one week. All that Atlanta has left in the backfield is Hill, career special teamer Kenjon Barner, and fullback-style runner Qadree Ollison. Hill saw 20 carries and two targets after Freeman left the game last week and has rushed for a touchdown in back to back weeks. In a week where we have mega studs like CMC and Michael Thomas priced WAY up, I am planning on being VERY aggressive with Brian Hill and likely with J.D McKissic as well.
McKissic played over 70% of the Lions snaps last week after Ty Johnson left the game in the first quarter with a concussion. On a full PPR site like DraftKings, plays like McKissic where most of their value comes from receiving as opposed to rushing, actually get a little undervalued. McKissic might lose between the 20’s carries to Paul Perkins but in a game where Detroit is probably trailing from the get-go, McKissic seems like a really interesting play at $4,600 and someone that I will likely include in my MME mix.
Cutting The Fat At Quarterback
As the season has gone on, I have grown more steadfast in my belief that outside of Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson (and possibly DeShaun Watson), you should be fairly aggressively double-stacking and then adding a bring back with your quarterback. While there are many ways to skin a cat, the way that makes the most intuitive sense to me in building GPP lineups is to build them all out by quarterback. This is a great week to really concentrate your quarterback ownership and stacks, while letting your other favorite plays populate around them.
Last week was one of the first times I ran Lamar without a stack and both Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown had good games. Brown/Andrews were in my pool but I think that basically highlights the mistake in not forcing stacks even with running quarterbacks like Lamar. You are going to miss those spiked weeks for thinner plays like Brown and if you “skip” a week of forcing stacks, you are not trusting the process that the available math shows is the right way to approach NFL DFS a game theory perspective.
While you might think this is going to result in a ton of your lineups being duped or chalk, I can promise you that I won’t. Single stacking is fairly popular but many users do not do it in 100% of their lineups and you will still find more uncorrelated lineups than not in massive multi-entry tournaments. When you add the element of a bring back, you move your lineup a little further away from true optimal but you gain massive leverage on the field.
This game is going to get a lot of attention from the DFS talking heads and will be a big nationally televised game as well. With a total at 50, this isn’t Rams/Chiefs but both quarterbacks can add points with their legs and my plan of attack is to single stack both but force a bring back in every lineup they are in.
I am a little more interested in the Dallas/Detroit game than the market and think that my small, curated QB group this week is going to include Dak Prescott double stacks with Detroit bring backs. Dak has scored the fifth-most fantasy points amongst quarterbacks this season but has done so with no more than five rushing attempts in any game and only 27 attempts total thus far. Detroit is one of the pass-heavier teams in neutral game scripts this season which should 1) increase the viability of the Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones bring back. With all the attention paid to Panthers/Falcons and Saints/Bucs, my supposition is that Dallas/Detroit may be one of the lowest stacked game of the week despite the insane upside of all the pass-catchers involved.
You knew you weren’t going to get out of here without me touting the Bucs stack against the Saints. While Ronald Jones ran 99th percentile hot to do as well as he did last week in the passing game, we can expect this offense to return to their usual target distributions with a majority of the work going to split between Godwin and Evans. There is hopefully just a little bit of tilt towards the pair of Buccaneer’s studs after they were -EV plays last week. If I can get Mike Evans at under 15% this week, he may be my favorite play of the slate.
The Raiders Team Total And How To Not Melt Your Brain
Yes, the Raiders have the highest team total that they are going to have all season and one of the highest of the entire week, nevermind just the main slate. They are playing a Bengals team that just stone-cold gave up against the Ravens last week and committed to running the ball when they were down 30 points in the first half. You may have noticed that I didn’t discuss Derek Carr in my small group of stackable quarterbacks above. That is because I am not using Carr in tournaments.
Even with that team total, Carr just doesn’t have the 35+ point ceiling that is required to win serious money. Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs are going to be huge parts of my MME builds and are cash game/single/three-max core plays (particularly Waller). In fact, Jacobs will likely be one of my three highest owned players and I will still attempt to get leverage on him even if he is the chalkiest play on the board. All of that said, you do not need to be wasting your MME bullets on a quarterback who hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Week 13 of 2018.