Week Six NFL DFS AutoMattek Absolutes
Times have changed in DFS. When I first started writing the AutoMattek Absolutes six years ago, cash games were all anyone wanted to talk about. A majority of players considered themselves cash game grinders and tournaments were secondary to the 50/50’s, head to heads and double-ups.
That is no longer the case. Tournaments are the primary source of discussion and interest for both the casual and serious DFS players. As such, the content has to evolve with time. Throughout the 2019 NFL season, the AutoMattek Absolutes will be a hybrid GPP strategy/individual plays highlight column to help you get prepared for the Sunday main slate of tournaments.
Lock Button: Chase Edmonds ENGAGED OR Keying On Kyler
If, in fact, David Johnson does not play in this game, Chase Edmonds is probably the best play of the season that we have had this far other than Wayne Gallman against Washington in Week Four. When Gallman started against Washington, I played him in 100% of my “Early Only” MME teams and in about 55% of my main slate lineups. That was a mistake; I should have played him in 100% of my teams.
The Cardinals do not have another running back on the roster who has received any touches at all this year and I would not expect D.J Foster to make more than a token appearance if DJ is inactive. There is also the fact that this is probably going to be the best DFS game of the week. Two very bad defenses, two turnover-prone quarterbacks and two offenses that prefer to throw the ball more than they run. This creates a chaotic, high-paced game environment where there are going to be a plethora of opportunities to score points.
Additionally, there really are not a ton of great value plays this week. If Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill do not play, we will be able to use Byron Pringle in game stacks and in cash games but I am not sure he makes a great one-off play (very similar to Auden Tate last week). Edmonds, on the other hand, would just be the best play of the slate. I think you could reasonably defend 80-100% exposure to him.
Also, our weekly Kyler Murray keys are in effect with this game (this is our hedge group will all possible active players, the projections will sort out the rest):
You also could very easily make a Kyler Bring Back group with a minimum of one Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, or Austin Hooper.
For what is now the sixth week in a row, I will continue to attack the fast-paced Cardinals offense and the primary skill positions playing against them. The Lions and Panthers games were very close to full-out fantasy bonanzas and the big one is coming.
Jared Goff Double Keys
After seeing Goff “struggle” on national TV a number of times this year and then watching the San Francisco 49ers crush the Browns on Monday Night Football, my instinct is that other than Cooper Kupp, we really aren’t going to see Rams players being owned. Regardless of the concussion status of Brandin Cooks, Goff is a really good stack with two of his pass-catchers. Todd Gurley is running over expectation in terms of touchdowns and Goff leads the NFL in passing attempts.
The Rams actually run the fastest seconds/play offense in the NFL (faster than Arizona) and San Francisco ranks fourth in seconds per play in neutral game scripts. I am not sure that most people reacting to this matchup would imagine it to be the fastest-paced game of the week but with the data we have from the last five weeks, that is, in fact, the case.
As such, there is another unique opportunity. If you believe in ANY of the San Francisco 49ers pass catchers other than George Kittle, you are going to get them at probably under 1% owned and in a really good game script. This could be Dante Pettis, Marquise Goodwin, Deebo Samuel, or even the running backs. Probably the best rule to make is just a correlated key boost for George Kittle in Jared Goff lineups.
Inefficient Bellcows: Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb
Without Christian McCaffrey on the slate, running back is thrown a little in flux. We know that Chase Edmonds will be the most popular and best play of the week if David Johnson were to sit out against the Falcons but there are not a ton of answers after that. The New York Jets are big underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys but Le’Veon Bell has been handling over 90% of the teams snaps and over 90% of the backfield work in total. Leonard Fournette is in the exact same camp as Bell but is actually favored against the New Orleans Saints and is playing at home.
Chubb, I think, is by far the most interesting play. The entire DFS playing audience just saw him and his teammates get dunked on by the San Francisco 49ers and now we all think Freddie Kitchens can’t coach an NFL team and Baker sucks and yada yada yada. Chubb also has the sixth most rushing attempts in the NFL, the fourth-most rushing yards and has had four targets or more in four of the Browns five games. The Browns are back at home and very slight underdogs to a Seattle defense that is far from the stout unit that it used to be.
Bell and Fournette are likely going to be popular plays. Bell gets such a great receiving share and is priced so low that it is hard for me to imagine even casual DFS players passing on him. It seems as if DraftKings priced New York Jets players as if Luke Falk was still the quarterback. The same deal goes for Fournette. He has over 30 touches in back to back games for the Jaguars and is arguably in even a better script this week (though I think that there are some LOL stats about the New Orleans Saints #Run #defense milling about the internet). Both of these guys should pretty clearly make your MME mix and I think are in consideration for cash games as well.
It is Chubb who is really the question mark for the public. Will people look past some of his massive inefficiency spots and play him because of how he crushed the Ravens? I am not sure but lean on the side of no, people will not be as incentivized to play him. As such, Chubb is one of the few players who I think could touch the ball 25 times or more on this slate and one of the few guys who could score three times on the slate and I will be making him a priority in MME.
How To Handle Will Fuller
Coming off of what will undoubtedly be the game of Will Fuller’s career, he is priced at $6,000 on DraftKings and is in the #GameOfTheWeek against Kansas City. He is, of course, going to be popular (as he should be every week) but that doesn’t mean you can’t play him. You do not have to just fade the chalk for the sake of fading the chalk. There are ways to create unique lines with him.
The first is to ensure that he isn’t being used as a one-off but only in game stacks. You can do that by first making him match up with exactly one of the QB’s in this game.
Then you make sure that you have groups created out for both quarterbacks that set them up to be used in game stacks as well. This is particularly applicable for Mahomes and Watson because they are two of the highest-priced quarterbacks of the week and for them to be optimal, they probably have to get 35+ which will only happen with explosion games from their wide receivers.
Then, on the reverse, you make a similar rule for DeShaun Watson.
And finally, if you are really trying to just make sure that you only have these incredibly chalky players in game stacks, you make the “bring back” rules. I need to think more about how the bring back rules are going to work with Mahomes lineups, specifically, Forcing those bring backs will probably ensure that Byron Pringle and Damien Williams end up in most of the Mahomes lineups which is probably fine but unsure if it is optimal.
The biggest thing we are trying to avoid is getting Will Fuller in lineups as a one off. Of course, he is a great play against a weak Chiefs defense in a really high total game but playing wide receiver chalk that doesn’t project as AMAZING (the way Fuller did when he was cheap) is just generally not going to be a long term winning strategy so I am fine using Fuller only in double-stacks and game stacks.