Week Seven NFL DFS AutoMattek Absolutes
Times have changed in DFS. When I first started writing the AutoMattek Absolutes six years ago, cash games were all anyone wanted to talk about. A majority of players considered themselves cash game grinders and tournaments were secondary to the 50/50’s, head to heads and double-ups.
That is no longer the case. Tournaments are the primary source of discussion and interest for both the casual and serious DFS players. As such, the content has to evolve with time. Throughout the 2019 NFL season, the AutoMattek Absolutes will be a hybrid GPP strategy/individual plays highlight column to help you get prepared for the Sunday main slate of tournaments.
Don’t Fear The Falcon
Last week, Jared Goff had 78 passing yards. It was the lowest yardage total of his career and the only game of his career where he had thrown for under 100 yards with zero touchdowns and this was a player who was coached by the immortal Jeff Fisher. I *think* but am not sure that he was so bad last week that it might stem ownership off just a little bit against Atlanta. I still expect Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp to be popular options, if not outright chalk but I am certain that the stink bomb laid by the team last week will suppress their ownership somewhat.
The proper way to get after this game is to include Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and the running backs in your stacks with Goff. Yes, this means that even if it is….even if it is….ugh. Even if Todd Gurley is the lead running back for the Rams this week, you need to be including him in your Jared Goff/Matt Ryan groups.
Now, as of Wednesday, it is unclear how the backfield will shake out for the Rams. Todd Gurley is being listed as day-to-day with his quad contusion, and Malcolm Brown injured his ankle in Sunday’s loss to the 49ers. Regardless of how the backfield shakes out, you need to make the following rule:
Where things really get interesting is with the game stacks. The Rams just traded for Jalen Ramsey and have not been a defense susceptible to getting torched this season. They have allowed over 300 passing yards twice in six games but also have allowed 16 touchdowns in six games. Many people in the player pool will be content to stack one of the sides of this game but with a total at 54 and popular names on both sides, that isn’t going to cut it in terms of avoiding the chalk. You’ll need to be creating double stacks with players from each side of the game.
Those rules will establish the right way to set up your Atlanta sided teams. Now is where the real fun begins, as we set up the opposing stack rules for Ryan and Goff.
That same rule can be made for Matt Ryan with the pertinent skill position players for the Los Angeles Rams. Something that I also like to do with chalky pieces of game stacks is to make a rule in which they can only be used in those game stacks. That rule would look something like this:
With all of those rules established for the highest total game of the week, you can ensure two things. The first is that you will have exposure to the game that is on average likely to produce the most amount of fantasy points. Michael Leone would be yelling at me right now for touting the chalk so hard but this game is fairly unique in that both teams are extremely pass-heavy (huge boost to DK scoring) and the slate is relatively devoid of massively good games. Second, you are ensuring that your exposure to the chalk will almost certainly be unique and done in such a way that correlates with top 1% lineups far more efficiently than just playing Goff or Ryan with one of their pass catchers.
Watson SZN Continues
I am having a tough time getting a grasp on DeShaun Watson’s ownership this weekend. On one hand, he is coming off back to back games 30+ fantasy point games and was extremely chalky in both. On the other hand, the Houston/Indianapolis total is only 47 and the market seems to be trending away from DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller after disappointing performances last week. If Watson is going to project at 12% owned or more, he probably doesn’t make a fantastic play even when double stacked with Hopkins and Fuller.
On the other hand, the available stacks for this game are just too good for me to ignore in a week that doesn’t project as particularly high scoring (that does not mean that it won’t be a high scoring week but there are just not a ton of values at this moment in time).
I will be making the rule that I have made every week for DeShaun Watson and hoping that eventually, Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins can have a smash week in, well, the same week
Including Colts players in your stacks with Watson is an interesting avenue to take if Watson approaches being chalk. Looking at our projections right now, Watson is not even a top-five value so I would not anticipate him being overly owned but the #math shows that more correlation is better even if the individual options do not look great.
Outside of T.Y Hilton, the Colts do not have any overwhelmingly good DFS options. Marlon Mack is likely to get most of his DK points on the ground which has a negative correlation to Watson but the Colts are so distributed in targets after Hilton that it is hard to feel comfortable including them in game stacks. No Colts, other than Hilton, has more than 21 targets through five games. Only Hilton, Mack, and Eric Ebron have more than one touchdown.
Alright, okay, I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth here. The simplest way to make this rule is to allow only Hilton, Mack and the tight ends into your Watson bring back rule.
To be honest, I am not sure if I want to implement this rule in my personal rules. Does the historical math about how to win GPP’s say that this is the correct way to go about things? Absolutely. Does it feel really uncomfortable to know that basically all of your Will Fuller/DeAndre Hopkins lineups are going to have one of these Colts players who has a legit floor of 3-5 fantasy points? It feels mega uncomfortable. This is something I will be thinking about all the way up to kickoff on Sunday. If the Daily Roto projections have Ebron/Doyle/Mack all as positive values (Hilton one of the best values of the week regardless), I am probably pretty likely to be using bring backs with Watson.
Stacking against Miami has been such an interesting spot this year. The team gives up so many yards and points that you would expect stacks/double stacks to be almost bulletproof and they haven’t quite been. Lamar Jackson and Hollywood Brown were the million-dollar tandem in week one, Tom Brady and AB84 were let downs, the Chargers were not on GPP winning teams…the only team to produce a legitimate smash against the Dolphins was Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper with five touchdowns between the two of them.
So what do we do with Josh Allen, Frank Gore/Devin Singletary, and John Brown/Cole Beasley in Week Five as 16.5 point favorites at home against the hapless Dolphins? Well first off, this is definitely a situation where I am 0% interested in bring backs. My instinct is that the full onslaught with Allen + one rusher + one pass-catcher is not going to be owned cumulatively even if Allen/Singletary/Gore/Brown/Beasley all end up owned over 10% on their own.
The situation you are really trying to avoid is the Mark Ingram scenario from last week where he was 30% in Millionaire Maker but was just an abysmal standalone play. I am sort of afraid that Singletary’s return makes both he and Gore fairly bad plays but will of course side with the younger and more-involved-in-the-passing-game Singletary over Gore. Brown is going to be one of my highest exposure plays but I am certainly a little worried about jamming in chalk WR’s and will make an effort to try and match him with Allen as much as possible.