WEEK 17 NFL DFS: Don’t Ya Wanta Devonta (Saturday Update)
Welcome to the 17th weekly edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each week throughout the NFL season our weekly NFL analysis will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the week based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Tre Mason (STL) – It’s a pretty short Saturday update with the Friday delivery of the original content and no ownership percentages to review, but the impact is rather large. Todd Gurley is doubtful, leaving Tre Mason as the likely starter in a great matchup against the 49ers. Game script is likely to be in his favor (Rams are 3.5 point favorites) and the 49ers rank 29th in defensive DVOA (Football Outsiders), 24th specifically against the run. There are four clear outliers from the rest of the NFL in terms of 4for4’s schedule-adjusted Fantasy points allowed to running backs, and the 49ers are in that group, allowing 32.4 PPR points per game. Mason has had two starts with very disappointing results, scoring just a combined 9.1 DraftKings points. Keep in mind, however, the sample size is small, the game script was horrible early in one of the starts, and Todd Gurley was present for the other start. There’s plenty of upside here in a good matchup at bare minimum pricing, and using Mason allows you to spend up for somewhere between 2-3 studs at the RB-WR positions around him. As we pointed out in the initial content run, the top three ranked RBs and top four ranked WRs all have strong matchups and are great cash game plays. We’d downgrade Jeremy Langford (CHI) (unless Forte ruled out) and Rashad Jennings (NYG) simply since we prefer Mason as the source of cap relief. There is enough uncertainty to warrant fading Mason in tournaments, especially if multi-entering and wanting to load up on expensive running backs on one of your teams.